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Showing posts from October, 2008

The Decider

Here is some reporting on what I thought was the single most important play of the game, and thus the series, and thus the season. From the Hartford Courant:
J.D. Drew felt cheated. Batting with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning of a 3-1 game, Drew believed he had checked his swing on a 1-and-2 pitch from rookie David Price. But plate umpire Brian Gorman, without asking for help, said Drew did not hold up the swing and called him out, ending the Red Sox's last best chance to tie or take the lead. "I saw the ball pretty well," Drew said. "I didn't think I went around. That being said, it felt like the bat was taken away from me. I felt like a had a good chance in that at-bat. He got ahead of me quick, but if I check my swing, ask the third base umpire. The home plate umpire calls balls and strikes. Let the other guy make up his mind. That's the only thing that hurt me."From the Boston Globe: "I don't think I went around," …

Prediction

The Red Sox will only win this series if they win a game late, taking advantage of the fact that the Rays are without a clear closer since Troy Percival went down for the year.

Overall the teams are very even. The Sox have an advantage with Lester, Beckett and Dice-K over Sheilds, Kazmir and Garza; but it's very close and probably about even when you factor in Wake against Sorranstine.

The bullpens are both good. Both teams have five guys they have comfidence in. Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell are really nasty and very similar to Delcarman and Oki. Trever Miller is the Javy Lopez lefty specialist. We know Chad Bradford already. The wild card could be David Price - the number one overall pick a year ago is a dominant young lefty starter. I'd hate to see him get comfident out there in one inning bursts. The advantage the Sox have is that we have a dominant closer and they have a functional Dan Wheeler. We need to beat their late inning guys once. Tony Massarotti wrote thi…

Master... ful?

I just don't understand why Tito has decided seemingly arbitrarily that Masterson is his main squeeze. Masterson is a very good rookie and I am confident that he will succeed most of the time.

As a reliever, Masterson's numbers are very good. Yet, it seems that Tito is going with his gut on this guy and that he just doesn't trust my man mini-Manny. Delcarman, post-All Star break (which I think is a fair apples-to-apples comparison to Masterson as a reliever), had very good numbers, and that doesn't even account for some things that my traditional-baseball-loving mind values such as post season experience and bouncing back from defeat.
Masterson as reliever: 2.36 ERA, 27 games, 34 innings, 29 strikeouts, 12 walks, 2 homers, .231 batting average against, and 1.18 walks and hits per innings pitched.Delcarman in second half: 1.82 ERA, 30 games, 34 innings, 33 strikeouts, 13 walks, 2 homers, .161 BAA, and 0.94 WHIP.I simply see no reason for this change aside from somethin…

Live Blog - Game 1

1st inning - I didn't like either half of it. It's a cardinal sin to lose an opportunity in the first inning to score when all it would have taken was Pedroia moving Jacoby over. By the way, can you have a worse call than the one on the ball Jacoby hit? "It's playable" Really? You don't say that unless you're sure. I also didn't like how tight the strike zone was with Lester and how he had trouble getting a strike with the curve. 2nd inning - Both pitchers looked great. I think the Sox can hit Lackey. Or, he's going to drive me batty cause they won't hit his non-dominant stuff. Lester looked very sharp in inning two.3rd top- Tek should bunt... oops... Jacoby should run, though I'm guessing from the announcers that Napoli can throw, then again it's TBS... a friend just asked me what i thought of the steal meter: I hate it. Reminds me of Fox's godforsaken dancing robot during football games... Papi should have hit that ba…

My Pick

The Red Sox will win this series if, and only if, Beckett has one healthy start. The Sawx match up well pitching wise with the Angels. I don't think Lackey and Saunders are great pitchers, especially because power pitching wins in the playoffs and neither is a big armed guy. Santana is a big arm, but he walks a lot of guys and the Sox should be able to keep him to no more than 6 innings.

The angels are presumed to have the better pen, but K-Rod and Shields are hitable. When mini-Manny and Paps are one, they are unhitable.

It's going to be very hard to win these series and, frankly, if I weren't biased, I'd probably call it 3-2 the other way. But, I am biased.

The Sox will win 3-2.


Small side note: I had hoped the Sox would bring Jeff Bailey onto the roster. At this point, if Lowell completely breaks down, they would have to play a lefty (Casey or Kotsay) at first, unless the Lowell's put on the DL, in which case we'd lose him for the rest of the current and a…