BosoxWally's Red Sox Blog

Filling Out the Line Up Card

2011-11-19T20:03:00.002-05:00

Looking into the post season - past the drama of the manager search and media-fueled blame game - it's time to start speculating about the players we'll see on the field next year. Let's look at a few areas by position:

Not changing: first base, second base, leftfield, centerfield.
Catcher - The Sox should be very happy with Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate. The man his 16 homers in 103 games and became a much better catcher by the end of the year. That, and he's 26 years old, massive, has tasted the bitterness of failure, and switch hits. That said, the Sox want to find a place for Ryan Lavarnway. There's a good shot they don't invite Tek back and they go with these two. My ideal is that they teach Lavarnway to play third in addition to catcher and first, but that seems unlikely. They could also keep all three catchers and not Papi. They then rotate Lavarnway, Gonzo, Youk and others through the DH spot. That said, I expect Salty and Tek to start the season on the roster with Lavarnway forcing his way up early on due to an injury.
Short - The Sox will likely enter the season just as they did last year. They will resign Scutaro to a one or two year deal, hope that Lowrie forces his way onto the field, and that this year is the year that Jose Iglesias learns to hit. After this year, they will have to decide if Lowrie will every be healthy and if Iglesias will ever hit. Scutaro could be a solid sub for a few more years but they'll need more soon.
Third - Youk didn't look the same last year. He's 32 years old and hasn't played a full season either of the last two years. He doesn't strike anyone as the type of athlete who will play third into his late 30s. The Sox should try to get one more year out of Youk with Lowrie (or Mike Avilies) as a solid backup. They will hope that Will Middlebrook develops at Pawtucket and is ready to compete with Youk in 2013. By that point, Youk will either be struggling to keep a job or he'll be ready to move toward the comfy armchair of DH. I hope for the former but frankly expect the later. If Middlebrook looks years away, Lavarnway can't try 3B, and there's no good reason to expect Youk to improve, there's a decent chance that the Sox look to move on from Youk this off season.
Rightfield - JD Drew is likely to retire and, even if he doesn't, Cherington isn't going to take the heat that would come with bringing back "Nancy." So, that leaves us with Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick or J.C. Linares as the possibilities in right. The Sox will have to sign someone to compete with these guys. I'd love to see Kalish take it but it's unlikely - and a good problem to have. This is the position most likely to be taken by a new acquisition.
Starting Pitching - the Sox clearly need a 4 and 5 starter. There's an outside chance that a youngster will grab one of those spots, but Doubront, Tazawa, Alex Wilson, and Weiland don't look like quality major league starters at this point. The Sox will have to be busy in this market.
Relief Pitching - this is where I am most concerned because losing Pap means Bard will likely be the closer. We don't know how he'll do there. Assuming he does well, we have a massive hole in the set up role. I have a hunch that Michael Bowden might be a great reliever, but that's pretty much baseless. The Sox will have to get a few solid free agents here and give some shots to the aforementioned youngsters. It's not looking good.

The Lost Decade

2011-10-23T10:53:00.011-04:00

By nature I am an optomist. As the Sox season came careening to an end, I wasn't down on their prospects for next year. They had talent on the mound and all over the field. There was only one real threat to making a serious run in 2012: overreacting.

The Sox fell apart because they lost most of their starting pitching in early Sept. and then failed to stop that free fall in the last few weeks. From Aug. 31 to Sept. 16, Josh Beckett pitched 3.2 innings. When he came back, he struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts. That's normal and not alarming if it happens in June.

Jon Lester pitched during that time period but it was evident something wasn't right. He might have been in a slump or tired, but it didn't have to do with drinking with John Lackey. His four straight loses at the end of the season (against Tampa twice, the Yankees, and, of course, Baltimore (fie to thee Baltimore!)) were very disappointing but, again, would not have been alarming had it happened in May rather than at the same time as Beckett was struggling to return to effectiveness.

Prior to this period, Lester and Beckett were legitimate Cy Young candidates. Don't forget that as we pile on. Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz last pitched on June 16 and John Lackey last pitched in 2009 for the California Angels of Anaheim in California of America. Did anyone really expect Kyle Weiland or even Alfredo Aceves to fill that void? Aceves never was and never will be an answer as a starter but he's a revelation as a reliever.

The Sox fell apart and did not make the playoffs because they did not play well enough to make it. They did not play well enough because their starting pitching fell apart. Their starting pitching fell apart because... shit happens and pitching is a complex and unnatural motion done at 90+ miles an hour.

Terry Francona is the best manager in Red Sox history. His failing last year was that he did not turn his team around after it fell off a cliff in early Sept. He does deserve some blame for that. However, this is not football where a manager can game plan is way to a victory here and there. Baseball doesn't work that way.

I wish we as fans and especially the Boston media could accept failure in sports as simply a failure to play better than your opponent. Generally, it's not a moral failing; it's not a lack of leadership; and it's not a single player's fault. The baseball team lost because they did not play as well as the other baseball team on the field.

The Sox did lack a rightfielder and saw a disappointing lack of production from Carl Crawford. That said, Crawford had a bad year and still had the 6th best OPS of any starting leftfielder in the AL. In rightfield, JD Drew had a remarkably bad year (worst OPS of any rightfielder in baseball with at least 250 plate appearances) and Josh Reddick (18th on that list) couldn't adjust to pitchers' adjustment to him - he batted .208 in Aug. That said, with Drew's contract expiring and Reddick (24) and Ryan Kalish (23) both coming to a do or die crossroads in their respective careers, the franchise is at a point where it can bring in someone and open up a competition with the young guys. That's a good place to be.

The franchise's reaction to the collapse was to panic - a panic that reeks of micro-management from the ownership. They have let their manager walk away; they have made stupid comments insinuating they don't stand behind Crawford; allowed Theo Epstein to head to Wrigley; and allowed a whirlwind of rumors to overtake the baseball side of baseball to the point at which Globe reporters are asking Tampa's manager about drinking in the clubhouse and indirectly comparing Jon Lester's possible beer consumption with Oil Can Boyd's.

We have not appreciated enough the steady hand with which Tito guided the Sox. Perhaps more important than anything, his calm demeanor with the media and his steady hand on the lineup card weathered the numerous storms that characterizes baseball in New England. When calls came to bench that tiny rookie second baseman, give up on the skinny righty who flamed out after a no hitter, and to release the team's Dominican DH leader, Tito stuck to his guns and his long-range plan. Good luck finding someone else who can do that as effectively.

I am not a huge fan of Theo. He was a good general manager but he tends to get more credit then he deserves in part because he's young, local and his presence in the front office correlates with our franchise's revival, but he made a number of bad long-term decisions and wasn't part of the Beckett-Lowell trade that led us to World Series #2. That said, letting Theo walk (rather than giving him the club president's job which is what I'm guessing he was waiting for) and letting Tito go in the aftermath of the greatest collapse in baseball history indicates that the team is in fact in chaos and that the answer from on high is that Henry-Lucchino-Warner will grab the reigns tighter. When that happens, you sign Danny Tartabull and you convince yourself that Don Mattingly is a franchise player. Remember?

I hope I'm wrong but I think the Sox are entering a lost decade during which they will lead with their wallets and not a long-term plan. They will get a manager who's brilliant but can't deal with the media or the team personalities. They will drive Peddy to a point at which his head explodes with frustration and they'll sign 32-year old "sure things" to play outfield rather than letting someone like Ryan Kalish grow into the job. It's not looking good.

Trading Deadline

2011-07-31T22:02:00.002-04:00

The Sox come away from the trading deadline with a new utility infielder who has a solid record with the bat especially against lefties (Mike Aviles) and a lefty starter with arguably one of the most dynamic arms in the game and likely one of the least reliable medical charts - or most reliable if you are relying on him to not pitch (Erik Bedard).

What do we think?

The Sox are the best team in baseball right now with only the Phillies as a legitimate rival - I repeat "right now". One of the common misconceptions during the trade deadline is that you can fix your problems if you want to. This is especially misguided when it comes to pitching - which happens to be the biggest question for the Sox as long as Buchholz sits on the sidelines.

Aside from selling the farm for Ubaldo Jimenez - who's not having a great year but has serious talent - there are few pitcher's out there that are actually guaranteed to be an improvement on the back three of the Sox rotation: Lackey, Wakefield, and my mom. The grass is greener on the other mound.

The fact is that the Sox picked up a very talented pitcher for a moderate price (Fife will be a solid reliever in the majors and Federowicz will be, at worst, a solid backup catcher but that wasn't going to happen with the Sox with Lavarnway ready to join Salty next year). If the Sox have a chance of upgrading over Lackey and Wake, aside from Buch, the only chance of that happening is Bedard finding his grove again. This is a guy whose last year with the O's struck out 221 in 182 innings. He's not that guy anymore but he still has some stuff in the left arm.

Aviles is the insurance for Scut, Peddy and Youkilis that it seems Jed Lowries just won't be. If he can learn a bit of outfield, maybe he can even platoon with Reddick. Oh yeah, there's that.

The Sox did not get Beltran or Fukadome. That is likely in part due to the price, but it's also a vote of confidence that Reddick will grab this opportunity - or that the real JD Drew will step up.

So, the Sox likely improved themselves. But they also know that they are a great team right now and might improve further with Buchholz returning - and who knows, maybe JD Drew will remember how to hit.

'Overpaid'

2011-07-10T10:19:00.012-04:00

J.D Drew is making $14 million this year to hit .230 with 4 homeruns. All the while his stoicism makes him seem like he would rather be anywhere else but playing a boys game for millions of dollars every summer.

This year's minimum wage for a major leaguer is $414,o00. So, when infielder Angel Sanchez - this year's #2 hitter for the Astros (sorry Millsy) - played one game for the Sox last year he earned something like $2,500 for a day's work.

Are they worth it?

This is a question that comes up often - especially in the person on J.D. "Nancy" Drew. He's carried the team at times, usually had a very high on-base percentage, decent power numbers, wonderful defense, and played about 130-140 games in 3 of his first 4 years here. But he also gets paid a massive sum while playing a joyless - if solid - brand of baseball. He has a reputation as being soft and underachieving.

But my question has always been: why do we the fans care what the rightfielder is paid?

There's an interesting desire for a sense of fairness that raises its head in the context of "overpaid" major leaguers. We like to think a player can be worth what's he's paid. We base that analysis largely on how a player's salary compares to other players. Then we ask:

How did that player play compared to players in the same tax bracket?
Drew is the 11th highest paid outfielder in the majors. Only 3 of the players paid more than him would I actually take over him (Carl Crawford, Matt H0lliday, and Ichiro). In that context, he's no more overpaid than a number of other folks like Jason Bay and Vernon Wells.

How does he compare to his teammates?
Drew is the 4th highest paid player on the Sox (behind Beckett, Lackey and Crawford). So that means he's more valuable than Youk and Peddy!?!? For shame! However, that's a simplistic analysis. Youk and Peddy are shorter tenured and have not tested the free agent market. They - along with another of other prominent younger, homegrown Sox - decided to sign long-term deals before they hit the market. They chose security over maximum dollars. That's the anti-Drew approach. Drew is loathed in Philly for holding out for a whole year rather than sign a deal with them, then signing a big ground-breaking contract with St. Louis the next year. He's always gone for max dollars - adding to his bad reputation. Scott Boras probably has a bronzed statue of Drew in his lobby as the ideal client.

How did he live up to expectations?
Drew came to the Sox with oddly high expectations. His first 8 full season were pretty similar to his next 4 with the Sox. But he's always been a big name with a beautiful swing, tons of talent, and an aura of under-utilized talent.

So, that's part of the story of the lens through which fans see J.D. Drew's contract.

But why do we care?

J.D. Drew's contact really don't matter when it comes to whether or not the Sox win. At no point has Drew's contract really prevented the Sox' leadership from stepping up and paying for the talent they want. Just look at Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

Second, the money isn't really ours. Indirectly, we are the people that put in the money - in ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, etc. - that make these salaries possible. But I don't feel like I'm paying J.D. Drew.

It comes down to a sense of fairness. It's not fair that he gets paid that to be a decent player! He should at least play with the dirtdog approach of his predecessor Trot Nixon (left) or manic passion of Peddy.

The fact is the J.D. Drew was paid what the market wanted to pay him at the time. He has been a solid player until now. But he'll always be disliked in Boston - albeit slightly less than in Philly. I somehow don't expect to see Drew talking baseball in the NESN pre-game in the future. He'll fade into history unceremoniously - perhaps as soon as this winter - and Sox fan's will complain about him for years despite not really having a reason to hate him so much.

The Bullpen Through May

2011-05-29T18:53:00.002-04:00

The Sox are in good shape in the bullpen. Papelbon has been very solid - unspectacular perhaps but solid. He has a 2.91 ERA, 29 strikeouts in 21 innings with only 3 walks. Bard looks good as well. Similarly, he's not been untouchable but there's nothing there to be concerned about.

The next two in the bullpen pecking order - counting from closer to Dennis Lamp - were supposed to be Bobby Jenks and Hideki Okajima (arguably). Oki seems to be done. He'll make another appearance in Boston this year, but I think this is his last and it's very unlikely he'd be added to any postseason roster. He recently cleared waivers and returned to Pawtucket.

Jenks still has the power stuff but when he's been bad, he's been painfully bad. He's rehabbing in Pawtucket right now. He has a 9.35 ERA but he also only pitched 11 games including one where he gave up 4 runs in a third of an inning and the last three appearance before going onto the DL in which he gave up 5 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. He'll still be a major contributor this year and in all likelihood a key bridge between the starters and PapelBard.

Every good bullpen involves successful scrap. So it's a good sign that the Sox have so far found two unexpectedly good bullpen cogs. Righty Matt Albers had his bad moments lately. But he still looks like Bobby Jenks with more movement. I think Tito sees that Albers is on the cusp of a breakthrough and he's trying to feed that fire. It's looking good.

Meanwhile, lefty Rich Hill has looked rock solid so far. The big question, especially since he has a new sidearm motion and has mostly been a starter, is what will he do when - not if - he fails in the spotlight. How will he bounce back? I am hopeful but the Sox might still need a lefty out there.

The Sox just called up Michael Bowden from Pawtucket in exchange for recently acquired lefty Franklin Morales who went on the DL. I really think Bowden might be a special bullpen guy. Watching him start he always seemed to have that agressive approach of any good bullpen guy. One of these years he's going to stay. I think this might be that moment.

Dan Wheeler was supposed to be rock solid with his AL East background, his return home, and the fact that the solid middle-man is the same role he's succeeded at before. His stuff isn't very good but it never has been. I hope he shows us.

After that you have Alfredo Aceves who has been very solid as a started and for whom my only concern is that he will suffer a let down after pitching so well as a started and still being sent back to the pen when John Lackey returns.

Lastly, Tim Wakefield's time in the bullpen relies on the well-founded belief that you really need 6 starters. And Scott Atchison was solid last year and will be just as solid this year if he gets a chance. Given the players in front of him, I frankly hope he doesn't get that chance.

As we knew at the start of the year, the Sox have questions in finding a bullpen lefty and there's a bit of a problem with some folks changing roles or locations. That said, the Sox are in very good shape. The greatest concerns coming into the season really haven't panned out: is Papelbon on the down slope and was Bard a one-hit wonder.

The Sox have one of the best pens in the game. There's a little room for improvement and I'm not totally sold on Albers and Hill, but it's looking good.

The Hot Corner

2011-01-01T15:07:00.001-05:00

Last year, the Sox were in terrible organizational shape at 3B. Sure, at the top we had Adrian Beltre who turned out to be spectacular, having one of the better seasons for a Red Sox third baseman ever - good company with Boggs ('87, or almost any), Mike Lowell ('07, wow), Mueller ('03), Butch Hobson ('79), Carney Lansford ('81) - and Lowell was still on the roster. But below that we had Jorge Jimenez who might have some talent but the Sox didn't seem to broken up about his brief Rule V stay with the Marlins - and this year he might well lose even a starting spot in Pawtucket.

This year, the Sox are in a nearly ideal spot for the 2011 season and going forward. They got there through strong drafts and the AGon trade.

Kevin Youklis has, of course, moved across the diamond to third. I will say again that I have some doubts still that he'll excel there defensively, but I also think he won't be a liability. His range is fine, his arm is ok and he plays smart. Meanwhile, he'll hit a ton and get some MVP votes if he stays healthy.

Immediately behind Youklis is Jed Lowrie. While I expect Lowrie to win the shortstop position out of spring training, if Youklis were to get hurt and Lowrie were to say healthy, Jed would slide right into the hot corner and probably play outstanding defense while being a tough out with a some pop.

This means the Sox are set at third for probably the next two seasons. Youk is signed through 2012 with a team option for 2013. Lowrie could be a free agent in 2015 and arbitration eligible in 2012. That's plenty of major league insurance.

Youk will be 34 heading into that 2013 season and will in all likelihood - if he's still with the Sox - be looking at an at-least-part time roll as the DH - Papi will have retired by then and will be making millions as a spokesman for every brand in the region ("Bob's Discount Furniture. Da beds are strong enough for even the Big Papi. Come on dowwwwwn!"). By that point, the Sox might have some internal options to replace or supplement Youk at third.

Yamaico Navarro will probably have to have a breakout offensive year in 2011 to have a chance at starting someday at third, but I wouldn't rule that out. Tito said this about the kid who's known mostly for his flashy albeit inconsistent glove at short: "A little overanxious at the plate. ... You kind of see him not try to control his emotions but he can almost look, not laid back, but it doesn’t mean he doesn’t care. He’s trying to figure things out. He’s an interesting guy because his bat speed is just phenomenal.” Phenomenal bat speed to me means power potential. Mike Andrews of SoxProspects.com writes on ESPN.com that Navarro has the "strength and the bat speed required of a middle-of-the-order bat, but ... (hasn't) shown the ability to consistently hit major league breaking pitches." Navarro is only 23 so there's time to see if he might be a late blooming power threat for the hot corner, or if he's destined for utility infielder status.

