Filling Out the Line Up Card

Looking into the post season - past the drama of the manager search and media-fueled blame game - it's time to start speculating about the players we'll see on the field next year. Let's look at a few areas by position:

• Not changing: first base, second base, leftfield, centerfield.
• Catcher - The Sox should be very happy with Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate. The man his 16 homers in 103 games and became a much better catcher by the end of the year. That, and he's 26 years old, massive, has tasted the bitterness of failure, and switch hits. That said, the Sox want to find a place for Ryan Lavarnway. There's a good shot they don't invite Tek back and they go with these two. My ideal is that they teach Lavarnway to play third in addition to catcher and first, but that seems unlikely. They could also keep all three catchers and not Papi. They then rotate Lavarnway, Gonzo, Youk and others through the DH spot. That said, I expect Salty and Tek to start the season on the roster with Lavarnway forcing his way up early on due to an injury.
• Short - The Sox will likely enter the season just as they did last year. They will resign Scutaro to a one or two year deal, hope that Lowrie forces his way onto the field, and that this year is the year that Jose Iglesias learns to hit. After this year, they will have to decide if Lowrie will every be healthy and if Iglesias will ever hit. Scutaro could be a solid sub for a few more years but they'll need more soon.
• Third - Youk didn't look the same last year. He's 32 years old and hasn't played a full season either of the last two years. He doesn't strike anyone as the type of athlete who will play third into his late 30s. The Sox should try to get one more year out of Youk with Lowrie (or Mike Avilies) as a solid backup. They will hope that Will Middlebrook develops at Pawtucket and is ready to compete with Youk in 2013. By that point, Youk will either be struggling to keep a job or he'll be ready to move toward the comfy armchair of DH. I hope for the former but frankly expect the later. If Middlebrook looks years away, Lavarnway can't try 3B, and there's no good reason to expect Youk to improve, there's a decent chance that the Sox look to move on from Youk this off season.
• Rightfield - JD Drew is likely to retire and, even if he doesn't, Cherington isn't going to take the heat that would come with bringing back "Nancy." So, that leaves us with Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick or J.C. Linares as the possibilities in right. The Sox will have to sign someone to compete with these guys. I'd love to see Kalish take it but it's unlikely - and a good problem to have. This is the position most likely to be taken by a new acquisition.
  
• Starting Pitching - the Sox clearly need a 4 and 5 starter. There's an outside chance that a youngster will grab one of those spots, but Doubront, Tazawa, Alex Wilson, and Weiland don't look like quality major league starters at this point. The Sox will have to be busy in this market.
• Relief Pitching - this is where I am most concerned because losing Pap means Bard will likely be the closer. We don't know how he'll do there. Assuming he does well, we have a massive hole in the set up role. I have a hunch that Michael Bowden might be a great reliever, but that's pretty much baseless. The Sox will have to get a few solid free agents here and give some shots to the aforementioned youngsters. It's not looking good.
  

The Lost Decade

By nature I am an optomist. As the Sox season came careening to an end, I wasn't down on their prospects for next year. They had talent on the mound and all over the field. There was only one real threat to making a serious run in 2012: overreacting.

The Sox fell apart because they lost most of their starting pitching in early Sept. and then failed to stop that free fall in the last few weeks. From Aug. 31 to Sept. 16, Josh Beckett pitched 3.2 innings. When he came back, he struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts. That's normal and not alarming if it happens in June.

Jon Lester pitched during that time period but it was evident something wasn't right. He might have been in a slump or tired, but it didn't have to do with drinking with John Lackey. His four straight loses at the end of the season (against Tampa twice, the Yankees, and, of course, Baltimore (fie to thee Baltimore!)) were very disappointing but, again, would not have been alarming had it happened in May rather than at the same time as Beckett was struggling to return to effectiveness.

Prior to this period, Lester and Beckett were legitimate Cy Young candidates. Don't forget that as we pile on. Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz last pitched on June 16 and John Lackey last pitched in 2009 for the California Angels of Anaheim in California of America. Did anyone really expect Kyle Weiland or even Alfredo Aceves to fill that void? Aceves never was and never will be an answer as a starter but he's a revelation as a reliever.

