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Bring it on

I hope Buchholz had a good night sleep last night. He's likely to get the call early on today given the way Dice-K has "pitched" lately. Tavarez would also be an option, but he pitched 3 innings on Wednesday and Tito would have a tough time not pulling the trigger on bringing in the star of the hour on the biggest stage. He has at least sipped the kool aid with the rest of us. Maybe we can get some more dominate, "structured" innings from Clay.

As Gordon Edes points out this morning, the Sox have played .600 ball since the break (53-34) but have still dropped from a 9 1/2 game lead to 5 1/2. The Yankees have simply been that good in the second half. The Sox have some serious long-term worries in the health- and/or fatigue-caused struggles of Dice-K and Wake. They have more short term worries as well, like how many games this weekend will Manny play and how is he swinging. Yet, they remain in a strong position. The Yankees hold a "comfortable" lead in the wild card at 3 1/2 games while our 5 1/2 is tenuous? This is reasonable only in that we're chased by the Yankees while the Yankees are chased by a reeling Tigers squad. The Sox should win at least 2 games this weekend and thus have a 6 1/2 game lead going into the final weeks.

There are serious concerns about whether the Sox are good enough to win it all. Yet, barring a complete collapse, they remain in a great position to take the division.
Friday - 7:05pm, Dice-K vs. Pettite
Saturday - 3:55pm, Beckett vs. Wang
Sunday - 8:05pm, Schill vs. the Rocket (same time as the Pats' game!)

Comments

Smitch said…
First, just as a matter of clarification, the sox are 36-24 since, but the percentages are basically the same, which is surprising, since it seems like we've been treading water at points. 9-3 in September has been pretty big.

I was thinking about it this morning, and there are 31 team games left in this race (15 for us and 16 for the yanks), 11 of which need to go our way (either a sox win or a yanks loss). That's pretty good. Of course, 3 of those are head-to-head, which makes this weekend esp. big. And I'm not sure whether you put much stock in these sorts of things, but Baseball Prospectus has a postseason odds calculator that runs a simulation of the rest of the season a million times, and that puts the sox at 97% for winning the division.

I like them odds.

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