The Sox have two other high ceiling but very young prospects in the lower minors. Will Middlebrook, 22, looks to play in Portland this year. He's a big kid - 6'4" 200lbs - with lots of power potential. Portland will test his maturity this year and we'll see if his power can really develop. SoxProspects.com says he's an excellent defensive thirdbaseman with high power potential. He's young enough also to take his time to improve as a hitter in Portland and Pawtucket and see if maybe in 2013 he can force his way into the Fens.

Then there's Garin Cecchini coming out of high school. He's only 19 and a long ways off, but the potential is definitely there to maybe even be a start in 3-4 years. This kid has enough talent to have outshined the all powerful Bryce Harper on Team USA 18 and under. He's a long way off but he's exactly the type of player the Sox have brought picked up due to the un-slotted draft system which has allowed them to make up for their lack of draft position by offering to spend big bucks of talented players like Cecchini who basically say pay me or I'll go to school. It's a messed up system that I've heard will be changed after this next draft - but I'm glad the Sox have taken advantage of it as long as they could.

Lastly, the Sox have Kolbrin Vitek, 21, who they picked in the first round last year and frankly looks on paper a lot like Lowrie and Pedroia did. They are polished hitters, infielders who might rise quickly through the ranks. Vitek could be a factor before the likes of Middlebrook and Cecchini.

And lastly lastly, I always wonder if offensively talented catchers who might be stumbling a bit defensively at a very difficult position might be moved to 3B. Could Luis Esposito or Ryan Lavarnway learn the hot corner? Just a thought.

The Sox have a likely All Star right now with Kevin Youklis - he'll have a better chance fighting it out there with Longoria and A-Rod than he did at first. They have totally capable backup at the major league level in Lowrie. And now they have amassed a large number of high-ceiling, young minor league thirdbasemen, at least one of whom should be ready when Youk is ready to start DHing some. This couldn't be much better.

The Roster

2010-12-21T11:18:00.004-05:00

The Sox management has clearly succeeded in filling out the team almost exactly as they planned. Sure, they'd love it if one of their starting outfielders batted righty, if they knew for sure Jed Lowrie wouldn't come down with Leprosy, if they knew what they were going to get from Beckett, Lackey and Dice-K, and (only maybe) an established lefty reliever.

I thought it was time to take a look at the projected roster with some commentary (italics are the at-risk spots and I indicated lefty/switch in parentheses).

Starting Nine
CF Ellsbury (l)
2B Pedroia
LF Crawford (l)
1B AGon (l)
3B Youk
DH Papi (l)
C Salty (s)
RF Drew (l)
SS Scutaro

The biggest question here is the order. To what extend will Francona try to break up the 5 lefties? Where will Crawford bat? I feel his speed will help the top of the order and I'm not worried about a Tony Fossas-type against Carl and AGon. The other questions would be Scutaro or Lowrie (probably Jed if they are both healthy) and where do you put Drew.

Bench
Inf. Lowrie (s)
OF Cameron
C Varitek (s)
OF McDonald

I can't seem to figure out what the contract status of McDonald is. I think he's a free agent but people assume he's coming back. I love the guy but it might be better to look for a guy who could also play some infield. Their talent on the bench is great but it's rather shallow and has some health, age questions.

Starters
Lester (l)
Beckett
Buchholz
Lackey
Matsuzaka
The others: Wake, Doubront, and, later in the season, maybe Junichi Tazawa (coming off Tommy John), Kyle Weiland or Alex Wilson(in Portland last year).

Despite the acquisitions this offseason, this is still the difference maker for this team. Two young stars, two former star horses, and a wildcard as #5. That's fantastic.

Relievers
Papelbon
Bard
Jenks
Wheeler
Albers
Atchison
Wakefield
The others: Prospects Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront (l), and vets Andrew Miller (l), Rich Hill (l), Lenny DiNardo (l), Randy Williams (l), Robert Coello, and Matt Fox all have some major league experience. In the minors there are righties Jason Rice (in Portland last year), bonus baby Anthony Ranaudo (hasn't pitched in the pros yet), and Bryce Cox.

This bullpen would be all righties but who do you drop? This is a big bullpen already (7 members) so you can't add someone. I think this could force Wake to retire after spring training baring any injury to a starter or could force a surprise cut or trade. That said, the lefties, Miller DiNardo and Hill, will need to make the Sox to drop someone. This management has never bought into the need for a lefty in the bullpen - but then they give in at some point. I think the Sox would like to let Doubront begin the season starting in Pawtucket then come up mid-season as a reliever if needed. Bowden will have to make a case that he's 100% ready and reliable. I bet he goes to Pawtucket to perfect the art of relieving.

The Bench:
Outfielders Ryan Kalish (l), Daniel Nava (s) and Josh Reddick (l) could all play in the majors now but all three are basically lefties (Nava stinks batting righty). Portland's defensive wiz Che-Hsuan Lin might be a dark horse to appear in Boston this year since he's their top righthanded hitting outfield in the minors.

Infielders... not much there. 1B Lars Anderson and IF Yamaico Navarro tasted the majors last year but neither is really ready to play consistently (btw, watch out for Yamaico if he learns to drive the ball. He showed some power in the fall league and Francona already marveled at his bat speed). This looks like a spot for some minor league free agents (e.g. Darnell McDonald or Nick Green) or dark horse (like Nate Spear or Brent Dlugach) to impress in spring training and something might work out for them - especially with Scutaro aging, Peddy coming off a bad injury and Lowrie injury/sickness-prone until he proves otherwise. SS phenom Jose Iglesias might get a taste this year as well which would set up a battle with Lowrie for 2012 - this is Lowrie's year to become a star or a career super sub (if he's healthy I think he's a star).

At catcher, Mark Wagner in Pawtucket would be the first call up if needed but he can't hit. After that they hope that Ryan Lavarnway can continue his now-rapid accent. He looks like a perfect backup to Salty if Salty finally lives up to expectations. Lavarnway is a powerful righty who could probably learn to play a little first and DH to get some extra at bats. Luis Espisito is also on the radar and has a high ceiling.

Every year there's a player who comes out of no where to make the team or at least play a very significant roll. My picks for the Nick Green award would be Nate Spear finding playing time in the infield due to some injury and Robert Coello carving out a roll for himself in the pen.

Side note: Some writers have said that Lars Anderson (23 yrs old) and 3B Will Middlebrooks (in single-A) are now expendable since the AGon acquisition. That's absurd. Those are exactly the kinds of kids you let play and grow in the minors while you don't need them in the majors. Make Lars and Middlebrooks improve to the point where they are forcing you to let them play in the majors, at which point you move someone (like Youk to DH post-Papi) or trade someone when they are valuable. Don't trade mid-level prospects with high ceilings just because you have major league talent at their respective positions. We traded Jeff Bagwell because the team already had thirdbasemen Wade Boggs and (2-time All Star?) Scott Cooper in Boston and Pawtucket respectively. That worked out well.

Bonus: if you've read this long the you deserve a good laugh. Check out this picture of minor league reliever Blake Maxwell or, as I've dubbed him, "clown college" here.

Quietly Doing Business

2010-12-15T21:46:00.005-05:00

In September, players and management vowed to stop using the media to artificially alter the market. Management had often said publicly if they were interested in a player and/or leaked how much they were offering which had the effect of driving off competition from other teams - even if they were lying - or exposing a limited market for a player thus giving undue leverage to a team. Likewise, Scott Boras et al unquestionably lies about markets for his clients. Every player Boras represents floats like a butterfly and has most of the league offering double his true market value if you were to believe the agent. So, the parties agreed to negotiate with each other rather than through rapacious bloggers. Fucking bloggers.

So according to Business Insider, it didn't work. Boras's mouth couldn't be closed with vice grips and the Steinbrenner Family leaves a slime of leaks behind them as they walk New York.

I'm not sure if that's conventional wisdom, but regardless, I'm pretty sure it's false. Boras lucked out with the Nats signing Jayson Werth for a ton of money in large part because they want to tell the world that they have money and they are ready to contend in the next 3 years (one of my next posts) but he's still waiting on someone to sign Adrian Beltre despite a fantastic year. He didn't jump on Boston or Oakland while he claimed to have offers all over the place. Beltre will find a home, but it's looking unlikely that it'll be for the money and length he might have gotten earlier on - Boras once again putting his potential payout ahead of his client's well being. Meanwhile, the Yankees may not abide by the silent treatment edict, but they have also lost out on everything they wanted this off season.

That brings me to how this new M.O. is working out to some extent for baseball: Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. When was the last time that you remember the 2 best players on the market being scooped up by 2 of the biggest market clubs, and it actually surprising people? Never. The Phillies didn't need to talk up their interest in Lee. They just made a good offer, reminded him of how much he loved the organization, and then planned a press conference.

With Crawford, it was known that the Sox liked him and were doing due diligence, but the signing was a shock. Sox fandom and talking heads were still trying to digest Adrian Gonzalez and figure out what's next when CC was signed. But wait, the Sox signed a second speedster, a third lefty outfielder, an African American superstar (finally!), the best player on the market... and we didn't get to really worry about it for days on end as the details are negotiated? That's unBostonian!

The fact is that the silence pact or whatever it is has worked to allow some clubs that are less interested in the back page of the Daily News and some agents that care about baseball and players, to negotiate and get some things done without the prying eyes and ears of the media.

It's interested to note how little coverage this lack of coverage has gotten. Maybe it shouldn't be surprising to think that the baseball writers aren't too excited to write about how little they actually know about the "hot stove."

A-Gone Is A-Coming?

2010-12-04T11:00:00.004-05:00

According to just about everyone, Adrian Gonzalez is headed to the Sox after a physical and a contract extension. The Sox have lacked a true star slugger since Manny left and Gonzalez is as much a sure thing in that category as there is in the game.

While I am 100% behind this trade, it does raise a few new questions. I'll chat about those now not to throw cold water on this game-changing trade, but because I can't think of anything more to say about the trade itself than: yes, yes, yes or maybe yes.

Presumably Gonzalez will now man 1B and Youk will move to 3B. I have always been skeptical of Youkilis as an everyday 3B. He has an average arm and his mobility is only going to decline. He has started 180 games at 3B compared to 529 at 1B. That said, the idea of Youk playing left field consistently is not an option. He's started 19 games there in his career and as we discussed ad nauseum last year when Ellsbury moved over to left, we should not underestimate the need for speed in left, even in front of the Monster. Youk would be a liability out there and will only play significant time there if the Sox get an alarming discount with Adrian Beltre. Youk will man third in a consistent albeit unspectacular fashion in 2011. In 2012, when Youk will be 33 and in the last year of his contract, he will likely take over DH from Papi whose contract ends after next year.

The other major issue raised by this trade is the lefty factor. The Sox will now likely have a leadoff man (Ellsbury), 3rd (AGon), 5th (Papi) and 7th (Drew) hitting left and a new starting catcher (Saltalammacciacalatamacciaca) who switch hits but is much better from the right side. And Peddy has a 50 point better OPS over the last 3 years against righties than lefties; Lowrie, a switchhitter who might see a lot of time at short or even 3B, is massively better against righties. Scutaro is pretty much neutral. So, that means against lefties at this point we're relying on Youkilis and then... Mike Cameron and Tek? ...to take on lefties. Meanwhile, the Yankees might end up with the two best lefty starters in the game. The good news is that AGon was fantastic against lefties last year; the bad news is over the last 3 season his OPS is 200 points worse against lefties. Ideally, he'll be the very rare lefty who can take advantage of the short rightfield porch in the Bronx against Sabathia (and maybe Cliff Lee), but that's so rare I'm not totally counting on it.

The Sox will need to invest in some anti-lefty options in order to truly succeed. You can see a list here of the best in the league against lefties with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. As I tweeted this week, the recently-released former-Brave LFer Matt Diaz would be a great mid-level addition. The Sox need help against lefties and I'm starting to see the value of Jayson Werth in that regard.

As for what we are expected to give up for Gonzalez - pitching prospect Casey Kelley, 1B youngster Anthony Rizzo and maybe OF Ray Fuentes (left) or Ryan Kalish - this is a fair trade - in fact it's exactly the troika I guessed would make this work. Kelley and Rizzo are very young and talented and perfect for the Padres. If included in the trade, Kalish will be missed but this is also a case of selling high. Kalish is a fan and management favorite and he will probably be a good major league player, but he is not quite as good as we think and is very unlikely to put up mid-lineup numbers or top-lineup speed. Fuentes is a major speed talent but he's a ways away.

This trade just made my off-season.

&*^($@ The Fans Say

2010-10-04T21:52:00.002-04:00

You are wrong if you think...

...this season was a "bridge year". The Sox lost because they were without the possible top three hitters in the lineup - Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youk' - and had career bad years from their ace (Beckett) and their closer. They also lost their starting center fielder for most of the season and their star catcher for almost a month. This was a good team which would have made the playoffs if they had been remotely healthy.
...the bums need to trade Pabst so Daniel Bard can close. This is both not going to happen and should not happen. Moving Bard to closer right now means that the Sox are lost in the eighth. Are you ready for Michael Bowden or Scott Atchison to take over that duty? If not, then you keep the current set up. The other option is you trade for or sign someone but anyone out there would not have Papelbon's pedigree and the fact is that Paps had seriously nasty stuff at the end and he "just" needs to locate better and find a better and more consistent mix of pitches. Every game he seemed to be inventing it anew - all fastballs, then fastballs and splitters, then the whole former-starting 4-pitcher arsenal.
...Scutaro was a bum. He had a good year bringing consistency to short and leadoff when we would otherwise have been either playing the likes of Nick Green or complaining about someone along the Renteria lines. Ideally, Lowrie then Iglasias beat out Scutaro next year and he ends up as a 12o game utility guy, but he deserves a lot of credit for this year. Oh, and he kept playing shortstop while his arm was held together with Tim Wakefield's shoelaces and the welding work of Doug Miribelli.
...Ryan Kalish should come into spring training as the starting center or left fielder. I really like this kid but his numbers and experience are so vastly below those of Ellsbury it's not even funny. He needs to win a job sometime next year and/or hope to position himself as Drew's replacement after next year.
...no really it was a bridge year - Theo planned to fail this year. Where was the position at which they put a sub-par player? Scutaro and Cameron came in as consistent, albeit unspectacular, vets. Beltre was a one year, super talented investment at a position where they have almost no depth. They had 6 major league starters not including Doubront and Casey Kelly in the minors. The brought in Billy Hall as the utility guy. They came into the season to win and were in it until the last few weeks.
...the Sox should trade Ellsbury to get a) serious bullpen help b) a powerful outfielder, or c) another starter. Ellsbury is one of the best leadoff guys in the league and had an injury that should not cause any depletion of his skills. You keep that guy. And if the Sox could trade him, they would not get much. While it might seem I'm contradicting myself, other teams would want to see him play before trading high-level talent. The Sox need to go into the season with Ellsbury as their leadoff guy and if he struggles then maybe Kalish beats him out and so be it. Competition for major league spots is the hallmark of great teams - right Mr. Belichick?
...Beltre will take a home team discount to stay in Boston in 2011. This is a Scott Boras guy who cashed in big time off his first big season getting a massive contract from Seattle after leaving the Dodgers, then he takes a calculated risk in accepting a one year deal with the Sox to show the world he's a star. It worked. This guy is making bank this off season. And don't think that the fact that he kept his family - including his pregnant wife - out west all season doesn't indicate a deep hope that he'll move back out west. I want him to stay, but I see him in Anaheim next year.

The Bright Side

2010-09-08T09:25:00.005-04:00

The Sox are almost assuredly out of the running for the playoffs. This season is the definition of a valiant effort by the club and by a manager who deserves manager of the year and our unwavering support.

With that, the rest of the Sox season - while still about winning because it's always just a game - needs to be about next year. That means letting some young guys play when the old guys have no future value (Lowell) or are playing very hurt (Scutaro), letting some potential 2011 key players get some extra at bats (Salty) and innings (Bowden and Richardson), and not overworking your elite players (Buchholz on short rest? Good call to call that one off.).

Most importantly, the Sox' major league staff can get a nice long look at Yamaico Navarro, Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish and Lars Anderson.

The Sox wisely decided not to completely destroy Marco Scutaro by playing him too much. His arm is falling off and he'll be needed next year probably as the starting shortstop or at least as a stud utility guy. Scutaro's injury means they can let him play some at second for the next week or so then sit him for the year. In the meantime, they can see if Lowrie and Navarro look like major league starters for next year. Those two - if Lowrie can finally stay healthy - would presumably be in a competition along with Cuban ex-pat Jose Iglesias, whose currently in AA, for the starting job sometime next year or in 2012. I think the Sox would love to have someone step up and beat out Scutaro in spring training, but someone will really have to step it up a notch. Scutaro has been a very solid player all year for the Sox and Francona will stick with him unless one of the young guys forces his hand next year.

At first, while I do love Mike Lowell, he's really of very little value right now on the field. He's not hitting very much, his fielding has been fine, but neither has been remarkable. The fact is that Lowell will not be with the Sox next year and thus the Sox should take this rare chance - a truly open firstbase with quite a few games to play and out of the race - to let Lars Anderson play almost every day. I was honestly thinking this last week before they called up Anderson, but I was unsure how he'd been playing the last few months in Pawtucket. Apparently he was tearing it up and he still has a ton of potential and is very young - and I already find his quotes entertaining which is inline with his reputation and being an unusual athlete. He may not be the firstbasemen of the future, esp. with Rizzo hot on his tail in AA, but this is a chance to see a bit of what he has.

I actually enjoy this time of year. Clearly. And I feel that the Sox got the most out of their banged up team. I don't feel at all like they let me down. Go Lars!