The Sox fell apart and did not make the playoffs because they did not play well enough to make it. They did not play well enough because their starting pitching fell apart. Their starting pitching fell apart because... shit happens and pitching is a complex and unnatural motion done at 90+ miles an hour.

Terry Francona is the best manager in Red Sox history. His failing last year was that he did not turn his team around after it fell off a cliff in early Sept. He does deserve some blame for that. However, this is not football where a manager can game plan is way to a victory here and there. Baseball doesn't work that way.

I wish we as fans and especially the Boston media could accept failure in sports as simply a failure to play better than your opponent. Generally, it's not a moral failing; it's not a lack of leadership; and it's not a single player's fault. The baseball team lost because they did not play as well as the other baseball team on the field.

The Sox did lack a rightfielder and saw a disappointing lack of production from Carl Crawford. That said, Crawford had a bad year and still had the 6th best OPS of any starting leftfielder in the AL. In rightfield, JD Drew had a remarkably bad year (worst OPS of any rightfielder in baseball with at least 250 plate appearances) and Josh Reddick (18th on that list) couldn't adjust to pitchers' adjustment to him - he batted .208 in Aug. That said, with Drew's contract expiring and Reddick (24) and Ryan Kalish (23) both coming to a do or die crossroads in their respective careers, the franchise is at a point where it can bring in someone and open up a competition with the young guys. That's a good place to be.

The franchise's reaction to the collapse was to panic - a panic that reeks of micro-management from the ownership. They have let their manager walk away; they have made stupid comments insinuating they don't stand behind Crawford; allowed Theo Epstein to head to Wrigley; and allowed a whirlwind of rumors to overtake the baseball side of baseball to the point at which Globe reporters are asking Tampa's manager about drinking in the clubhouse and indirectly comparing Jon Lester's possible beer consumption with Oil Can Boyd's.

We have not appreciated enough the steady hand with which Tito guided the Sox. Perhaps more important than anything, his calm demeanor with the media and his steady hand on the lineup card weathered the numerous storms that characterizes baseball in New England. When calls came to bench that tiny rookie second baseman, give up on the skinny righty who flamed out after a no hitter, and to release the team's Dominican DH leader, Tito stuck to his guns and his long-range plan. Good luck finding someone else who can do that as effectively.

I am not a huge fan of Theo. He was a good general manager but he tends to get more credit then he deserves in part because he's young, local and his presence in the front office correlates with our franchise's revival, but he made a number of bad long-term decisions and wasn't part of the Beckett-Lowell trade that led us to World Series #2. That said, letting Theo walk (rather than giving him the club president's job which is what I'm guessing he was waiting for) and letting Tito go in the aftermath of the greatest collapse in baseball history indicates that the team is in fact in chaos and that the answer from on high is that Henry-Lucchino-Warner will grab the reigns tighter. When that happens, you sign Danny Tartabull and you convince yourself that Don Mattingly is a franchise player. Remember?

I hope I'm wrong but I think the Sox are entering a lost decade during which they will lead with their wallets and not a long-term plan. They will get a manager who's brilliant but can't deal with the media or the team personalities. They will drive Peddy to a point at which his head explodes with frustration and they'll sign 32-year old "sure things" to play outfield rather than letting someone like Ryan Kalish grow into the job. It's not looking good.

Trading Deadline

The Sox come away from the trading deadline with a new utility infielder who has a solid record with the bat especially against lefties (Mike Aviles) and a lefty starter with arguably one of the most dynamic arms in the game and likely one of the least reliable medical charts - or most reliable if you are relying on him to not pitch (Erik Bedard).

What do we think?

The Sox are the best team in baseball right now with only the Phillies as a legitimate rival - I repeat "right now". One of the common misconceptions during the trade deadline is that you can fix your problems if you want to. This is especially misguided when it comes to pitching - which happens to be the biggest question for the Sox as long as Buchholz sits on the sidelines.

Aside from selling the farm for Ubaldo Jimenez - who's not having a great year but has serious talent - there are few pitcher's out there that are actually guaranteed to be an improvement on the back three of the Sox rotation: Lackey, Wakefield, and my mom. The grass is greener on the other mound.