Playing Pepper

2010-08-30T18:00:00.000-04:00

Ok, it's been a month. I'm sorry. I thought I'd try to come back with a little pepper:

The idea of trading Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason is remarkably stupid. He's injured so his value has gone down. If you were to want to trade him - a bad idea to begin with - you should trade him when he's more valuable then now. Also, broken bones heal and don't tend to be nagging injuries. Next year, he should be fully healed and tearing it up on the base paths again. There is something messed up about the "he's soft" idea. Pedroia came back and played only two games before calling it quits. Why isn't he "soft"? Ellsbury is clearly injured according to these mysterious things called x-rays and, on top of that, his game is one built largely on diving. The only legitimate complaint might be that he hasn't spent much time with the team since he went down the second time. But that is completely unrelated to the "soft" argument. The simple stupidity of the idea that he should come back because Wes Welker has makes my brain hurt. I find it so ignorant it borders on hateful. Shut up.
Ryan Kalish has been extremely exciting to watch and he has a ton of talent, but in a pennant race it appears that teams have figured something out with him. It might be time to go with his competition in the organization whose tearing it up in Pawtucket: Josh Reddick. It's time to ride the hot hand in center and that man would seem to be Reddick.
Speaking of center, Darnell McDonald has been the unsung hero of this team. While Nava has a better story, Beltre has been the best hitter, Scutaro has been more prominent in his solid play, it's McDonald from who we expected nothing and got a solid everyday major league player who can do just enough of everything to be valuable every day. I truly hope he returns next year even if he sits on the end of the bench - hopefully for the Sox sake he spends a lot of time on the bench and pinch running.
Speaking of surprise heroes, thought I'd let you know that last year's star stopgap, utility infielder Nick Green, has fallen back to earth this year. After playing 104 games last year and coming up with just enough hitting and athletic (albeit erratic) defense to keep us afloat in 2009, he's played 14 games for the Dodgers and Jays and has 3 hits. He's now playing for the Padres AAA team in Portland, Ore. There, he's in the same lineup as former Sox out"fielder" Wily Mo Pena, whose been in the independent league this year. That guy's still only 28 years old and built like a petite grizzly bear. I think he may have eaten Devern Hansack.
How do you segway off of a Wily Mo Pena bear joke?
I wonder if the Sox will try to resign V-Mart. He's a really good hitter but probably not good enough to be a full time DH/1B down the road if he's looking for a long-term deal. I'd be fine if they brought him back but it might be time to take a leap of faith with Salty. He's only 25 and has the talent to be V-Mart. Tek is a free agent after this year and maybe he'd come back for another year as a backup for much cheaper. He'd really get a chance to tutor with Salty. Meanwhile, Sox have a glut of good - not great - catching prospects at every level of the system.
Speaking of minor league catchers - oh yeah, now you're excited! - the Sox have a kid in Portland named Ryan Lavarnway. He tore up single A Salem before being called up and continues to show very good power. He's 23 years old out of Yale where he led the country in hitting. He led the Sox minors in homers last year and will probably do that again this year. He's 6'4" 225. My point? Why are they trying to teach this guy to catch when he didn't catch much until 2007? Seems like he should learn to play first and work on hitting the ball a mile. Just a thought.
For the record, I love Mike Lowell. I've been accused of being a Lowell basher.
Rosters expand on Wednesday. Looks to me like they'll call up Salty, lefty Dustin Richardson, righty Michael Bowden, Reddick, maybe righty Robert Manuel (what a great year he's had in Pawtucket) and utility speedster Eric Patterson. They might consider firstbaseman Lars Anderson or infielder Gil Valazquez, but that's getting pretty crowded and neither is on the 40 man which means I think someone else would have to be designated to make room. Not worth it. Also, Tek should be back soon. That would give us 4 catchers so it's possible they could release Kevin Cash, but probably not.
I was wrong about: Jeremy Hermida being worth of starting (by the way he's still in Pawtucket), Lowell being done with the Sox, and that the Sox were going to use Bowden in a significant way this year.

That's all I can think of. I hope to give you a more focused article again soon. -Wally

Trade Deadline

2010-08-01T14:54:00.004-04:00

Seems like the consensus on yesterday's trade deadline for the Sox among the fans is that it was tantamount to giving up on the season. The problem was that there were few real upgrades out there. A couple relievers were available but not Billy Wagner-esque difference makers.

The Sox (in)actions yesterday show two things: they feel that most of their holes are going to be filled by returning players (Ellsbury, Tek, and Peddy); and that the remaining issues are best solved with young guns.

The Sox decided that they are best off with a bullpen of Paps, Bard, Bowden, Doubront, Richardson and two guys from the group of Wake, Atchison, Delcarman, and Oki. I agree. I'd rather bring in Bowden and see what happens then trade a top prospect for someone like Octavio Dotel and roll the dice there. The Yankees used the same strategy last year on their way to the series by relying on David Robertson, Phil Hughes, Phil Coke, and Alfredo Aceves - all 26 years old or younger - to bridge the gap to Mariano.

This not a sure thing, but those don't exist in the bullpen short of the best closers which we don't need since we have two. The old adage still rings true: if they were that good they would be starting.

The fact is, as our bats return to the lineup and full health, and our starters all healthy, we should expect our starters to get into the 7th inning which then leaves just an inning or less needed to bridge the gap the Bard and Paps. I could see Richardson and Bowden sharing that roll depending on matchups; and Doubront taking on more clean inning situations (starting an inning, rather than coming in with people on).

I love the Saltalamaccia trade. They bought really low on a player with a ton of talent who's still very young and by all accounts a great kid. This is a switch hitter with power who can play some first. He'll be a valuable bench player in Sept. - third catcher and pinch hitter - and next year might get his shot. The Sox have always loved him so it make sense to get him when the cost is low.

In left, Ryan Kalish was the right call. He's getting a taste and he's a much better fielder than Hermida and a bigger threat with the bat than McDonald or Patterson - or Cameron right now. Kalish will get sent back down next week when Ellsbury comes up, but for now this is the right move.

Sometimes inaction is the best decision for this year and the future. That's the case in 2010.

Game Time

2010-07-31T16:38:00.005-04:00

So I'm going to call of the much-anticipated live blog today. That's because major league baseball sucks. They put the Sox on national TV and blackout mlb.com video streaming. The problem is that since I'm in DC they are playing the Reds v. Braves on Fox, not the Sox game (why they chose that game for DC eludes me). Then, rather than do something fans might like like lifting the blackout for a game I can't watch on TV, they keep the blackout and make sure no one can watch it. Assholes.

As for the trading deadline, here's a rundown of what I'm hearing and reading:

Ramon Ramirez traded to the Giants but not sure for what
Sox are going young with Kalish in left, Hermida sent packing, Dustin Richardson in the bullpen and presumably Bowden and now Felix Doubront set to join him. That is exactly the right move.
Jarrod "Yips" Saltalamaccia was picked up from the Rangers for some minor leaguers. He's a big talent. Switch hitting 25 year old catcher the Rangers got when they traded Texeira to the Braves. The problem is he's not been hitting well lately and he has the Mackey Sasser yips.

Update 5pm - Ramirez was traded for minor league reliever Daniel Turpen. He's a Double A guy with so so numbers this year. On the surface it seems like they were just trying to get rid of Ramirez to clear space for a youth movement in the pen.

2 hours to go

2010-07-31T13:54:00.002-04:00

Sox have been quiet thus far on the trade front and I'm ok with that. It'd be great to get a really good reliever but relief pitchers aren't worth the price unless you get a great one. Most available relievers aren't much better than the ones we're tiring of: mini Manny, Oki and Ramon Ramirez.

As for other trades, the Sox could bring in a starter-quality corner outfielder to spell JD Drew while his hammy is acting up and fill in until Jacoby comes back. The likelihood of making such a move depends on how confident the Sox are that Hermida can start hitting again - and that Jacoby will come back and play well. I think they stand pat here too. They could also try to give a shot to someone like Ryan Kalish to bring some youth and athleticism to the outfield.

Lastly, I don't think a backup catcher is worth a trade at this point. Tek will presumably be back and we want V-Mart playing most of the time anyway. You only make that trade if you get someone you expect to play a significant role next year.

See y'all at 4pm when I'll live blog the Tigers game, chat about the deadline, and yell at the Fox announcers. Help me out with some comments and I'll reply. -Walter

Low Lowell

2010-06-22T18:10:00.000-04:00

Like every other Sox fan, I love Mike Lowell.

With that nicety out of the way I must say: get rid of Mike Lowell. The Sox need the room on the roster. When (if?) Jacoby comes back, the Sox have two options: ship Lowell out or release Darnell McDonald. McDonald is out of options and cannot be sent to the minors unless no other team wants him. There must be other teams that want him. A few weeks back he came within hours of leaving Boston for good for just this reason until he received a stay of execution. He's a very valuable player and should just stay, no execution.

Lowell's value is nil as long as Youk, Beltre and Papi are healthy and productive. We're deep enough into the season that it's time to bet on their health and productivity. And even if one of them slumped terribly, none of these players will be benched in favor of Lowell given their track records and defensive importance.

The Sox must give up on the idea of getting any value back from Lowell. The value they will get is 1) space on the roster and a chance of keeping McDonald and 2) the opportunity to send him out of the division. My proposed trade: send him Seattle for a bag of potato chips and a guarantee (if this is within the rules) that he will not end up in the Bronx (sorry Mikey, but you're just too good a fit there).

I believe that Mike Lowell can still play. He can still hit and he could play a solid first and decent third. I don't think his days are numbered in the league but they should be over in Boston. Sorry.

Playing Pepper

2010-06-12T10:37:00.008-04:00

Here's a little run down of somethings I've been thinkin' bout:

Anyone else notice that the Sox are leading the league in runs scored, OPS, total bases, and second in homers. Not too shabby.
Mike Lowell should play third so Beltre stops hurting our left fielders. He's broken Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida this year - and Hermida's not too small himself.
I'm wondering if we'll hear from Globe blogger Chad Finn about how sorry he is that he has repeatedly called Jacoby Ellsbury soft because of his injuries this year. It was revealed today that Ellsbury hurt himself anew when he briefly returned to the Fens recently. He now has a "non-displaced rib fracture and edema in the left posterior-axillary line". Finn also pouted a bit for taking heat from Ellsbury fans for his attacks, but he seems to have missed the point: that he insinuated a player was soft, and insinuated that there was an undercurrent in agreement with that sentiment, without really showing any basis for it. Did he interview fans at Fenway who thought Ellsbury was dogging it? Did he break 4 ribs then dive on them? Ellsbury might not be Willis Reed, but we seem to conveniently forget that Willis Reed wasn't Willis Reed again after the 1970 finals performance. Likewise, Kirk Gibson only played one full season after his 1988 World Series walk off. I understand that these guys need to play hurt sometimes, but Jacoby is a huge part of our present and future, and we need him to be healthy before we let him on the field. Playing hurt against the Indians a third of the way into the season is not as important as leading off in a Wild Card playoff game in October.
I'm really going back and forth about V-Mart's worth after this year. If we resigned him, he'd likely be a 32 year old DH and backup 1B and C. Then he'd be a 36 year old DH by the end of his contract probably. He is not a real power hitter, but his ability to make hard contact is remarkable. He's on a pace this year to strike out 50 times while hitting 23 homers and a .297 average. And that's not too far off his norm. He's very good from both sides.
The Sox have a bullpen problem. Paps is still good and Bard has been solid, but after that it's not too pretty. Mini Manny has great stats but he's not too trustworthy. Boof Bonser might be a nice find. Oki has been bad. Ramirez and Atchison are ok but neither of them should be under pressure. Dustin Richardson should help from Pawtucket at some point. But while he's talented, he's very wild. Outside of that, the Sox might need to look for a trade if anyone is available - and if we're in the race.
This year's draft seemed solid for the Sox. The biggest hole in the Sox farm system is power. They picked up a few super high ceiling power guys. At least one will completely flop, but one might be that big power guy the Sox need in their future. They picked up infielder Kolbrin Vitek from Ball State who fits into the Pedroia/Lowrie mold - highly productive college infielder with advanced approach at the plate but little power. But they also picked up an 18 year old phenom with massive promise but some injury issues. They picked up 6'7" righty Anthony Ranaudo from LSU who has major league stuff now, but also has injury issues. And "light tower power" college outfielder Bryce Brentz who doesn't make much contact but wows when he does (even though he's not that big). I like it.
The Sox just sent down Josh Reddick and called up Daniel Nava. Having a switch-hitting corner outfielder who can really hit will be nice. He's also a hell of a story. From soxprospects.com: "Initially cut as a walk on at Santa Clara, Nava went to JuCo and excelled, ultimately returning to Santa Clara for his senior season. He went undrafted and again proved the doubters wrong by doing extremely well in independent baseball in 2007, earning the spot as Baseball America's #1 independent prospect. He then proceeded to win the California League batting crown in 2008, albeit at the age of 25. Following an early-season injury in 2009, he went on to dominate the Carolina League and the Eastern League in limited at bats. Nava is a well-rounded player - has a great bat with a little bit of pop, excellent plate discipline, average speed, and a strong arm in right. He still hasn't played against age-appropriate competition, but if he can show some success at Triple-A, he has the makings of a unique success story. " Even if the Sox don't go anywhere this year, it's a team stacked with great stories from Nava to Darnell to Atchison.

Beckett in Baltimore

2010-05-24T20:24:00.001-04:00

Thought I'd share this pic I took in Baltimore recently when Beckett was bringing it. Remember that guy? The ace.

Hermida's Chance

2010-05-24T18:30:00.002-04:00

Before Mike Cameron returns to the Sox tomorrow, let me just say for the record that Jeremy Hermida should continue to start in left over Cameron.

Cameron has the skills and experience to fill in adequately for Hermida and JD Drew against lefties. That would also allow Ellsbury to lock in in center rather than moving him over everytime Cameron replaces Hermida.

Hermida is a big strong guy and he's only 26 years old. He hasn't hit a homer in a little while but he has a ton of 2-out RBIs and has loads of potential to really break out. As is he's on a pace for 17 homers and 100 RBIs (and a .220 average with 117 strikeouts). My guess is that if he played almost every day in Fenway, he would hit more homers than that and fewer RBIs. I'd like to see if I'm right.

Update 5/25/10 -- Looks like I might have been on to something. Cameron is coming back but Francona plans to play him more in left for now and wants to give Hermida ample at bats. Tito totally reads my blog. (Anyone else already miss Darnell McDonald?)

The Transition

2010-05-14T17:21:00.001-04:00

Last winter, Dan Shaughnessy was in another of his self-righteous, indignant huffs. This time, he was mad Sox owner John Henry, in relation to whether or not the Sox would sign Jason Bay (he of 1 homer this year) or some other big hitter, had said, “Those realities are a function of available talent and age-related transitioning once again as we did prior to 2007." As real reporter Amalie Benjamin points out: "With much of the talent aging and in the final year of contracts, plus a fairly weak free agent class, there is a distinct possibility that the Sox might not be quite so close to the top of the American League next season." Shaughnuessy just complained about ticket prices he probably hasn't paid for in decades and his perception that this means the Sox are throwing in the towel for 2010 and maybe 2009.

The fact is that Henry is right. This is a transition year. This is a "bridge" year. That said, the Sox are trying to put a good team on the field in the interim. They signed solid veterans for short term deals this off season: Cameron and Scutaro for 2 years and Beltre for one.

With their great depth of pitching and what should be solid offense and defense, I still believe this team can be very good. But, it might just not happen this year.

The Sox are well positioned to dramatically upgrade in 2011 and 2012. I know Shaughnuessy hates that the team might have a budget, but they do. Shilling out large long term deals last offseason would have been a terrible move. It would have only maybe made the Sox slightly better this year but would have killed us down the road.

Going into next season, the Sox rid themselves of the contracts of Papi, Mike Lowell, Beltre (though he has a $5 mill. player option), Tek, Hermida, V-Mart and Julio Lugo's contract. Then in 2011, the Sox walk away from Drew, Cameron and Wake.

This allows the Sox next year to at least give some playing time to a young catcher, clears the table at DH and one of the corner infield positions and opens up a ton of cash. This will let the Sox go hard after a truly big bat in a trade or free agency. They can start giving serious playing time to Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish as they look to secure spots in the post-Drew and Cameron outfield. Jose Iglesias start playing some short in Boston next year - Scutaro is ideal for moving back into a utility role if Iglesias can win a job or if Marco loses a step. Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo will have their chance to make the Sox clear room for one of them at first - and with Youk's age - 33 in 2012 - he might be part-time DH at that point.

The Sox have a mass of young guys almost ready and clearing all the money from the payroll will allow the team to fill in where their young guys fall short - probably in big time power and at 3rd base (I'm not convinced Youk can or will ever play 3rd regularly in the bigs).

Now jogging in from the bullpen... the starter?

2010-04-26T18:11:00.007-04:00

My friend challenged me to refute this blog post by The New York Times’ Freakonomics folks (read it here). I strongly advise looking over the post before you read my response.

This guy has a very interesting argument. In case you are dying to read my knowledge-drop but don’t want to wade through the plebeian blather of "The New York Times,” basically the argument this reader of Freakonomic posits is that closers should start games and hand off to a starter who would finish up the game, thus letting the starter focus on 6-7 innings and not pace himself as much while getting consistent outings from their best short reliever, the “opener”. Where he misfires:

Using relief pitchers after the starter allows the manager to manage a scarce resource (relief pitchers) within a (generally) known number of innings (i.e. from when the starter depart through the 9th inning with something to spare in case of extras). What if your closer falters? Bring in your starter early? Or you could use a few relievers, then you starter, running the risk of your starter also having a bad day and being short-handed at the end of the game. Let's imagine the Nationals adopt this approach and “opener” Matt Capps gives up 3 runs in 2/3 of an inning, he’s replace by a lefty who closes out the inning, then the next guy struggles to get through the second and you’re down 6-0 starting the third and handing the ball off to your best starter. That’s a waste. Or you hand it off to your 5th starter; he gets shelled but in the 6th inning you’re still in a 9-9 game without your “opener” and lefty specialist available. The conventional approach allows the manager to better manage his pitchers.
His change of pace argument actually is a better argument for the current pitching structure. As the starter tires and batters have seen the same pitcher 2, 3, or 4 times, that’s when you are most in need of bringing in Daniel Bard to relieve Wake, rather than letting someone in the 9th inning face Wake for the third time when he's getting tired.
In this case, you’d still need a closer of sorts. When a starter falters but the game is still close, it leaves you with a lack of a good option for the 9th since you’ve already pitched your best non-starter early in the game, or you’re saving him as the next game opener.
I agree with the writer’s fascination with knuckleballs and the idea that they are underused. If a pitch is so tough to hit – and catch – that major leaguers can know it’s coming and still not hit it, then people should toss it in every now and then if they can pull it off. That said, the talent and effort it takes to throw a knuckleball is also under-appreciated. You couldn’t rely on one to throw two innings every other day all season. Their arm would fall off. Secondly, it’s too difficult to throw a knuckleball for us to think we’ll ever (again?) see every team have one.
I feel that this is a case of trying to fix something that is not really broken. If a manager doesn’t want his pitchers to aim for complete games, tell them that. Tell them you need six good ones. This is a massive risk as a way to solve a non-problem.

Ok, now that I've tried to address this very serious - very serious! - hypothetical question, I thought I'd pass it back to my friend who dropped the gloves on this, inviting me to take on this idea. Here is a large portion of the analysis of by boy mgdistrict:

When I try to think about how this might look, I can’t help thinking that a manager wouldn’t be willing to remove an opening pitcher after just two innings if he was pitching particularly well. As any Red Sox fan can attest, there are games– and they may be few and far between, but there are games– when Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball is practically untouchable. In situations where that’s the case, why remove him from the game after two innings or a predefined low pitch count, only to introduce a lesser-known variable– another pitcher’s “on-ness” on this given day– into the situation?

A likely result, then, of a team implementing an opening pitcher strategy would be an inevitable regression to the current starting pitching strategy. Once a pitcher has started pitching, a manager’s decision making becomes inherently more informed: before the game began, you were placing a bet on this guy’s performance based on his recent outings or history against a certain lineup, but after the game begins, you immediately have much more information. Does that knuckler look good today? Are guys connecting with it, even if they’re flying out? Is Wake’s beet-red neck sweating too profusely? And if your guy looks good, then you know you’re more likely to have continued success with him– after all, he’s pitching well now– than you are to have success with someone else.

Right?

Well, yes, but only to a point. And there’s the rub. Wakefield’s knuckler will start to hang sooner or later in most cases. If you cut him off early, you are preserving the non-outs you otherwise would have had to give up to find out precisely when that time will be. That seems to be the crux of the argument: that by reducing your odds of seeing an opener fail by limiting him to a couple of innings, you are effectively doing the same thing for the person pitching the middle innings. It’s just a smarter distribution of risk.

So I guess the question really is this: at what point do the odds of your opening pitcher continuing to pitch well become worse than the odds of a “starting” pitcher doing as well?

That, I think, is a question too complicated to be addressed by a strategy that’s defined by holding an opening pitcher to an arbitrary number of innings or pitches. That inflection point would probably come at a very different time for different pitchers (or, more accurately, for different pairings of pitchers) on different days. The opening pitcher idea seems valid, but much more difficult to implement smartly than by using predefined time periods.

Playing Pepper

2010-04-23T12:18:00.003-04:00

Here are a few random thoughts (mostly about baseball):

Adrian Beltre really should take a pitch or two. I feel that it dilutes the whole lineup's approach when one guy clearly doesn't buy in to the general approach.
Speaking of Beltre, about the infield grass in Fenway, he said recently: "But when you’re playing in or you get slow ground balls, it’s like a snake coming at you, so you have to kind of take a guess where the ball’s going to go. I guess through the course of the season I’ll get used to it... It’s not nice. It’s not a good field. It’s a snake. The grass is a snake coming at you. It not only affects your defense, it affects your confidence. Like you get in that mind-set that, ‘Oh, where’s the ball going to go?’ So you start thinking instead of just reaction. I hope that I just get all the ground balls back on the dirt, not on the grass.’’ This is not ok. Youk almost lost his face and a wicked hope Thu. night. I understand having a slow infield or a fast infield, but a bad infield? I play softball on the National Mall sometimes, dodging tourists, diving across manhole covers, and dealing with consistently inconsistent bounces. Shouldn't the Sox infielders expect more than might the FEC's softball team?
I was wrong about the Sox not re-signing Beckett. Sometimes I like being wrong.
It really annoys me to see so many stolen bases, but I also know that they are less important than getting the batter out. Maybe V-Mart can turn it around but I doubt it. I have to wonder how good a catching coach Gary Tuck really is. The Sox and the media talk about him like he's a god but we can't throw anyone out and I think it's mostly Tek, V-Mart, pitching coach John Farrell, and the pitchers doing the pitch calling.
Jon Lester wins the Cy Young in the year he doesn't completely suck in April.
"Welcome to the club Darnell McDonald," said Vaughn Eshelman and Creighton Gubanich.
Speaking of Sweet Darnell, why do baseball players insist on beating each other up if someone has a walk-off hit or closes out a big game? Hug, jump, etc. But pig piles, pounding on helmets, busted lips like McDonalds? Please stop before someone breaks a rookie pitcher when he throws a no-no. I'm surprised Buchholz is fully ambulatory still.
Why are five of the pitchers on the Sox staff from Texas?
I was alarmed to see that Friday night's pitcher for the Orioles, lefty rookie Brian Matusz, is getting paid $13 million this year. I know he's very talented and was picked #4 overall, but it's just further proof of how out of whack the salary "system" is in baseball. I don't care that people get paid a lot, but it's not as closely tied as it should be to real value. Jacoby Ellsbury is getting paid $496,500 (see Sox salaries here). That's a guy with a career .298 batting average, team record for steals, very good defender, 23rd pick in the draft, and popular franchise player getting paid about the league minimum. Top picks should be able to get a big signing bonus to - as it implies - get them to sign (and everyone from every country should enter the league through the draft), but then they should get paid according to experience and productivity. Ellsbury, Buchholz and Daniel Bard together make about what Hideki Okajima gets. Ridiculous.
I need to look up if the Sox could actually just release Papi. I was consistently supportive last year but you only get one year of being this bad for long stretches. He's pretty much worthless, and I really say that as I guy who looooooooves Papi. But a DH who can't H is SOL.
I like the way Josh Reddick plays. I saw him hit an opposite field dong last year in Baltimore. He has electric talent and if he learns plate discipline he'll take over for JD Drew after next season - if not before.
Part of me wants the Sox to move V-Mart to DH, dump Papi somehow, and platoon Tek and AAA catcher Mark Wagner. Wagner cannot hit (yet?) but his arm is golden.

Spring Training Re-Cap

2010-04-03T10:13:00.002-04:00

Sitting in Florida, I feel like talking about spring training before turning the page to the regular season - hope vs. reality.

The good news out of camp is that John Lackey - to my surprise - looked like he was worth every penny. He walked only one batter and kept his ERA at 1.35 (to see the spring training stats for the team, click here.) He only struck out 8 in 20 innings, but he doesn't really seem like that kind of pitcher. He has a 7.2 strikeout/walk ratio for his career; Beckett's is 8.5. I surprised how optimistic I am about Lackey - and excited albeit still skeptical about the rumored closeness of a long term deal for Beckett.

Meanwhile, Wakefield look effective and healthy, Lester is great (though I'd love to see him finally start a season well) and Buchholz will be fine. I love this rotation.

The roster of insurance starters available for the Sox is still deep but has more questions than earlier in the spring. Dice-K starts on the DL and will probably surface right when someone comes up with a bad back or blistered finger. Japanese phenom Junichi Tazawa broke down and had Tommy John surgery. It'll be the middle of next season before he's back to full strength.

Meanwhile, AAA ace Michael Bowden was knocked around this spring and I'm worried about his future. ProJo wrote about Bowden complete overhaul of his approach to pitching and baseball in general. This from a kid who's known for his hard work and intensity, has the talent to be one of the team's top prospects, is only 23 years old, had a solid 3.13 ERA in his first full season at Pawtucket last year, and looked good in most of his relief appearance last year in Boston - but has grotesque stats because of two clubings he took from the Bombers. This strikes me as a kid who is too competitive and can't deal with playing second fiddle to Buchholz and being passed by Tazawa last year. I'm worried these changes will really backfire. Calling Bob Tewksbury (former all star pitcher now the Sox sports psyhologist).

The next group includes Casey Kelly who I think the Sox will give a cup or two of coffee to this year, but will be very cautious about moving him too quickly and about his inning totals after playing shortstop half of last year. Lefty Felix Doubrant impressed this spring but is also not ready. After that the Sox would have to rely on spot starts from the likes of Boof Bonser.

Speaking of Bonser, he'll start the year on the DL but will likely pitch quite a bit out of the pen this year. The Sox were in a nice position of stregth at the end of the spring when they picked Scott Atchison and Scott Schoeneweis to fill out the last two spots in the pen. This leaves them with Bonser and Dice-K coming off the DL soon, veterans Joe Nelson and Alan Embree waiting in Pawtucket, and young lefty Dustin Richardson preparing for a roll as well. All these guys will be needed this year.

In the lineup, the newsless drama of the spring focused on whether Mike Lowell was smiling or not. He's not and neither should he be. If he didn't care anymore he'd retire. That said, I am now in the camp that we should just keep Lowell and platoon him with Papi and let him backup Beltre and Youk. That should be quite a few at bats and a better team.

The other big question was backup shortstop (Quick aside: let's appreciate the fact that it's the backup we're interested in for the first time in a long time. The lack of news about starter Marco Scutaro is a very good sign.). Jed Lowrie broke down early and it's never good when you're relieved he has mono because there was fear he was really badly sick - Baldelli-style. Billy Hall will be a great asset to the Sox this year and can play every position including short, but no one really wants to see him there for 15 days if Scutaro was hurt. The Sox traded for Kevin Frandsen from the Giants and sent him to Pawtucket as insurance. The essence of the problem is that if Scutaro went down for a long period of time, the next full-time shortstop in the franchise is Cuban ex-pat, 20-year old phenom Jose Iglesias and the Sox really don't want to rely on him yet. While the kid clearly thinks he's ready for the big leagues, everyone is best off letting him learn to hit and put some polish on his graceful fielding in Portland and Pawtucket for this year and much of next. Looks like if something major happened to Scutaro they'd have to trade for talent.

After those story lines, there's been the questions about Beckett's contract, continued fretting about Papi's productivity and curiosity at what kind of production we can expect out of Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre.

The fact is that the Sox will probably have to add a bat at some point this season depending on who falters. The bullpen should be very good though there's reason to wonder about Paps and Delcarman has looked freakishly bad from all reports.

Game on.

No Mo' Nomah

2010-03-10T14:32:00.006-05:00

I'm glad to see Nomar come back to the Sox for a day to retire. I always loved the guy and I'm glad there are no hard feelings after he was cast aside in 2004. Frankly, he just wasn't the right fit for the Sox anymore - though it's tragic to me that he couldn't win a championship with the team.

Garciaparra was a mesmerizing player to watch. Seemingly out of control in the field with is off-balance, side-armed throws. Always balanced at the plate, hitting pitches in and out of the strikezone on a line all over the field.

The man had 684 at bats as a rookie - 29th all time for a single season. It's what you get when you bat leadoff and swing at everything.

That same year he had a career high in hits (209), hit 11 triples, 30 homers and drove in 98 - again, batting leadoff. It was the start of a dynamic, explosive career. The next year he drove in 122 runs. Then he hit .357 and .372 in 1999 and 2000. Alongside Ichiro, he looked at one point like the best chance we've had in a long time to see a .400 hitter.

Then, after a good 2003 campaign (.301, 28, 105, 13 triples), it fell apart. He only played 38 games for the Sox in 2004 before they traded him. He never again played more than 122 games, stole more than 3 bases, or hit better than .303.

On top of the statistics, he was an icon. His name was his dad's name reversed. He won the College World Series for Georgia Tech alongside Jason Varitek and Jay Payton. He married the beautiful soccer superstar Mia Hamm. He played the game in his own almost-out-of-control way which was at times both maddening and brilliant to watch.

We'll miss you Nomaahh.

Beckett's Last Stand

2010-03-05T18:00:00.001-05:00

If everything goes according to plan, Josh Beckett will not be a Red Sox in 2011. That said, there is a lot of room for that plan to falter.

The Sox currently have two veteran aces (Beckett and Lackey), an up-and-coming ace (Lester) a future ace (Buchholz), quality veterans (Wake and Dice-K), and a future stud (Casey Kelly). We also have in-the-wings, mid-level prospects (Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden).

If the plan as I see it works, then in 2011, everyone moves up. Lackey and Lester are the established aces. Buchholz will be the up-and-coming ace. Wake, Dice-K, Tazawa and probably a short-term free agent signing (Brad Penny-esque) will fill out the other two spots in the rotation and they will aim to get Kelly 10-15 big league starts as they did with Buchholz a few years back. In this scenario, Beckett is pitching elsewhere.

This is a great plan. It will probably fail.

It will likely fail because one of these pessimistic scenarios will probably happen in 2010 thus hurting the 2011 plan: Lackey will not be an ace he's supposed to be but rather a 3rd or 4th starter; Buchholz will not step up as we all hope/expect him to this year; some one is traded away or injured; or Casey Kelly is less than spectacular and stalls in the sub-AAA minors (a la Lars Anderson in 2009).

If the plan does take a hit this year, then the Sox will want to keep Beckett. The question will be their budget. They can't reasonably offer the ace less than they gave Lackey (same age, results, health, etc.). But I don't see them wanting two 36 year old righties getting paid tens of millions in 2015 which is what they'd end up with if they gave Beckett the contract they gave Lackey.

So, since they have a backup plan, and since I don't see how they sign Beckett, I expect he'll walk next off season. Then again, if we win the series, maybe they just over commit themselves a bit.

Fan Logic

2010-02-22T18:20:00.000-05:00

I like reading the Q&A's with the Globe baseball writers in part because of new intel from the reporters but also because of the questions of my fellow fans. Here are some of my favorite ideas frequently spouted - hyperbole added - and my very-hyper-reasoned responses:

The Sox should just go ahead now and get Adrian Gonzalez already. The reason Gonzalez doesn't play for the Sox is because he currently plays very well for not that much money for another professional baseball team which also wants to win games. Despite appearances, the Sox did not lease Jed Hoyer to the monks in order for him to slip us treats under the table. Rather, the Padres are trying to rebuild a franchise and their interest is purely in doing what's best for the Padres - which currently is playing one of the best firstbasemen in the game every day then maybe trading him for Bartolo Colon's ransom (read: a lot).
No way this team will hit enough to win. The Sox love to talk about "keep the line moving" which comes down to a combination of not making outs and slugging percentage (i.e. power when you make contact, but not necessarily homerun totals). This team is extremely deep with Beltre, Drew, Cameron and Scutaro rounding out the bottom of the order and turning it over to the all star-clad top. They will score slightly fewer runs than last year and give up far fewer. Net results: more wins and better in close games (like the ones that seem to crop up more in Oct.)
What do you think about a 6 man rotation? Not going to happen in any set form this year or probably ever. There may be times for a week or two when that would work out to give everyone an extra day of rest, but otherwise this is a non-starter. The five man rotation is here to stay. No one will go with 4 man rotation and 6 is bad for budgets and pitching.
Daniel Bard should be the closer cause he throws 100mph and Papelbon blew it in the playoffs. Makes sense. Ken Ryan clearly worked out as a dominant Sox closer. Kyle Farnsworth rivals Mariano Rivera as the best closer in the game. Doug Jones didn't fool anyone with his change up to a change up to a 80 mph heater. The point is that throwing hard is only part of success as a closer. Oh, and Papelbon is one of the best in the game.
Lowell should be traded for someone really good. I love the guy but if he's traded you'll at best get a mid-level talent, and only if you pay most of his salary. Not a good deal for the Sox no matter how he preforms in Ft. Myers.
We should sign Joe Mauer when he becomes a free agent next year. Similar to the Gonzalez situation above, Mauer is great and young and the team that has him wants him. Unlike Gonzalez, Mauer also wants to stay in Minnesota and would probably take a hometown discount to stay there and go Robin Yount on the twin cities by staying there his whole career. If he's ever a Red Sox, it'll be as a 39 year old designated hitter in 2021.

Starting tonight at left-stop....

2010-01-13T18:46:00.000-05:00

...Jacoby Ellsbury. Stick with me here. Scutaro will move a little in and to the left. Ellsbury will play behind the dirt - of course! - but not too far off the infield. He'll play the most shallow left field in baseball history. How many balls would get over his head if he played very shallow? And the ones that do, would be doubles or homers, just as they would if he played deeper.

Seriously, it seems that he could play shallow in the Fens. Though, I guess I'll retreat from the short-field post a la softball.

Jacoby Ellsbury's speed in the relatively-small space of Fenway's leftfield might be the end of the single.

Yet, the conventional wisdom remains that the Sox should have a leftfielder who can mash at the plate rather than run in the field. Looking back through the years (here) as far back as I recognize the names, the Sox have really only had one guy who could really run in left: Tommy Harper (1973 and part of '74 years, he was in center in '72) - and maybe Billy Hatcher but he wasn't that fast and he was mostly a center fielder.

While I fully support of sticking the bat of Manny Ramirez or the Splendid Splinter in the shadow of the Green Monster, I think that we tend to look at this a bit backwords. Most people I talk to consider speed in Fenway's left field "a waste". However, while the size of the territory does somewhat mask slowness afoot of lumbering leftfielders, it also allows a swift sprinter in left to cover a rediculous precentage of the field of play.

And there are other advantages to the switch to left. I swear on my Red Sox hat that I will (almost) never again quote uber-evil-agent Scott Boras, but he had an interesting historic point about Ellsbury's switch to left: “The issue is that he’s so athletic offensively, stealing 70 bases and scoring 100 runs. Historically, the guys who do that, they all have to be left fielders because [center field is] just so demanding." Think Tim Raines, Carl Crawford, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman and Rickey being Rickey.

I think this is the right move for the Sox. This makes us a better team and does not set Ellsbury back in his developement - it probably helps in on the bases and lets him focus a little more on hitting. Ellsbury will simply move back whenever Cameron runs out of steam in the next two years.