The fact is that the Sox picked up a very talented pitcher for a moderate price (Fife will be a solid reliever in the majors and Federowicz will be, at worst, a solid backup catcher but that wasn't going to happen with the Sox with Lavarnway ready to join Salty next year). If the Sox have a chance of upgrading over Lackey and Wake, aside from Buch, the only chance of that happening is Bedard finding his grove again. This is a guy whose last year with the O's struck out 221 in 182 innings. He's not that guy anymore but he still has some stuff in the left arm.

Aviles is the insurance for Scut, Peddy and Youkilis that it seems Jed Lowries just won't be. If he can learn a bit of outfield, maybe he can even platoon with Reddick. Oh yeah, there's that.

The Sox did not get Beltran or Fukadome. That is likely in part due to the price, but it's also a vote of confidence that Reddick will grab this opportunity - or that the real JD Drew will step up.

So, the Sox likely improved themselves. But they also know that they are a great team right now and might improve further with Buchholz returning - and who knows, maybe JD Drew will remember how to hit.

'Overpaid'

J.D Drew is making $14 million this year to hit .230 with 4 homeruns. All the while his stoicism makes him seem like he would rather be anywhere else but playing a boys game for millions of dollars every summer.

This year's minimum wage for a major leaguer is $414,o00. So, when infielder Angel Sanchez - this year's #2 hitter for the Astros (sorry Millsy) - played one game for the Sox last year he earned something like $2,500 for a day's work.

Are they worth it?

This is a question that comes up often - especially in the person on J.D. "Nancy" Drew. He's carried the team at times, usually had a very high on-base percentage, decent power numbers, wonderful defense, and played about 130-140 games in 3 of his first 4 years here. But he also gets paid a massive sum while playing a joyless - if solid - brand of baseball. He has a reputation as being soft and underachieving.

But my question has always been: why do we the fans care what the rightfielder is paid?

There's an interesting desire for a sense of fairness that raises its head in the context of "overpaid" major leaguers. We like to think a player can be worth what's he's paid. We base that analysis largely on how a player's salary compares to other players. Then we ask:

How did that player play compared to players in the same tax bracket?
Drew is the 11th highest paid outfielder in the majors. Only 3 of the players paid more than him would I actually take over him (Carl Crawford, Matt H0lliday, and Ichiro). In that context, he's no more overpaid than a number of other folks like Jason Bay and Vernon Wells.

How does he compare to his teammates?
Drew is the 4th highest paid player on the Sox (behind Beckett, Lackey and Crawford). So that means he's more valuable than Youk and Peddy!?!? For shame! However, that's a simplistic analysis. Youk and Peddy are shorter tenured and have not tested the free agent market. They - along with another of other prominent younger, homegrown Sox - decided to sign long-term deals before they hit the market. They chose security over maximum dollars. That's the anti-Drew approach. Drew is loathed in Philly for holding out for a whole year rather than sign a deal with them, then signing a big ground-breaking contract with St. Louis the next year. He's always gone for max dollars - adding to his bad reputation. Scott Boras probably has a bronzed statue of Drew in his lobby as the ideal client.

How did he live up to expectations?
Drew came to the Sox with oddly high expectations. His first 8 full season were pretty similar to his next 4 with the Sox. But he's always been a big name with a beautiful swing, tons of talent, and an aura of under-utilized talent.

So, that's part of the story of the lens through which fans see J.D. Drew's contract.

But why do we care?

J.D. Drew's contact really don't matter when it comes to whether or not the Sox win. At no point has Drew's contract really prevented the Sox' leadership from stepping up and paying for the talent they want. Just look at Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

Second, the money isn't really ours. Indirectly, we are the people that put in the money - in ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, etc. - that make these salaries possible. But I don't feel like I'm paying J.D. Drew.

It comes down to a sense of fairness. It's not fair that he gets paid that to be a decent player! He should at least play with the dirtdog approach of his predecessor Trot Nixon (left) or manic passion of Peddy.

The fact is the J.D. Drew was paid what the market wanted to pay him at the time. He has been a solid player until now. But he'll always be disliked in Boston - albeit slightly less than in Philly. I somehow don't expect to see Drew talking baseball in the NESN pre-game in the future. He'll fade into history unceremoniously - perhaps as soon as this winter - and Sox fan's will complain about him for years despite not really having a reason to hate him so much.