New Line-Up Better Than the Old Line-Up

2009-12-31T16:08:00.001-05:00

This is a truly different Red Sox team. The team is excellent defensively and on the mound, with plenty of offense to make this work. There is no longer anyone on the free agent market worth the Sox signing to upgrade the offense. If they need offense, their best bet is a mid-season trade.

On defense, the Sox will have Gold Glove caliber defenders at every position besides catcher. All their outfielders can run. And their infield should be excellent as well. I feel good when my biggest defensive concerns, after V-Mart's arm, are how good Youk really is at third (he has never played a full season there in the majors), how much range does Scutaro have at short, and poor throwing arms in left and centerfield. Not too shabby.

Offensively, everyone underestimates Casey Kotchman (firstbase). He's good enough that the Braves accepted Kotchman and a minor league pitcher for Mark Texeira two years ago - a price tag was admitedly skewed by it being T's last year before signing with the Yanks. He is an elite fielder who never strikes out and can hit for average - and maybe power someday. And that's our 8th or 9th hitter.

Essentially, assuming Lowell doesn't regain his spot, here is the turn over from mid-season last year to now at 1B, 3B, and catcher. Then: Youk, Lowell, Tek. Now: Youk, V-Mark, Kotchman. I'll take "now".

Then: Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez. Now: Scutaro.
Then: Jason Bay. Now: Mike Cameron

Offensively, I think the net gain of getting Scutaro and V-Mart for a full season slightly beats out the loss of Bay. And Cameron is no slouch. He has pop and walks quite a lot.

My point is, offensively, we are slightly better now than we were most of last year. Then you add in a almost too good bench of Lowell, Lowrie, Tek and Hermidia and you're doin' just fiiiine.

Oh, and I think we signed a pitcher.

Update: Oops. Kotcham was traded. I saw that coming?

Trade: Ramirez to/from the Texas Rangers

2009-12-21T21:35:00.003-05:00

I call to order this meeting of the Texas Rangers executives. Let's start this thing off. Steve, I think you said you had an update on negotiations with the Red Sox on trading a Ramirez... or was it getting a Ramirez. Anyway, Steve?

Thanks Bob. The Sox have offered to trade us Ramirez. We're negotiating to let them pay his salary while we send them some talent from our system. The good news is, as per regular order, this trade will simply not go through.

How so?

Well, it's like you've said so often Bob: "why make a trade when you can act like you're making a trade but really not do anything but it still feels like a trade which is fun and sort of exciting but in this case still changes nothing which is safer which I like which is good which I like." Remember when you said that?

I did?

Ok enough about that. The other trade we have in the works, not coincidentally also with the Red Sox and involving a Ramirez, involves us getting an old third basement who hits well but moves like a Icelandic glacier. Ok, hear me out, we trade Ramirez, our Ramirez to the Red Sox for Sir Sloughalot and then, weeks later, we look at an x-ray of his body - any part really, he's a 35 year old athlete - we "discover" an injury and call it off. Won't that be fun? Oh I'm gitty now!

What the hell are you...

Next year, here's what I'm thinking: the Red Sox have a reliever, his name is Ramon Ramirez...

Moving from Lowell

2009-12-10T22:36:00.003-05:00

Looks like the Sox are on the verge of trading Mike Lowell to the Rangers for 25-year old slugging (??) unpositioned Max Ramirez and millions of dollars.

I'll try to get back to you about the value of Max Ramirez (3rd catcher who can maybe blossem as a hitter?). But it seems like the speculation is that this means the Sox will try to sign Adrian Beltre, late of Seattle.

It's a bad move to sign Beltre to a 4-5 year deal for big money. He's a great defensive third baseman who has had some big offensive years. I also understand why they think he'd hit significantly better with Fenway as his home rather than massive Safeco.

That said, he'll be 31 this season which means he'd be close to... Lowell's age when the contract is up. He's a bad on-base guy which also plays against the Sox overall game plan. He's a good player, but I don't see how he fits with the Sox right now.

The bottom line to me is that Lowell should be more healthy next season than he was this season, a season in which he was slow in the field and basepaths, but hit rather well. I expect him to hit better next year. Then, his contract ends and the Sox could reevaluate.

So if this plays out, the Sox gain Adrian Beltre and Max Ramirez and lose Mike Lowell and about $10 million (Beltre's probable salary and the lack of losing Lowell's salary since the Sox will have to pay it to dump him). I think the Sox have minimal net gain yet risk being sattled with a mediocre Beltre at a large price tag.

Then again, if the Sox stay pat at third they are much worse defensively and they don't have minor league depth at third.

I would not trade Lowell if it's intended to make room for Beltre. But for an Andrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, I'm all for it.

Shortstops

2009-11-27T10:28:00.002-05:00

The Blue Jays signed 2-time, former-Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez today to a one year deal with an option. So, the Sox' quest to fill that moves on with one answer: Gonzo won't be back.

The Sox seem to have (rightly) decided that they cannot start next season with Jed Lowrie as the starter. I still think that a healthy Lowrie can be a very good major league starting infielder. He can really hit and doesn't make many mistakes on offense. I remember when he was in the minors the talk was as if he was a switching hitting Pedroia with more power. Yet, his calling card thus far with the Sox has been defense. That said, he's been injured a lot so far.

The best option for the Sox is Marco Scutaro. He had a career year last year at the age of 34 with the Blue Jays. With the Jays moving on to Gonzo, Scutaro is truely a free agent. His age will keep the price and length reasonable. His career as a utility guy (career games by position: 3 at 1B, 306 at 2B, 98 at 3B, 415 at SS, 14 at LF, and 4 at RF) and his high on base skills make him a perfect Sox. He could start until (if) Lowrie makes the Sox switch starters. If that happens, he'd be a great utility man. His age will keep the the contract short enough that he won't stand in the way of future star, 19 year old Cuban ex-pat Jose Iglesias.

If this doesn't work out, the Sox will either need to sign someone from an unspectacular list including Miguel Tejada, Khalil Greene, and Orlando Cabrera. Or they go with Lowrie, a Wish, and a prayer. After Scutaro, my money would be on going with Lowrie with a cheap good-fielding backup like former-Sox Alex Cora or Adam Everett.

Pitch Perfect (almost)

2009-11-03T17:52:00.004-05:00

The Sox do not have a whole lot of room for improvement in their pitching staff. The difference between this starting rotation and a championship staff is a little more offense and a truly dominant playoff performance or two - something I think we can count on from the likes of Misters Beckett and Lester as much as with any other team's dynamic duo.

The only chance for a major upgrade is with a blockbuster trade for someone like the Mariners' Felix Hernandez. But, the Mariners had a good year this year and I expect them to resign their ace. Also, those trades are not easy and can backfire. The Sox pulled one off when the infamous (why is that again?) former GM Dan Duquette traded Tony Armas, Jr. and Carl Pavano for Pedro. But, for every one of those trades, there's one trade where the Expos rent Bartolo Colon (at the time one of the best pitchers in the game) for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips (all of whom are stars today).

Meanwhile, Beckett and Lester are both true aces. I don't like the murmurs of trading Beckett because he's in the last year of his deal - though I see that it's something that should be considered I guess. Lester is right there with the likes of Sabathia and Santana as dominant lefties. He'll win a Cy Young if he starts off the year as he's ended the last two - in 2008 and 2009 he had post-break ERAs in the 2's and a combined 16-5 record. As for Beckett, he seems a bit inconsistent, but I don't think he's any more inconsistant than other aces in the league. You're bound to have some bad steaks in 30+ starts and the hallmark of a good pitcher is getting out of those unavoidable tailspins and Beck lives up to that.

Likewise, Clay Buchholz proved he's a keeper with a micro verson of what I just said about Beck on a macro level. That is, Buchholz would struggle for an inning or two then settle himself and keep the team in the game. In 2007, Lester had a second decent partial-major league season which ended with a very good playoff start, launching him into what we know now. I think we saw Buchholz in 2009 have a similar year and a similar turning point.

Dice-K needs to come to camp in great shape. I expect he will because he must know he's on the verge of failure. He simply cannot have another year like 2009 and expect to have a rotation spot on any team in 2011, let alone the Red Sox. He's a proud and very talented athlete and I expect him to be motivated and have his best year yet. He has every tool to be a dominant starter. That said, the Sox need to be prepared in case he falters.

I was wrong about Wake. I was convinced all year that this was his last one. He was hurting, getting older, and made the all star team so I thought it made sense that this would be the offseason he'd bid us farewell. That said, he's still effective and I'm sure he was disappointed with his non-existant second half of the season. While his surgery might have fixed things, he's still 43 years old and there's a reason why almost no one pitches that long. The body breaks down. And no, being a knuckleballer does not negate this arguement. He still puts effort into every pitch; he just doesn't have much of an arm and the force is lost because he's holding the ball with his fingernails.

The Wake situation almost guarantees youngster Michael Bowden a roster spot. He's a starter with a good chance to be a solid 4 or 5 in a rotation someday. He pitched very well at Pawtucket last year. Also, in short relief for the Sox in a few outings last season, he looked like that might be where he ends up at the major league level. He throws pretty hard and is agressive in the strike zone. He fits perfectly into the roll as long man and Wakefield backup. Junichi Tazawa will be his top competition for this spot but I think the less-experienced Tazawa is best off learning in Pawtucket and coming up when a starter goes down for an extended time rather than a spot-start.

The bullpen is very good. Very good! Papelbon is great and will remain the closer for at least a few more years. Daniel Bard is dominant; Ramon Ramirez (70 games, 2.84 ERA) was very solid; Oki had another good year; and Delcarman* had a great first half and a stinker of a tailend. The team has likely lost Saito (who I kept forgetting all year but really was great) and Rent-a-Wagner. At this point I think the last roster spot goes to 6'6" lefty rookie Dustin Richardson. I loved the way he looked in his 3 Boston games this year and I think we should have a second lefty when possible. That said, I am sure Epstein will bring in a few free agent relievers to compete for spots.

I frankly worry that Oki might be about done. His "stuff" has never been great but last year it seemed pretty bad, like he was getting by with Frank Tanana junk and moxy (what is moxy? or guile? Do I have either? Probably not...). I hope I'm wrong about my Oki hunch, but the Sox could really use a Wagner-esque set up guy to help out the still very young Bard (of course, which team couldn't use someone like Wagner?).

There are a few free agents I'd take a flyer on if you can afford them - a la Brad Penny and Smoltz. Ben Sheets took last year off to rehab from arm surgery. He's planning to comeback this year and given his often-dominant track record when healthy, he should get a good deal of attention from a number of teams but still not get priced too high. I also like the idea of the Sox signing a free agent lefty starter. I wouldn't mind signing Erik Bedard or Doug Davis. Bedard has the most talent but is usually hurt. Davis is way under the radar but consistently good (though probably not under the radar of "real" GMs, as opposed to backseat executives like yours truly).

This staff it appears will be throwing to the same two catchers, V-Mart and Tek. I hope the coaching staff puts more emphasis this year on holding runners because neither of these guys has the throwing talent to make up for the staff's indifference toward baserunners. The team recently released George Kottaras (someone I always really rooted for for some reason) whose landed with the Brewers. It looks like Dusty Brown - who leads to team in name-awesomeness - will be primary fall-back plan in case of an injury with a possible switch to the younger and more talented Mark Wagner if he's ready. I hope Wagner gets a cup of coffee this year because he might be the backup in 2011.

*If you made it this far you can read one more rambling paragraph. I love local boy mini-Manny Delcarman. But he was baaaaad at the end of last year. There has always been talk about trading him to a place where he'd get a chance to close or be the primary set up guy, but now is not the time to trade him as his value is probably lower than it should be. My random thought is this: if Manny's surgically repaired arm can take it (big if), why not bring him into spring training as a starter? The guy throws hard and has a nasty change-up and curve. He has three good pitches and I think his maddening inability to pound the strike zone is actually a bit more managable as a starter than a reliever. That said, I think of this more like what the Sox did with Pap a few years ago. Bring Delcarman into camp and let him see if starting works for him. Doubtful he'll make the rotation but maybe he does. If he doesn't, he'd be ready to spot start and it might raise his trade value. Just a thought.

In the market for hitters

2009-10-20T21:53:00.011-04:00

I am not going to dwell on the debacle that was the ALDS. The Sox couldn't hit against two good-but-not-great pitchers (Lackey and Weaver) and then Papelbon blew game 3. That said, the Sox were and are a good team. They have some great young players (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, and Paps) and great prime-of-career players (Beckett, Youkilis, and V-Mart).

The first thing I'll say is that Papelbon is far from done and is still one of the elite closers. You should loo k at the closers out there. Rivera and Nathan are maybe better - though guess who blew game 2 for the Twins this year and guess who Dave Roberts scored against a few years back. Paps is also 28 years old, as opposed to Nathan's 34 or Rivera's 73 years of age. For young guns, I'd only consider 25-year olds Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers - blew the last playoff game), Andrew Bailey (A's), or Joakim Soria (Royals) as having even a chance of being as good as Paps is at his worst. Lastly, Daniel Bard is not at all ready and will not be for a few years. And even at that point, he might simply not translate into a closer - ask Kyle Farnsworth, his 100 mph gas, and his 27 saves in 10 solid years.

With that, let's chat about the hitters. I'll take on the rest of the pitching staff later.

The Starting Nine

The Sox can upgrade at a few positions, but only if they move from good, to great players. They could possibly upgrade at four roster spots: Papi, Lowell, Gonzalez and maybe Bay. Papi ended up playing pretty well for the season as a whole but was maddeningly inconsistent. With Papi and Bay in the lineup you have two guys who can hit 30 homers while spending months as an easy out. Go figure.

Lowell too had a decent year and should be better next year with added recovery time from his hip injury. That said, Lowell and Papi had, respectively, a .208 and .144 slugging differential between home and away. The Sox struggled with streaky hitting and terrible production away from the Fens. These two are the biggest culprits of the regulars in a slugging drop off once they leave the friendly confines (though Peddy wasn't much better unsurprisingly).

Bay was at times great. He carried the team and was very good in nearly every aspect of the game. Though, like the others I just mentioned, he's the ant-Youk and V-Mart. When he's not playing well he would bounce out on a Wakefield "heater." They don't seem to give you good at bats when they're not hitting. When Papi, Lowell and Bay are all struggling, you should hope your pitcher throws a shutout.

At short, Gonzalez was a beautiful fielder who surprised a bit with his bat. However, he has limited range and has a track record of being a terrible hitter. There are definitely better shortstops out there but I'm not sure we'll get one.

The Sox have limited high-level offensive prospects they can count on for anything next year so don't look to Pawtucket or Portland for a savior in the lineup. Josh Reddick is the closest to ready any hitter is and he's not there yet. Aside from him, outfielder Ryan Kalish, shortstop Yamaico Navarro, and first baseman Lars Anderson are the only prospects with much of any chance to sip coffee next year. Part of me wants the team to let someone like Navarro - or completely untested, 19 year old Cuban ex-pat Jose Iglesias - sink or swim at shortstop. I always wonder about these slick fielding, super raw, young infielders: really, I say to me, what would you lose with them running around like Rey Ordonez but hitting like... Rey Ordonez. Isn't that sort of what Gonzalez gives us - with less range but fewer errors? Anyway, I'm sure Tito knows best on this one but I had to share that.

At short, the Sox should either resign Gonzalez for a year, or go after Marco Scutaro - the 33 year old career utility guy had a breakout year for Toronto. He can hit and field, and he should not cost a ton since he's 33 and has a scant record as an everyday player. But, worse case scenario, he's a great backup and can play more positions than Gonzo. Lowrie still might be very good someday, but they have to have a plan A and make Jed force them to play him.

To upgrade from Lowell, the Sox would have to make a trade for a first baseman and move Youk to third full-time. The best candidates I can see who might be tradebait are Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn and Derrek Lee (who has a no-trade clause). All three will be in the last years of their contracts.

The other option I love is to somehow convince the Angels - yes, those Angels - that they should trade us third baseman/shortstop Brandon Wood. He's only 24 but for this is the third year in a row the Angels did not give this young slugger a regular spot in their line-up. This isn't going to happen but I'd love to put him at third.

As for left field, the Sox pretty much need Jason Bay. No way Matt Holliday is coming back to the American League and the free agent pool for outfielders is weak at best. The other options are that you could let Reddick or Aaron Bates learn out there, pray for Rocco and a back up, make a trade, pay for Carl Crawford if the Rays don't exercise their $10 mill. option, or sign someone like Myron Byrd, Andrew Jones, or Xavier Nady - yeah, those are pretty much the choices.

So, the Sox lineup could use some improvement but there aren't too many options out there. Epstein has shocked us before so maybe he'll pull a crazy one out of his hat.

Keys to Game 3

2009-10-11T12:11:00.003-04:00

Here's how you win this game over a team that would thus have lost the game.

Be more better than the Angels
Pitch well
Score more runs within 9 innings than the other team can score.
Score more than zero runs - the more runs you score, the better.
Don't walk Bobby Abreau four times
Hit a ball over the outfield fence. Doing that counts for at least one run every time.
Win one game at a time. You literally can't win three games in one day, literally. It'd be really tiring anyway.

Re- and Preview

2009-10-07T08:29:00.007-04:00

The regular season is done, complete with 95 wins. Let's have a quick look back then a look forward toward the playoffs. In the 2009 regular season, we saw:

Papi's career was erroneously pronounced dead twice this year. Once for a remarkably bad start to the season. And a second time when he slumped dramatically following the revelation that he used a "banned substance" - probably, maybe, according to an anonymous source illegally leaking court documents. It really shouldn't surprise us that Papi's productivity so closely relates to his mental state (slump one snowballed under massive pressure and slump two he was accused of cheating). I'm just glad he's usually so jolly and thus productive.
There were points when it looked like Gil Valazquez might be our starting shortstop. Anyone's list of team MVP should include Nick Green for not being an easy out and making a few plays at short. He stepped up pre-Gonzo after Lugo (surprise!) sucked and Lowrie (surprise!) watched his wrist implode.
Jason Varitek proved he really can't throw or hit anymore. He's basically done. He might be back next year if he picks up his $3 million player option. But the Sox shouldn't pick up their $5 million team option. The team would be better off with Dusty Brown playing good defense as V-Mart's back up.
Lester showed he's the real deal. Remember, this was only his second good year really. I can't believe he's only 25.
We all fell in love with V-Mart. He makes for a lineup with tough outs 1-8.
It appears we've seen the last of Wake. With his age (43) and back issues, I don't see him coming back next year. He went out with an all-star appearance and a first half of the season during which he saved the team. I wish he could pull a Willis Reed moment but I sort of doubt it's in the cards. Regardless, Wake will be missed and he'll be one of the hardest Sox legends to describe to future fans ("he was great and bad, started and closed. He was left off playoff rosters and pitched key key innings. Gave up the Aaron Boone homer and saved the 2004 champions by getting crushed for 3 1/3 innings of 'relief'... got it?" )

Looking to the playoffs:

In what feels like opposite world, I'm more concerned about the bullpen than the starters. Lester and Beckett can win 3 of 4 games against any opposing duo. That will rely on Buchholz and Dice-K to be good enough to win only a couple games. I like our chances with this math equation.
My concern is with the bad Sept. pitching of bullpen stalwarts Oki, Ramirez and Delcarman. Meanwhile, Bard is a rookie and Wagner is fragile. For the first time this year, I worry about getting to Paps.
This is a different Angels team and the patience of Bobby Abreau and the emergence of young power-hitting Kendry Morales really gives them a new look. I worry that their new patience will force more reliance on the Sox middle relief than is past years, something I wouldn't have feared in August when Delcarman could get someone out.
Our lineup is confusing. It's very deep and will wear out a pitcher. However, it seems that good pitching can shut it down more so than a great lineup. To win these games we'll need Ellsbury to create a few runs with his legs and we'll need homers from Bay and Drew. I expect solid production from Peddy, Youk and V-Mart - but not necessarily homeruns.
Our defense is really excellent right now. When your weak link is Jason Bay's arm and Mike Lowell's mobility, you're doing well. With one massive exception...
V-Mart is not a whole lot better than Tek in throwing people out. This is part talent, but more so a Joe Kerrigan-esque, wanton disregard for holding runners on from our pitchers. This will be improved by the fact that neither Wake nor Brad Penny will pitch, but still it's scary. I fully expect Chone Figgins to steal home from second base sometime this series.
At the risk of jinxing us, I don't think John Lackey is very good. We have a much better starting four than they do. My biggest worry is that Scott Kazmir could probably shut down the Sox with his right arm - and he's a lefty.
The roster: good move to put Lowrie on the roster. Even if Green were healthy, Lowrie is a better fielder and better hitter righty. He's shown he physically can hit lefty even though they'd rather he didn't right now because of the wrist. Also, the rules let them take him off the roster if he breaks down (which would make him ineligable for the following series I believe). Delcarman shouldn't make the roster because he's been bad and he's hurt from a car accident. Joey Gathright and Baldelli or Brian Anderson will be the outfield backup. I don't think they'll go with 3 catchers. Lastly, looks like Byrd will get the long relief duty rather than risk the mental health of Bowden if you made him clean up some disasterous game.
Prediction: Lester and Beckett will dominate. Bay and Drew will crush the ball. Pedroia, Youk and V-Mart will be on base constantly. Chone Figgins will score half the time he gets on. Angels' closer/firestarter Brian Fuentes will blow a couple saves. The Sox will beat the Angels in five.

You can see the playoff schedule here. First two games start at 9:30pm on Thu. and Fri. night. I'm tired already. Matchups: Lackey vs. Lester, Weaver vs. Beckett, Kazmir vs. Buchholz, Saunders vs. Dice-K (probably).

Musical Bats

2009-08-28T16:09:00.002-04:00

The talk of the Red Sox world seems to be the playing time distribution of the corner infielders, catchers, and DHs (Ok, people are also worried about starting pitching, and most anything else depending on the day as well. But I digress.).

The Sox have six players with starting credentials and four spots. The players are Youk, Victor Martinez, Mike Lowell, Papi, Tek and Casey Kotchman. Seems like there are a lot of theories out there on how to make this work. Really though, there is one answer and it's exactly what they're doing now.

Youkilis and V-Mart will play every day. They are your third and clean-up hitters, good or great fielders who can each play two hard positions.

Kotchman is good, but he's a bench player. He'll probably play first when Wake pitches until further notice because if Wake can't walk you don't want Lowell at third, and with Martinez catching him, Youk has to play third. Kotchman is our first base Miribelli.

That leaves two spots for Lowell, Papi and Tek. The best line up has Tek sitting. That said, Martinez is not an everyday catch so he should start about 2 days a week at first.

So, Tek catches Lester and Beckett. Kotchman firstbases Wake for now. That means Lowell plays third and Ortiz DH's when Buchholz and Tazawa pitch. On the other three days, they platoon at DH.

Simple.

This is a great problem to have. If anyone thinks that Lowell or Papi will cause a problem, I highly disagree. In hockey, Lowell would wear an A on his jersey. And Papi just wants to be loved after the "steroid" scandal

Big Victory (i.e. Lose)

2009-08-13T22:46:00.004-04:00

Today was a good game for the Sox - perhaps more important than a quote unquote win. Yeah yeah, they lost. But Buchholz pitched a second straight very good game. I could be wrong... I might be wrong... ok, given "reality" and "history", I probably am wrong. But this could be that point when a great talent becomes a good pitcher. Buchholz has shut down the Yankees and Tigers the last two times out. He's look confident and used all of those pitches well - the reason the don't even consider him as a bullpen possibility. This is the reason we didn't trade him away. While we're at it, any thoughts on a nickname if Clay Buchholz is good... or if he's bad?

Claystien?
Buchole?
Skinny Holz?

Damn, drawing a blank. Help me...

So You're Saying There's a Chance...

2009-08-13T08:36:00.002-04:00

We lose six in a row to our main division rivals, the Yankees and Tampa. Then we come back to win three in a row against a good Tigers team - five games over five hundred and leading a three-team race for the central title by two games over the Pale Hose and Twinkies. What to make of this?

The Sox are a good team which should still make the playoffs in a tight race with the Rangers and Rays. The main differences between the Yankees and Sox last weekend were a) Alex Rodriquez is just insanely good, and b) the Sox were so injured that Enrique Gonzalez (he of the now three straight years of +10 ERA) and Chris Woodward had to play, and Youkilis had to play outfield.

To the first point, the Sox lost two of the four Yankees games at least in part because A-Rod hit good pitches. Tazawa's pitch in the 15th inning looked like a rolling breaking ball but in a good location. Similarly, A-Rod broke another 0-0 tie with a solo shot in the 7th inning of the last game of the series. Again, A-Rod crushed a breaking ball that was appropriately low, this time from Lester. Sometimes great hitters crush good pitches. Right now, the Sox don't themselves have a power hitter who can kill a good pitcher's good pitch. That was the difference maker.

The fact is that the Sox have a great bullpen, 2 ace starters, and a deep line up in which our 7th hitter is either Lowell, Bay, Drew, Papi, or Kotchman. Not too shabby. The Sox lack an elite power hitter (V-Mart and Youk are great hitters with power, not elite power hitters). No one is sure what we'll get from Penny, Buchholz or Tazawa the rest of the season, though there are reasons for optomism. We do need Wake back and even Dice-K seems like a better and better option, this year.

My point is that the Sox are still a good team and back-to-back sweeps by the Rays and Yanks didn't nullify that. The Sox were playing away from home against very good teams when we were extremely banged up. I hoped for a split of both series. No such luck. Moving on.

New Look, New Address: BoSoxWally.com

2009-08-12T08:23:00.001-04:00

If you're here, you know. Bosox Wally has a new look. The hope is to change it more in the coming months but we'll see.

Also, more importantly, Bosox Wally has a new web address. While the old address still works, you no longer have any excuse for forgetting the URL. Just type in bosoxwally.com and you're home. You'll be welcomed with a hearty bowl of baseball awesomeness and embraced in the loving arms of ballfield knowledge. Welcome home. Welcome to the new Bosox Wally.

Papi Pills

2009-07-31T19:21:00.004-04:00

First, I'll admit that I am a biased Red Sox fan. Second, I'll tell you that I have not been one to talk about the steroids era and baseball cheating much.

I have left myself willfully ignorant of all things "controlled substance." The fact is that baseball is entertainment. These men are not my - nor should they be anyone's - moral beacons.

On the other hand, I do not condone cheating. That said, it is less offensive to me when it does not mean a competitive advantage.

The fact is, as so many players names are exposed from the list of 103, it has become clear that so many players - elite and plebeian alike - were taking things to enhance their skills.

As this interesting and seemingly reputable recent op-ed in the NY Times points out, baseball players - and I'm guessing all elite athletes in all sports - have always done everything they can to physically and psychologically survive and excel during a season. He notes the substance use of the era-diverse likes of Paul Molitor, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Sandy Koufax and Mickey Mantle.

I have no doubt that the David Ortiz of 2003 - and other years I'm sure - who was taking or using something to enhance his ability was batting against pitchers who were also chemically enhancing themselves and hitting into the shift played by infielders who were pharmacologically innovative. As Dan Shaughnessy inartfully, crassly and typically self-righteously noted, "our cheaters were better than (the Yankees') cheaters." What Shaughnessy fails to understand is that cheating is much less of an offense when most of your competitors are cheating.

And, again, this is cheating in a form of entertainment. I adore baseball - as perhaps my favorite distraction, entertainment, and sport - but it is still a form of entertainment, not the hypocrisy of philandering religious "leaders" or the like.

Maybe I'm just numbed to these abuses. But, I prefer to think that Papi's abuse was simply not a serious competitive advantage.

I want the "steroid era" to end. I think it did once they started testing players. And I want more clarity as to what folks like Papi and others supposedly took.

Finally, I do not, in any way, in any form, in any light, accept the idea that the Red Sox championships are now diluted, that they mean less. So if the Yankees had won that year that would have been as pure as the white driven snow? I sort of doubt that.

Our cheaters are better than your cheaters and that is a championship within the league and the time period in which the championship season was contested.

More Trade Talk

2009-07-26T16:05:00.003-04:00

Adam LaRoche
Victor Martinez

Simply, the Sox should not trade for Victor Martinez. The 30 year old catcher/first baseman for Cleveland is a powerful switchhitter with good on-base skills. Since the first of June, Martinez has batted .213. I believe he's signed through this year with an option for next.

I would take Martinez if he were cheap. But I wouldn't give up much for him. At first, he's learning the position and I doubt he's a steller defender. I don't think he's a much better hitter than Adam LaRoche and would take up a spot that Lars Anderson and Aaron Bates might fill in the next 2 years.

As for catcher, Tek will be the starter next year and by the time he's done - if the Sox traded for and signed Martinez - Victor would be a 32 year old catcher. That doesn't strike me as exactly a "catcher of the future" that the Sox need.

Meanwhile, the Sox picked up Adam LaRoche who is a very good defensive first baseman and not a big step down offensively from Martinez. He has one fewer homer, and a batting average and an on base percentage about 30 points lower (and that's after a typical-for-him slow first half). I would not at all be surprised if at the end of the year LaRoche as very similar offensive numbers to Martinez and plays better defense. All that and we gave up two guys unlikely to every start a game in Boston while the Indians want a Buchholz + package.

It would be nice if the Sox could upgrade offensively, but a trade for Martinez is the type of big time trade-for-trades-sake move that the Sox have wisely steared clear of in recent years.

They are best off trying to get offense by hoping Jed Lowrie starts hitting, giving a few more at bats to Kottaras and knowing that Bay and Drew will get better soon.

*Regarding my mention of Lowrie and Kottaras. Let me point out that Lowrie was an offensive prospect when he came up. People thought he would hit but wondered about his fielding. I think he still could be a force in the line up. We've almost never seen him healthy. The reports before he came up were that he was like Pedroia only bigger, with more power, and more strike outs. As for Kottaras, I think we need to get over the Varitek-is-god idea. I think he helps behind the plate, but I don't think it would make a big difference. With Wake out the Sox should try to get Kottaras more at bats against righties against whom Tek is terrible. Kottaras, like Lowrie, earned "prospect' status because of his bat not his glove.

Tito on Leadership

2009-07-24T15:42:00.007-04:00

This is an interesting interview with Tito on Leadership. There are two parts. You can get to part 2 here.

Trade Fever

2009-07-23T16:05:00.001-04:00

The Sox are slumping, clearly. Now that they have traded for Adam LaRoche, it's like they broke the seal on a feverish panic - at least on the Globe's web site - for a major trade.

Nick Cafardo wrote that the Sox got LaRoche and are struggling so they clearly are going for Roy Halladay. The problem with this lacking logic is that getting LaRoche has nothing to do with getting Halladay.

Halladay is very possibly the best pitcher in the game today but he's 32 years old. I would never trade for him except that he's under contract for next year as well.

The other issue here is the nature of the Sox recent struggles. It's offensive - and offensive. The Halladay magic pill would be a nice one to take in a lot of ways, but it won't help Jason Bay snap out of it. The problem with the Sox is that last night they had two batters (Youk and Peddy) who could hit.

The pitching will be fine. The bullpen is great. The starters all lost their rythm coming out of the all star break and should be better this time around the rotation. Beckett and Lester are elite; Penny will be fine I think back on regular rest; Wake will come back strong (I don't think he's really hurt badly. I think they wanted to rest him and figure out what they have this year in young Buchholz); and Smoltz... I haven't given up yet.

The Sox need Bay, Papi and Drew to hit something hard. They need Ellsbury, Lowrie, LaRoche/Lowell and Tek to be better than easy outs. Then they'll win again. I also wouldn't mind if they could throw out a stealing baserunner.

Bates Alive

2009-07-13T17:52:00.007-04:00

When Mike Lowell was injured, he was replaced by Jeff Bailey, who hurt himself too, and the Sox needed a righthanded corner infielder to platoon with (an also-hobbling) Mark Kotsay. They turned to rookie Aaron Bates.

Bates is 6'4" and 25 years old. He dominated single A Lancaster in 2007 but had stalled at AA Portland since arriving their in '07. That is until this year when he eliminated a big leg kick and started kicking ass at Portland. He was called up to Pawtucket from there and eventually Boston for a week which included 3 starts.

While I think anyone had to be impressed by his game yesterday, hitting a ball down each line and a ball off the top of the centerfield wall in Fenway, what is most telling about his chances for getting another call-up this season is that Tito seems to like him defensively. That might mean we'll see him again.

Twice this week, Tito ran for Kotsay late in the game. Makes sense because Kotsay is a bit banged up in the legs. But, Tito has a ton of confidence in Kotsay (somewhat more than is warranted in this pseudo-scribe's opinion) and he would not have pulled Kotsay in close games if he weren't very confident in Bates' ability to handle the bag.

For a big kid with the power potential that Bates has, it's a good sign that he's appreciated by the big league manager for his defense and athletecism. To me, if he doesn't pan out offensively in the next couple years, I think he could have a good career as a defensive firstbaseman. I've often wondered why teams play someone like Doug Manceivitzyxrtfz who is great in the field and gets a hit bi-annually, when they could play someone almost as good defensively but who might actually surprise folks with their bat (e.g. Bates if he's 28 and hasn't earned an every day spot or, say, Carlos Pena when he was with the Sox a few years ago - you know, the guy who leads the league in homers and bats clean-up for the defending A.L. champs while winning a gold glove at first, I'm sure glad we signed Eric Hinske that off-season instead of keeping Pena to back up a then-unproven Youk (it was only 2007 when no one knew if Youk could hit with any real pop).).

Bates has a decent shot of playing an important role on this team this year. Don't you think that an athletic first baseman who can play the outfield if needed might beat out Jeff Bailey (not athletic, but a good hitter) if the Sox are looking for a righthanded back-up first basemen for the postseason? I'm just saying he might be back and that might matter.

The Royals

2009-07-10T20:14:00.004-04:00

I just wanted to mention before everyone gets up in arms about the Sox losing a game or games to the Royals, that the Royals aren't terrible. If they had any offense, they might even be good. This is a team that is just a few bats and another arm from being the Mariners. Ok, not a ringing endorsement, but anyway.

The Royals have a true ace (Greinke) and two developing young starters (Hochever and Bannister) and a ssolid veteran (Gil Meche) in their rotation. The bullpen is potentially very good with a wonderful closer (Soria) and some veteran bullpen arms (Cruz, Mahay, Farnsworth and Wright).

The problem is they cannot hit and they can't buy break with their prospects. They invest a lot in top draft pics, but don't get much. So far, great prospects like Mark Teahan, Alex Gordon, and John Buck have been good at best. They've had two breakout rookie shortstops (ROY Angel Berroa and Aviles last year) who have inexplicably fallen apart after year one (Note: I don't actually know what's up with Aviles, maybe his tommy john injury killed his hitting, but that's not normal for not pitchers).

Right now they need Gordon to become the star he should be. They need a veteran professional hitter to solidify the offense. And they need a few other prospects to blow up. It's sad when David Dejesus is your most successful everyday player developed. He's good, but that's it. He'd be the 4th outfielder on the Sox.

I guess I'm writing this only because I am always fascinated by low budget teams. I wish them the best.

Give it a break

2009-07-07T18:08:00.000-04:00

I really don't like articles like this one by Mazz. He muses about whether or not the Sox are fading. Now, he's not saying they are, but by bringing it up he pretty much is. Just ask Fox News if that works ("Is the president going to put Gitmo detainees in your backyard? Let's ask an expert from the Heritage Foundation...").

The Sox might fade. This might be the beginning. But losing 2 of 3 to Seattle and one game to Oakland is not a sign that they are fading.

Seattle is pretty good. They were my darkhorse pick to make the playoffs in the A.L. They have pitching and defense. With just a little offense they can win some games. The games we lost to the M's were 1) an extra innings game and 2) a game we win if Pedroia were 5'10" (missed a pop-up). I hate this doomsday sh-t.