The Bullpen Through May

The Sox are in good shape in the bullpen. Papelbon has been very solid - unspectacular perhaps but solid. He has a 2.91 ERA, 29 strikeouts in 21 innings with only 3 walks. Bard looks good as well. Similarly, he's not been untouchable but there's nothing there to be concerned about.

The next two in the bullpen pecking order - counting from closer to Dennis Lamp - were supposed to be Bobby Jenks and Hideki Okajima (arguably). Oki seems to be done. He'll make another appearance in Boston this year, but I think this is his last and it's very unlikely he'd be added to any postseason roster. He recently cleared waivers and returned to Pawtucket.

Jenks still has the power stuff but when he's been bad, he's been painfully bad. He's rehabbing in Pawtucket right now. He has a 9.35 ERA but he also only pitched 11 games including one where he gave up 4 runs in a third of an inning and the last three appearance before going onto the DL in which he gave up 5 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. He'll still be a major contributor this year and in all likelihood a key bridge between the starters and PapelBard.

Every good bullpen involves successful scrap. So it's a good sign that the Sox have so far found two unexpectedly good bullpen cogs. Righty Matt Albers had his bad moments lately. But he still looks like Bobby Jenks with more movement. I think Tito sees that Albers is on the cusp of a breakthrough and he's trying to feed that fire. It's looking good.

Meanwhile, lefty Rich Hill has looked rock solid so far. The big question, especially since he has a new sidearm motion and has mostly been a starter, is what will he do when - not if - he fails in the spotlight. How will he bounce back? I am hopeful but the Sox might still need a lefty out there.

The Sox just called up Michael Bowden from Pawtucket in exchange for recently acquired lefty Franklin Morales who went on the DL. I really think Bowden might be a special bullpen guy. Watching him start he always seemed to have that agressive approach of any good bullpen guy. One of these years he's going to stay. I think this might be that moment.

Dan Wheeler was supposed to be rock solid with his AL East background, his return home, and the fact that the solid middle-man is the same role he's succeeded at before. His stuff isn't very good but it never has been. I hope he shows us.

After that you have Alfredo Aceves who has been very solid as a started and for whom my only concern is that he will suffer a let down after pitching so well as a started and still being sent back to the pen when John Lackey returns.

Lastly, Tim Wakefield's time in the bullpen relies on the well-founded belief that you really need 6 starters. And Scott Atchison was solid last year and will be just as solid this year if he gets a chance. Given the players in front of him, I frankly hope he doesn't get that chance.

As we knew at the start of the year, the Sox have questions in finding a bullpen lefty and there's a bit of a problem with some folks changing roles or locations. That said, the Sox are in very good shape. The greatest concerns coming into the season really haven't panned out: is Papelbon on the down slope and was Bard a one-hit wonder.

The Sox have one of the best pens in the game. There's a little room for improvement and I'm not totally sold on Albers and Hill, but it's looking good.

The Hot Corner

Last year, the Sox were in terrible organizational shape at 3B. Sure, at the top we had Adrian Beltre who turned out to be spectacular, having one of the better seasons for a Red Sox third baseman ever - good company with Boggs ('87, or almost any), Mike Lowell ('07, wow), Mueller ('03), Butch Hobson ('79), Carney Lansford ('81) - and Lowell was still on the roster. But below that we had Jorge Jimenez who might have some talent but the Sox didn't seem to broken up about his brief Rule V stay with the Marlins - and this year he might well lose even a starting spot in Pawtucket.

This year, the Sox are in a nearly ideal spot for the 2011 season and going forward. They got there through strong drafts and the AGon trade.

Kevin Youklis has, of course, moved across the diamond to third. I will say again that I have some doubts still that he'll excel there defensively, but I also think he won't be a liability. His range is fine, his arm is ok and he plays smart. Meanwhile, he'll hit a ton and get some MVP votes if he stays healthy.

Immediately behind Youklis is Jed Lowrie. While I expect Lowrie to win the shortstop position out of spring training, if Youklis were to get hurt and Lowrie were to say healthy, Jed would slide right into the hot corner and probably play outstanding defense while being a tough out with a some pop.