Remember the begining of the season, how the Sox were never going to hit? That panned out. Great job guys.

The Sox aren't hitting because:

They faced Felix Hernandez.
Jason Bay is in a slump, which is normal for a human.
Mike Lowell is out - and even his replacements (Bailey and Kotsay) have been replaced (rookie Aaron Bates is there for now until Kotsay is feeling better)
Pedroia was dosed with cold water by putting him at leadoff.
And they have a good-not-great offense that includes a .280 hitting shortstop with ok power and a .240 hitting catching with surprising pop.

My point is only that this too will pass. Breath deeply.

Caught in a Rundown

2009-06-11T13:16:00.001-04:00

With tonight's start by Brad Penny, I thought I'd weigh in on the upcoming Penny-Smoltz-Buchholz situation. Basically, Smoltz will be major league ready on Tuesday (Penny's next go around in the rotation) and we're not paying him to strike out Toledo Mud Hens. Buchholz has looked like every bit of a budding ace this year and waits patiently. The best case is the Penny is traded (he can't be traded until next week because he was signed as a free agent), Smoltz steps in, and Buchholz gets whatever spot starts are surely to come up the rest of the season. The problem is that desperation isn't good for trade negotiations. My guess is the Sox will send Penny to any team that will pay his salary. Don't expect a starting shortstop in return.
Pedroia is batting .219 with a .329 on base percentage since moving to the lead off spot. I vote for the return of Ellsbury (.299/.332 from leadoff) to the top of the order. Either he or JD Drew.
Anyone else remember Bobby Scales impressing everyone (me and one other person i know) in the outfield in spring training a few years ago? Journeyman infielder just not good enough to make the majors, but boy does he play hard. Well, he's a Cub now and seeming to play pretty well.
Speaking of the minors, firstbasemen, corner outfield prospect Aaron Bates was just called up to Pawtucket. He had sort of stalled in Portland the last few years. But this year, with some slight adjustments, he appears to be a real prospect again. This might make for some healthy firstbaseman of the future competition with The Lars.
I think Dice-K is close. He's been wild and unhittable. He has pounded the strike zone and been pounded. His stuff is very good and I think he can find the happy medium soon and be very good again.
ESPN color guy Rick Sutcliffe was a good pitcher, but he is a horrible commentator. It pained me last night to listen to him. He said Pedroia was struggling because he's swinging too hard. Aparently he's never seen Peddy swing before. He thought the Yankees would pitch around Youk to face Bay with the bases loaded because Bay had struck out three times. He failed to mention the Bay had an RBI single also and is leading the league in RBI's - Dave O'Brien did mention those. My point is the Sut stinks.
Call me a sucker, but I'm happy that the Sox drafted Yaz's grandson.
Am I the only Sox fan who didn't know that Jason Varitek and NESN sideline reporter Heidi Watney are an item?
The return on Jed Lowrie in a week or two might spell the unceremonious end to Julio Lugo as a Red Sox. I see no reason the Sox would not dump him. He's going to cry about sitting at the end of the bench, if he can't run because of his leg he is pretty much worthless, and Nick Green has shown he's more than capable of serving as the utility guy.

The Papi Problem

2009-06-01T22:00:00.007-04:00

The Sox obviously face a serious dilemma in the person designated hitter David Ortiz.

My feeling is that Ortiz is still physically and mentally capable of hitting well - not great, but well. That said, it might still be time for Papi. He might be done.

The Sox should lower Papi in the order (done) and let him play most every day in June. If by the end of the month - or before if the Sox free fall because of an anemic offense - Papi is still not hitting, then the Sox need to give one month to the internal-organizational solutions available.

To be fair to a possible replacement, the Sox should let him (or them) have a month before the July trading deadline to establish themselves. If that does not work, the Sox should look for a trade of some value (best option for me would be trading a high-value prospect for one and a half years of Adam Dunn).

As for Papi, we all obviously love the guy and want him to succeed. And I for one still think he can. But I'm not sure I think he will.

Watching his swing, Papi seems to be letting the fastball get too deep on him. He's not out front, jumping on fastballs. Also, his follow through extension is not high and pronounced like the old days. That said, he's bringing his hands in and through the zone well recently, hitting a few fastballs very hard against the Jays and Tigers.

If by July 1, Papi is not hitting at all still, they go to plan B. And by the way, he will simply not get hot enough to raise his numbers to anything respectable after going more than 200 at bats as simply terrible. That is, at the end of the month we should look at the one month split. If that's better than the alternatives, keep him in the line up batting 6th or 7th.

If he flounders through June, Papi should be put on the DL somehow. They should give one month to Chris Carter. He can hit and can't field. He's a lefty and, against lefties, this scenario would give DH at bats to Rocco B. and Lowell.

After that July expariment, as we close in on the trading deadline, the Sox will have three choices: keep Carter (or Bailey) as the DH, bring back Papi for one last shot, or look at a major trade.

Let's hope Papi can come around. I'm still saying there's a chance.

P.S. Mark Kotsay, a good back-up outfielder and first baseman, and a lucky man, is a terrible option here, despite what Toni Massarotti seems to think. First, he has no pop and doesn't even hit for that good an average. Second, when you DH him you lose him as a back-up outfield option and rely on Rocco, which we have quickly learned is sadly not a reliable reliance (though in this hypothetical, Papi's roster spot would presumably be filled by another outfielder). I prefer Papi right now over Kotsay as DH.

The Real Jason Bay

2009-05-01T16:48:00.002-04:00

They say Jason Bay is "boring". He wakes up every morning and puts on his pants just like the rest of us, except the way Canadians do it (don't ask). He goes to work where he hits 30 homers, bats .280, steals some bases without ever getting caught, plays great defense with no arm, and quietly dominates.

But he's not exciting, right? He doesn't have the flare of Manny, correct? He is not intimidating enough to bat clean-up, or even in front of J.D. Drew, yeah?

Wrong.

I met Jason Bay in Florida a few years ago. He was water skiing through the Everglades on the backs of two crocodiles he had wrestled into submission. He was going about 70 miles an hour behind an air boat. He was only using one hand because the other one was used to chug beers.

The Jason Bay I know stole a car from a monestary, gave it back, then stole it again because he was bored.

The Jason Bay I know climbed Everest in flip-flops. He showed the sherpa the best way up and let the little Nepalese guide ride on his back as they slid back down to the camp from the summit.

The Jason Bay I know was clinically dead for 3 weeks as a way of resting after a crazy weekend in Vegas.

I wish you knew Jason Bay like I know Jason Bay. If you did, you'd realize he's a star - and a heck of a fire-eater.

In the media

2009-04-24T08:58:00.005-04:00

For years now, I've garnered my Sox news online almost exclusively from the Globe. I've tried to read some on the blogosphere and check out the Herald's site sometimes as well. But it always comes back to the Globe.

I've noticed now and then that the Globe references reporting by the Providence Journal and thought, when I was bored one day recently, I'd check out their site. What I've found as I've returned now and then is that, in terms of simple news gathering, it seems to be the best thing out there. I share this because I'm surprised. I thought with the Globe's stable of reporters and use of blogs to give updates throughout the day, they were keeping me up to date, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

Case in point: Thursday afternoon, the Globe blog posted that Chris Carter was being sent down. Nothing remarkable about that. I check rather regularly so I'll estimate that they posted it around 3pm yesterday (the linked-to version of the post in question was updated with the intel that Carter was being replaces by Van Every so the hour listed is 9pm but I saw it there well before that). Seems reasonable.

But then I check the ProJo site. They had the same story, only they had posted it about 16 hours earlier at 11pm on Wednesday night.

Ok, I don't mind a little scoopage. But I'm very disappointed that a major league roster move by the Sox was clearly taking place and the Globe took half a day to put it up on their blog. Sort of misses the point of blogs.

Get Carter

2009-04-22T12:05:00.003-04:00

Why do the Sox have Chris Carter on their roster at all? I like the lefthanded, firstbasemen/(bad) outfielder, hitting machine we got for Wily Mo Pena (who, by the way, was picked up by the Mets after the Nats (yes, the Nats of 100 loses and too many mediocre outfielders)).

That said, if the Sox are not starting him at first base in game one of the double header today, there is not point in having him on the roster. The Twins are starting a righty in game one and a lefty in game two. Why not start Carter at first and move Youk to third for game one, giving Lowell one game off?

Two possible explainations that I don't agree with: game two might get rained out so playing Lowell in game one guarentees that you play him today. Or, playing Youkilis at third in game one and first in game two would be too hard for the Greek God of the Corners.

I don't agree. Basically, you should not carry someone on your ML roster if you won't use him in obvious circumstances, unless you are the Padres and only have 15 players good enought to be on a 25 man roster.

Update 4/23/09
The Sox sent Carter to Pawtucket today. No word yet who will replace him on the major league roster. My guess is that they call up John Van Every. He's a left-handed hitting centerfielder with a good arm who's already on the 40 man roster (unlike fellow older Pawtucket outfielder Chip Ambres who is not a real centerfielder and is not on the 40 man so would require the Sox to waive someone). My only hesitation with Van Every - who played a couple games for the Boston team last year - is that he's fresh off an injury.

Fie to you WBC!!!

2009-04-17T12:03:00.005-04:00

Ok, I spoke too soon. We are short a pitcher (and maybe two, if Becket's suspension is upheld). What to do now?

The Sox lost Dice-K to WBC desease for a few weeks at least. He'll probably miss two or three starts. Since he's generally healthy and pitched so well in his second, Faustian, MVP-winning World Baseball "Classic", I feel good about him coming back strong. But this is when that 9 man starting staff comes into play.

I propose that the Sox hand over the Dice-K rotation slot to the 9th man on that list: Michael Bowden.

This comes from a process of elimination. It goes this way. First choice: John Smoltz is unavailable because 50 year old pitchers don't pitch until June. Second choice: Clay Buchholz has a slight hamstring injury. Why risk it for 2 emergency starts?

This brings us to Justin Masterson, the consensus shoo-in to fill the Dice Man's spot. The logic goes this way: Masterson pitched wonderfully for 4 innings when Matsuzaka left his last start, he's already on the roster, and we trust him as a Nation.

The problem is that this move leaves you with two question marks on your 12 man staff. Masterson would not be available late in games, leaving that job to Saito and Ramirez (the new, sane one) to fill the righty set up role. That's something we all hope - and expect? - them to do by the end of the summer, but right now I'm just not confident in them. And it's my confidence that matters here, clearly.

Masterson is also a question mark in the rotation. I think he can be a good starter, but when he starts he can't throw as hard and the fact that he really only has two pitches is exposed.

The best thing is to leave Masterson where he is in the pen - though perhaps doing one spot start if Beckett is suspended - and calling up Bowden to replace Hunter Jones on the roster once the starter is needed (Monday's 11am Patriot's Day game against B-more).

Bowden gives us as good a chance to win as Masterson would starting. Meanwhile, Masterson being available in the pen gives us a better chance to win every game than does Masterson starting and Big Hunter (or Daniel Bard) in the pen.

Where am I?

2009-04-14T21:11:00.005-04:00

Someone told me that the Sox have won only two games in the first seven, I called that person a liar and spat on their floor. My mom shouldn't talk such foolishness.

I am truly sorry to get a late start on the season, folks. My fan(s) are (is) disappointed and rightfully so(s).

I am not worried about the Sox. Yet. The fundamentals remain strong: they have great starting pitching, great bullpen, very good defense, and above average offense. The worry comes from early under-performing by key players and the losing that follows, especially when you play maybe the best two teams in the league. The fact is that the Sox barely lost two series to two teams that would be reasonable picks to face each other in the ALCS. Then the A's piled on a bit. That game must remind us that baseball is not a game that is meant to be viewed through a one-game lens.

The Sox greatest worry is Jon Lester. He looked so strong the first few innings of his first start, but he has been hit hard ever since. While I've seen enough baseball to know that balls do indeed fall based on luck, bad hitters break bats against good pitchers' good pitches and end up heroes, I also know that, if I weren't so happily biased, I'd know that Lester is in a precarious position. He was an ace last year, but there are a few legitimate questions and worries remaining. While I think that modern baseball orthodoxy's proclamation that anything more than a 25-30 inning jump in a season for a young pitcher is arbitrary and far too concrete, I do worry about Lester going from zero to 60 so quickly. Additionally, I wonder why we think we're immune to flashing in the pan. Why wouldn't Lester be dominant for a year then drift off. Why is he better than Justin Verlander? Honestly, all that said, I still believe in the kid. But I have to wonder about him.

Ok, I've already written too much and, guess what time it is, time to get to the point. Why the Sox will be alright:

Smoltz and Buch - let's say that Lester does break down, that Wake's back really gives out, what then? Well, the Sox run a starting staff nine deep with pitchers that would likely start for any other team. We have John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Justin Masterson all perfectly adequate starters.
Papi and Peddy - The Sox have a bunch of players - Pedroia, Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew - who, if healthy, are guarenteed to produce at, at worst, a better than average clip. None of them have shown up.
Before last night against the A's, the Sox had only lost one game by more than a couple runs. They had played the Angels and the Rays, both of which most people expect to be powerhouses in the league, only rivaled by the Sox and Yanks. My point is basically that we're only EIGHT GAMES INTO THE SEASON.
Brad Penny - the guy looked like a horse again. He is a big time winner and had the same stuff he did a few years ago a last week. There is a very good chance that he will be a very very strong starter this year. I have no doubt that he was a better deal than A.J. Burnett with the Yanks - they have about the same chance of dominating (and of failing) and we're paying much less and for only a year. For Burnett, on the fifth year of his deal, I wouldn't be surprised if his arm is held together with staples and duct tape.

Nostrawally

2009-03-19T08:30:00.004-04:00

Yesterday, the Sox released catcher Josh Bard and decided to ostensibly hand the job of catcher-to-Wake to George Kottaras. At the risk of being "that guy", I must say that I called this one months ago and even asked the folks at the Globe why they weren't talking about this. They didn't respond - and I wasn't able to post my nah nah nah comment on their blogs yesterday either. So let me revel in my righteousness here.

On Nov. 3 of last year, I wrote this to Nick Carado, linking to this post of mine:

Nick - has anyone talked about whether the Sox could re-sign Jason Varitek and ask him to take on knuckleball duties next year? This would allow a young catcher to get his feet wet on a team with Tek, while not having to catch Wake (a la Josh Bard).

Then, on Feb. 3 - I guess I feel righteous indignation on the third day of the month - I wrote Tony Massaroti an email entitled "Bard vs. Kottaras":

Hey Mazz,

My question/comment is about the back up catcher position. I don't understand why you and Cafardo imply that Josh Bard has the leg up. Assuming the Sox don't complete a trade, it seems that Bard is the worst choice among Brown, Kottaras and Wagner. With Varitek back in the fold, why do we want Bard - a thirty year old who can't hit lefty, is average defensively and obviously is not popular with Sox fans - as Tek's understudy? That would be another year of not moving forward in developing a replacement for Tek. It seems the favorite would be Kottaras who is out of options, bats lefty with power and must have some skills since we traded David Wells for him. Wagner and Brown are defensive studs who seem to have Kevin Cash-like bats, but at least they're 24 and 26 years old respectively - and don't cost millions like Bard. There hasn't been much reporting on your site about what the scouts say about these three, which seems to presuppose either a trade or Bard. What's the deal here?

Thanks,
Will

P.S. Any talk about having Varitek catch Wake then splitting the other 4 starters either by assignment or by lefty/righty platoon?

While my self-righteousness is coursing through me, I thought I would nonetheless see if I had my facts straight, that the Globe had in fact dropped the ball on this. I found a good article I hadn't seen from Feb. 15 by Amalie Benjamin covering the backup catcher competition - where she does say Bard is the favorite. Tito told her: "Josh Bard is certainly the veteran of the group. We have some history with him. We know him. You have Dusty and George that have been together in Triple A. We know George is out of options. We definitely need to take this six, seven weeks that we have down here, and try to get a better understanding of where we are with all three of those guys."

Lastly, a few things about Kottaras I haven't seen elsewhere: he grew up play fastpitch softball in Canada rather than baseball, which could help him wield the big knuckleball mit. He was traded to the Sox for David Wells so he must have been considered a decent prospect. He has power and a good eye. SoxProspect.com points out: "while his arm is strong, his throwing motion still lacks quickness, and he only throws about 20% of runners out. Good at blocking balls in the dirt, and gets to bunts and fly balls well. "

The point is that this is the best move for the Sox team this year, in the future, for the fans (who will never support Bard), and for the team finances. I'm just not sure why this wasn't more obvious once 'Tek was signed.

Outside the Box

2009-03-13T17:35:00.000-04:00

I really need to get back into writing regularly, because when I don't it results in these sort of brain dump posts. I thought I'd throw out a few ideas that I've been mulling over that I haven't read much about:

Youkilis should bat third and Papi should bat cleanup. Generally, you put your best hitter batting third and, after Peddy, Youk is that hitter. Also, Youk is generally more patient at the plate than Ortiz and ideally a first inning with a mature Ellsbury who has learned to take pitches, Pedroia, and Youk would be very tough on a pitcher even if it goes 1-2-3. This lineup would also have a nice rightly lefty rhythm of ellsbury (L), pedroia (r), youk (r), papi (L), bay (r), drew (l), lowell, (r), tek (s), lowrie (s).
Josh Bard should be released after spring training. He seems worthless. I'd rather have a young guy learning from Tek, even if that young guy doesn't pan out long term at least there would be potential for some gain for the club after this year.
Buchholz should be traded if he's not going to get a shot at the rotation this year. I think he'll either be in the rotation in August, or he'll be starting for another team after we trade him at the deadline. I think he could be a great pitcher but his strength as a starter is also his roadblock to easing his way onto the Sox roster: he is a 4 pitch pitcher without the one or two dominant pitches that makes for a good reliever. If he faulters as a starter he'll still have a decent career, but unlike a Papelbon or Bowden, he doesn't have the right kind of stuff to translate well into late inning pen work.
The Sox biggest pick ups in the second half of the year will be a healthy John Smoltz and a young wild Daniel Bard who'll be called up and throw 100 mph in the Fens.
If the Sox can, they will trade Lugo soon - since he's shown he still has skills - and start Lowrie and use Nick Green as the utility guy.
I hope the Sox keep Jeff Bailey - or Chris Carter - as the 5th outfielder and backup firstbaseman until Kotsay returns. Like the Josh Bard theory, I see no value in Brad Wilkerson. There's a tendancy to overvalue experience and a known commodity. Unlike Wilkerson, Bailey and Carter could be valuable insurance if something happened to Youk or Papi. They are both ready to produce in the bigs, as long as they don't have to carry a glove too often.