This means the Sox are set at third for probably the next two seasons. Youk is signed through 2012 with a team option for 2013. Lowrie could be a free agent in 2015 and arbitration eligible in 2012. That's plenty of major league insurance.

Youk will be 34 heading into that 2013 season and will in all likelihood - if he's still with the Sox - be looking at an at-least-part time roll as the DH - Papi will have retired by then and will be making millions as a spokesman for every brand in the region ("Bob's Discount Furniture. Da beds are strong enough for even the Big Papi. Come on dowwwwwn!"). By that point, the Sox might have some internal options to replace or supplement Youk at third.

Yamaico Navarro will probably have to have a breakout offensive year in 2011 to have a chance at starting someday at third, but I wouldn't rule that out. Tito said this about the kid who's known mostly for his flashy albeit inconsistent glove at short: "A little overanxious at the plate. ... You kind of see him not try to control his emotions but he can almost look, not laid back, but it doesn’t mean he doesn’t care. He’s trying to figure things out. He’s an interesting guy because his bat speed is just phenomenal.” Phenomenal bat speed to me means power potential. Mike Andrews of SoxProspects.com writes on ESPN.com that Navarro has the "strength and the bat speed required of a middle-of-the-order bat, but ... (hasn't) shown the ability to consistently hit major league breaking pitches." Navarro is only 23 so there's time to see if he might be a late blooming power threat for the hot corner, or if he's destined for utility infielder status.

The Sox have two other high ceiling but very young prospects in the lower minors. Will Middlebrook, 22, looks to play in Portland this year. He's a big kid - 6'4" 200lbs - with lots of power potential. Portland will test his maturity this year and we'll see if his power can really develop. SoxProspects.com says he's an excellent defensive thirdbaseman with high power potential. He's young enough also to take his time to improve as a hitter in Portland and Pawtucket and see if maybe in 2013 he can force his way into the Fens.

Then there's Garin Cecchini coming out of high school. He's only 19 and a long ways off, but the potential is definitely there to maybe even be a start in 3-4 years. This kid has enough talent to have outshined the all powerful Bryce Harper on Team USA 18 and under. He's a long way off but he's exactly the type of player the Sox have brought picked up due to the un-slotted draft system which has allowed them to make up for their lack of draft position by offering to spend big bucks of talented players like Cecchini who basically say pay me or I'll go to school. It's a messed up system that I've heard will be changed after this next draft - but I'm glad the Sox have taken advantage of it as long as they could.

Lastly, the Sox have Kolbrin Vitek, 21, who they picked in the first round last year and frankly looks on paper a lot like Lowrie and Pedroia did. They are polished hitters, infielders who might rise quickly through the ranks. Vitek could be a factor before the likes of Middlebrook and Cecchini.

And lastly lastly, I always wonder if offensively talented catchers who might be stumbling a bit defensively at a very difficult position might be moved to 3B. Could Luis Esposito or Ryan Lavarnway learn the hot corner? Just a thought.

The Sox have a likely All Star right now with Kevin Youklis - he'll have a better chance fighting it out there with Longoria and A-Rod than he did at first. They have totally capable backup at the major league level in Lowrie. And now they have amassed a large number of high-ceiling, young minor league thirdbasemen, at least one of whom should be ready when Youk is ready to start DHing some. This couldn't be much better.

The Roster

The Sox management has clearly succeeded in filling out the team almost exactly as they planned. Sure, they'd love it if one of their starting outfielders batted righty, if they knew for sure Jed Lowrie wouldn't come down with Leprosy, if they knew what they were going to get from Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K, and (only maybe) an established lefty reliever.

I thought it was time to take a look at the projected roster with some commentary (italics are the at-risk spots and I indicated lefty/switch in parentheses).

Starting Nine
CF Ellsbury (l)
2B Pedroia
LF Crawford (l)
1B AGon (l)
3B Youk
DH Papi (l)
C Salty (s)
RF Drew (l)
SS Scutaro

The biggest question here is the order. To what extend will Francona try to break up the 5 lefties? Where will Crawford bat? I feel his speed will help the top of the order and I'm not worried about a Tony Fossas-type against Carl and AGon. The other questions would be Scutaro or Lowrie (probably Jed if they are both healthy) and where do you put Drew.

Bench
Inf. Lowrie (s)
OF Cameron
C Varitek (s)
OF McDonald

I can't seem to figure out what the contract status of McDonald is. I think he's a free agent but people assume he's coming back. I love the guy but it might be better to look for a guy who could also play some infield. Their talent on the bench is great but it's rather shallow and has some health, age questions.

Starters
Lester (l)
Beckett
Buchholz
Lackey
Matsuzaka
The others: Wake, Doubront, and, later in the season, maybe Junichi Tazawa (coming off Tommy John), Kyle Weiland or Alex Wilson(in Portland last year).

Despite the acquisitions this offseason, this is still the difference maker for this team. Two young stars, two former star horses, and a wildcard as #5. That's fantastic.

Relievers
Papelbon
Bard
Jenks
Wheeler
Albers
Atchison
Wakefield
The others: Prospects Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront (l), and vets Andrew Miller (l), Rich Hill (l), Lenny DiNardo (l), Randy Williams (l), Robert Coello, and Matt Fox all have some major league experience. In the minors there are righties Jason Rice (in Portland last year), bonus baby Anthony Ranaudo (hasn't pitched in the pros yet), and Bryce Cox.

This bullpen would be all righties but who do you drop? This is a big bullpen already (7 members) so you can't add someone. I think this could force Wake to retire after spring training baring any injury to a starter or could force a surprise cut or trade. That said, the lefties, Miller DiNardo and Hill, will need to make the Sox to drop someone. This management has never bought into the need for a lefty in the bullpen - but then they give in at some point. I think the Sox would like to let Doubront begin the season starting in Pawtucket then come up mid-season as a reliever if needed. Bowden will have to make a case that he's 100% ready and reliable. I bet he goes to Pawtucket to perfect the art of relieving.

The Bench:
Outfielders Ryan Kalish (l), Daniel Nava (s) and Josh Reddick (l) could all play in the majors now but all three are basically lefties (Nava stinks batting righty). Portland's defensive wiz Che-Hsuan Lin might be a dark horse to appear in Boston this year since he's their top righthanded hitting outfield in the minors.

Infielders... not much there. 1B Lars Anderson and IF Yamaico Navarro tasted the majors last year but neither is really ready to play consistently (btw, watch out for Yamaico if he learns to drive the ball. He showed some power in the fall league and Francona already marveled at his bat speed). This looks like a spot for some minor league free agents (e.g. Darnell McDonald or Nick Green) or dark horse (like Nate Spear or Brent Dlugach) to impress in spring training and something might work out for them - especially with Scutaro aging, Peddy coming off a bad injury and Lowrie injury/sickness-prone until he proves otherwise. SS phenom Jose Iglesias might get a taste this year as well which would set up a battle with Lowrie for 2012 - this is Lowrie's year to become a star or a career super sub (if he's healthy I think he's a star).

At catcher, Mark Wagner in Pawtucket would be the first call up if needed but he can't hit. After that they hope that Ryan Lavarnway can continue his now-rapid accent. He looks like a perfect backup to Salty if Salty finally lives up to expectations. Lavarnway is a powerful righty who could probably learn to play a little first and DH to get some extra at bats. Luis Espisito is also on the radar and has a high ceiling.

Every year there's a player who comes out of no where to make the team or at least play a very significant roll. My picks for the Nick Green award would be Nate Spear finding playing time in the infield due to some injury and Robert Coello carving out a roll for himself in the pen.


Side note: Some writers have said that Lars Anderson (23 yrs old) and 3B Will Middlebrooks (in single-A) are now expendable since the AGon acquisition. That's absurd. Those are exactly the kinds of kids you let play and grow in the minors while you don't need them in the majors. Make Lars and Middlebrooks improve to the point where they are forcing you to let them play in the majors, at which point you move someone (like Youk to DH post-Papi) or trade someone when they are valuable. Don't trade mid-level prospects with high ceilings just because you have major league talent at their respective positions. We traded Jeff Bagwell because the team already had thirdbasemen Wade Boggs and (2-time All Star?) Scott Cooper in Boston and Pawtucket respectively. That worked out well.

Bonus: if you've read this long the you deserve a good laugh. Check out this picture of minor league reliever Blake Maxwell or, as I've dubbed him, "clown college" here.