A Note of Offensive Optomism

2009-02-09T17:25:00.000-05:00

From what I have been reading about the Sox this coming season, the pitching staff is fantastic and the offense is potentially bad. While I think that diagnosis is potentially accurate, I wanted to poit out some optimistic points where others see failure.

Jacoby Ellsbury was a rookie last year. He can run like no one on the Sox since Otis Nixon, he has that surprising power when he turns on a heater, he is a much-improved outfielder who might be a gold glover in a year or two, and he plays the game very hard and intelligently. Yet, there seems to be a feeling that he is a failure waiting to happen. I feel strongly that he will be a good leadoff man at worst. If he learns Damon-esque plate discipline, he's a star.
Ortiz and Lowell are not yet dead. I don't expect either to hit more than 30 homers or knock in much more than 100 teammates, but they are both great hitters and Lowell is a great fielder. I expect them both to be productive. I admit that I fear that Ortiz is Mo Vaughn in waiting. However, Mo did have two more productive years after leaving the Sox for the Angels, which was when he was one year older than Papi is now. I also think Papi is a better athlete than Mo ever was. He has a couple good years in him yet.
Oh my god, we don't have Manny anymore. Get over it. The problem with the belly aching here is that it it underestimates Jason Bay. The man is in the prime of his career and is likely to put up Manny-lite numbers this year while playing much better in the field, running much better on the basepaths, and not going inside the green monster during games. He is not Manny but he will be very productive.

Deals and No Deals

2009-01-15T16:41:00.008-05:00

The Sox have been pretty busy over the last few weeks. I thought I'd run through my thoughts on these acquisitions and non-acquisitions. However, I'm not going to get further into the morass of Texiera and other big name misses, much.

Rocco Baldelli Obviously, there's the sentimental, local-boy-made-good reason as to why I love having Rocco in the fold. There's also the rather irrational hope that he might be able to manage his illness in such a way that he can be the 5-tool force that he obviously has the talent to be. But in the end, this is a cheap deal for a guy who could be a very valuable right handed bat, pinch runner, defensive replacement, let alone inspiration. You can't help but love this signing. It's destiny.

Mark Kotsay He's the perfect complement to two fragile players: Baldelli and Mike Lowell. He can play centerfield and showed he can play first if Lowell breaks down and Youkilis needs to go back to first. What's interesting about Kotsay is that it always seems like he can hit, but he's really not much of a hitter. He has very limited power, speed, and on base ability. But, he makes inept hitting look good somehow. Regardless, you're not going to find a much better back up. If Lowell (or Youk) really went down, he'd also help allieviate pressure on a young guy like Lars Anderson if Theo decides to give him a cup o coffee this season.

Josh Bard This signing is almost as emotionally tinged as Rocco, but for the opposite reason. Bard looked so bad catching Wake years ago that it's the main reason Sox fans are convinced that no one but Miribelli... or Kevin Cash... can every catch the flutterball. Bard could not hit last yea r at all so the value in signing a 30 year old catcher who has questionable offensive and defensive skills and who your rabid fan base (mostly irrationally) hates seems to escape me. There must have been someone else who could fit this role. His deal is non-guaranteed so maybe that's why it works for him.

Ramon Ramirez Don't know about you, but I keep forgetting about this guy. We traded Coco Crisp for him. Pitching coach John Farrell told Tony Massarotti "The guy who I think could really help us is Ramirez." This is the top candidate to take on the Mike Timlin role which was left vacant much of last year until Justin Masterson took over late in the season.

Alex Cora See post below. I'll miss the guy. He's a captain and a coach on the field, as reliable a hitter as you'll get in a backup middle infielder, and he can field two positions really well.

John Smoltz I love this signing. You get a guy who's really never had a bad year (when healthy which is usually) and could either give you 10-20 strong starts, or even close if something happened to Pap. And he's a classy version of Schilling for the young guns to learn from.

Brad Penny It's just like signing A.J. Burnett without having to rely on him for four years. They are both hugely talented power arms who have won championships (on the Marlins team in the same rotation as Beckett) and who might well give you only 3 healthy starts. I love the idea the Penny, Smoltz, Buchholz and Bowden are all fighting for the fifth starter roll. That's great depth. Penny could really surprise with a big year. He was appearantly throwing 97 mph by the end of last year, is only 30 years old, and had 16 wins both two and three years ago.

Takashi Saito Saito is a veteran Japanese closer who will be 39 this year but has been a very good closer for the last few years for the Dodgers when healthy. His strike out numbers are great (245 strikeouts, 52 walks in 189 major league innings). Another great signing with little risk.

Young Catcher X I am getting annoyed at the Globe's lack of analysis into Miguel Montero. He's the catcher the Sox are apparently thinking of trading someone like Bowden to the Diamondbacks for. What I've read says he might be able to hit, but there is no analysis of his throwing, let alone game calling. For all the talk of the young guys in our sites (Montero, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Taylor Teagarden) there isn't much analysis of what they might bring. Also, what kind of player would George Kottaras be if he ends up platooning with Bard as our only two catchers. He has some good power from the left side and, since he's a former Canadian fast pitch softballer, maybe he can weild the big Wakefield mit well.

Youk & Peddy The Sox just resigned Youk to a 4 year, $40 million deal. They already signed Pedroia for 6 years, $40.5 million. Youk is 30 years old and "finished third in the MVP voting and won the Hank Aaron Award as the league's top offensive performer" (Boston Globe). It's great to have our two top young major league bats (and gloves) secured for the next few years. Oddly, it wouldn't be unlikely that Youk might not have too many more years after this contract. Odd when I feel like he's still a kid.

Say it ain't so Alex!

2009-01-14T17:56:00.002-05:00

I owe you guys a post and I have a good one brewing. But in the meantime, here's some sad news: the Sox lost Alex Cora today. In favor of Julio Lugo. This is yet another crime perpetrated by the stupid signing of Lugo to an 18-year, $300 billion contract ten years ago - I "report" contract terms only in terms of how they feel to me emotionally (surprisingly, I have not has any bites from potential clients in my naicient baseball agent profession).

The story from ESPN on Cora going to the Mets is here.

A Win-Win

2008-12-13T11:17:00.003-05:00

With both C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett seemingly in the loving embrace of the Steinbrenners, one thing has become clear: the Yankees fear full names. I always knew J.D. Drew wasn't a Red Sox at heart.

The signing of these two marquee starters is really a rare moment in that it's both good for the Yankees and the Red Sox. We knew that the Yankees would spend enough money to retool their team and be right back in the thick of the pennant race next year. I never believed the idea that distaste for the Yankees organization or something evil in the Bronx air would truely keep marquee free agents from signing with the Empire. They are willing to over pay and, more relevent to this situation, over extend in terms of contract length. Who signs an oft-injured 31-year old righty power pitcher for 5 years? Burnett's arm may have to be stappled on by the time he throws his last pitch in the House that Ruth Had Nothing to Do With. He doesn't strike me as Mussina-esque, succeeding on smarts and guile (what is that??) after your "talent" has fadded. And C.C. signed for 7 years? He'll be 35-years old and 340 lbs by the point his contract expires. The Yankees can afford to waist money on those likely-lost years.

This is good news for the Sox too, as Chad Finn blogged recently on one of the Globe's blogs. The reason is that the Yankees will be much less motivated to go for Teixeira now that they have bolstered they rotation this much. The Sox don't need these pitchers and they do really need a new middle-of-the-lineup bat like Tex's. Yes, it would have been best if the Sox got their guy and the Yankees signed Bernie Williams and a can of beans, but then again, this is reality... or sports.

If the Sox don't get Tex now, this is bad. But, their best chance to get their boy has come to fruition. Ideally, they bring in Tex, we cry over Lowell leaving, Youk goes to third, Papi has another productive year or two before he goes the way of Mo Vaugn, then he's replaced by Lars Anderson. We'll see. But the chances did just get better.

Oh Captain My Captain

2008-11-07T13:40:00.002-05:00

I am concerned with the fact that the Sox are quite possibly going to play next year without Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, and Alex Cora. These three guys are the veteran leaders on and off the field. I'm not sure how vocal Cora is, but he's an obvious coach-in-waiting not to mention a great bench player.

Youk, Pedroia, Bay, Ellsbury, Drew... none of these guys are ready and able to be a on-the-field leader. I think for this reason alone, the Sox need to keep Lowell or 'Tek.

The Catcher Dilemna

2008-11-03T17:10:00.001-05:00

Obviously, the biggest issue this off season is what to do about catcher with Varitek aging, not hitting, and Borasing his way to the biggest contract available. Here is a part of the equation that has been raised much: the greatest roadblock to the advancement of any young catcher in the Sox system is Tim Wakefield.

First, let's dispense with the pleasantries. Wake is a great pitcher and should join Pesky as the second non-Hall of Famer to have his number retired in Fenway.

Yet, as vividly and painfully displayed by the Josh Bard experiment, Wake can singleknuckledly derail an otherwise-promising Sox catching prospect when said prospect is forced into duty as Wake's personal catcher.

The Catch 22 for the Sox is that no catcher in the system is ready to take over for 'Tek because of a moderate talent pool and not enough high level - let alone major league - experience. So the Sox keep playing 'Tek and only try young guys as the back up (i.e. Wake's catcher). They then fail in part because they are focused on not embarrassing themselves catching the wobbler.

Here is an option that no one seems to be raising: Varitek should become Wake's catcher and split the catching of the other four, conventional starters with a young catcher like Kottaras or Mark Wagner, or someone they could trade for like Saltalamacchia. For example, let 'Tek catch Wake, Lester and Bowden. Let Kottaras catch Becket and Dice-K.

This would avoid having a young catcher distracted and discouraged by the Wake challenge, allow us to keep Wake and 'Tek, let 'Tek coach a young catcher and the young pitchers, let us start 'Tek more against lefties than righties (Kottaras is a lefty with pop), and stop the never-ending cycle of the Sox needing a Kevin Cash on the roster. Cash has been great, but he can't hit and is by no means the future behind the plate.

Here are some of the problems with this, and my answers:

'Tek has shown he can't catch Wake. I don't believe for a second that if 'Tek went into camp planning to catch Wake, that he couldn't do what Cash and Miribelli (and Hatteburg and Creighton Gubanich and some guy named Varitek...) have done for 14 years.
None of the prospects are good enough. Then why do we pay them? Honestly, we're way too wedded to the idea that 'Tek is the only guy who can call a game and that we need a Wake specialist.
'Tek won't come back to platoon and take on Wake. At 35, for $8 million for two years maybe, by learning from Damon that your viability as a post-playing career spokesperson in Boston depends on either not leaving or leaving on good terms, 'Tek should consider this.

The Decider

2008-10-20T15:58:00.004-04:00

Here is some reporting on what I thought was the single most important play of the game, and thus the series, and thus the season. From the Hartford Courant:

J.D. Drew felt cheated. Batting with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning of a 3-1 game, Drew believed he had checked his swing on a 1-and-2 pitch from rookie David Price. But plate umpire Brian Gorman, without asking for help, said Drew did not hold up the swing and called him out, ending the Red Sox's last best chance to tie or take the lead. "I saw the ball pretty well," Drew said. "I didn't think I went around. That being said, it felt like the bat was taken away from me. I felt like a had a good chance in that at-bat. He got ahead of me quick, but if I check my swing, ask the third base umpire. The home plate umpire calls balls and strikes. Let the other guy make up his mind. That's the only thing that hurt me."

From the Boston Globe:

"I don't think I went around," Drew said. "I think that at-bat was kind of taken away from me. If I check my swing, ask the third-base umpire. Worry about balls and strikes and let the third-base umpire do his job. That's the only thing that hurt me. I thought that I held up." But third-base umpire Tim McClelland was not consulted, and the teams were on to the bottom of the inning. That was when, finally, Jon Lester was removed (quietly) from the game in which he'd done just enough to lose.

This was criminal negligence. Gorman did not do his job by not checking with McClelland.

Prediction

2008-10-10T15:09:00.004-04:00

The Red Sox will only win this series if they win a game late, taking advantage of the fact that the Rays are without a clear closer since Troy Percival went down for the year.

Overall the teams are very even. The Sox have an advantage with Lester, Beckett and Dice-K over Sheilds, Kazmir and Garza; but it's very close and probably about even when you factor in Wake against Sorranstine.

The bullpens are both good. Both teams have five guys they have comfidence in. Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell are really nasty and very similar to Delcarman and Oki. Trever Miller is the Javy Lopez lefty specialist. We know Chad Bradford already. The wild card could be David Price - the number one overall pick a year ago is a dominant young lefty starter. I'd hate to see him get comfident out there in one inning bursts. The advantage the Sox have is that we have a dominant closer and they have a functional Dan Wheeler. We need to beat their late inning guys once. Tony Massarotti wrote this:

Once Percival was injured (again) late in the year -- he is not the ALCS roster -- Wheeler moved into the closer’s role and the Tampa bullpen shortened some. This left a small hole in the middle of the game -- the fifth or sixth innings -- depending on the performance of Rays starters and other relievers, like Edwin Jackson (a starter during the regular season) or phenom David Price.

Also, the Sox cannot beat this team without major contributions from Papi and Pedroia.

The Rays can hit, run, field and pitch. They are healthy and deep. This is a very good team and I don't see a way the Sox win in less than 7.

Master... ful?

2008-10-08T18:32:00.005-04:00

I just don't understand why Tito has decided seemingly arbitrarily that Masterson is his main squeeze. Masterson is a very good rookie and I am confident that he will succeed most of the time.

As a reliever, Masterson's numbers are very good. Yet, it seems that Tito is going with his gut on this guy and that he just doesn't trust my man mini-Manny. Delcarman, post-All Star break (which I think is a fair apples-to-apples comparison to Masterson as a reliever), had very good numbers, and that doesn't even account for some things that my traditional-baseball-loving mind values such as post season experience and bouncing back from defeat.

Masterson as reliever: 2.36 ERA, 27 games, 34 innings, 29 strikeouts, 12 walks, 2 homers, .231 batting average against, and 1.18 walks and hits per innings pitched.
Delcarman in second half: 1.82 ERA, 30 games, 34 innings, 33 strikeouts, 13 walks, 2 homers, .161 BAA, and 0.94 WHIP.

I simply see no reason for this change aside from something in Tito's gut (which I obviously do not share). And I had thought Bill James had beaten the gut out of Yawkey Way. Delcarman has clearly pitched better than Masterson by the numbers and he was with us last year (though not pitching well by giving up 4 runs on 2 homers, in 4.1 innings).

That said, Masterson is a very good ground ball pitcher (1.99 GB/FB as opposed to 1.47 for Manny (for the entire season)). He also is nasty on righties with the angle at which he throws (.570 OPS for righties vs. .787 for lefties).

The Sox are best served using Delcarman as the main 8th inning guy. I don't believe in being rigid about this - using Lopez, Masterson and Oki in some combo is fine given the situation - but he's the best at it and most experienced so he should get the call more times than not.

Perhaps Delcarman's pre-All Star stats (.240 BAA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.54 ERA) has left residual uncertainty with the coaching staff. Regardless, I am glad we have the problem of which of the 5 good relieves we have should we use. Sure beats putting Chris Smith out there.

Side note: I hope that with my use of the absolutely hilarious and boundlessly clever "Masterful" joke - cause his real name is Masterson! But he's good! Get it? - this will be the end of that. Forever.

Live Blog - Game 1

2008-10-01T22:30:00.036-04:00

1st inning - I didn't like either half of it. It's a cardinal sin to lose an opportunity in the first inning to score when all it would have taken was Pedroia moving Jacoby over. By the way, can you have a worse call than the one on the ball Jacoby hit? "It's playable" Really? You don't say that unless you're sure. I also didn't like how tight the strike zone was with Lester and how he had trouble getting a strike with the curve.
2nd inning - Both pitchers looked great. I think the Sox can hit Lackey. Or, he's going to drive me batty cause they won't hit his non-dominant stuff. Lester looked very sharp in inning two.
3rd top- Tek should bunt... oops... Jacoby should run, though I'm guessing from the announcers that Napoli can throw, then again it's TBS... a friend just asked me what i thought of the steal meter: I hate it. Reminds me of Fox's godforsaken dancing robot during football games... Papi should have hit that ball for a hit. If he had we would have scored. Cause of the hit. He should have hit it hard. Sorry...
3rd bottom - Lester's ability to get the heat and the curve inside on righties is great. I'm so glad he didn't walk Chone (Chone?)... How did Buck Martinez sell the producers on the idea that he'd discuss "theory" for catchers all game? I'm bleeding out of the ears... Lester's pitch that Anderson hit made me take heed to the earlier posited idea that his problem was and sometimes still is getting inside on lefties. He sure failed at that this time.... Shit Jed!!! I now worry about the rookie thinking about that. Let it go kid, let it go... It would be funny if Lester really did throw a fastball inside "with his eyes closed"... Here's a little story 'bout a man named Jed, he gave up a run in the playoff and, and damn it... Lester still looks sharp and the bats should be able to get at least 3 or 4 off Lackey.... Next inning, less running commentary.
4th top - I'm surprised that Drew led the team in walks this year. I would have thought that Youk had walked more than the 62 times he did in 145 games (basically the same number of games he's played in each of his 3 years as a starter)... I sometimes forget how massive a strike out guy Bay is - his 136 this years is his smallest number as a major league regular.
4th bottom - Lowrie looked nice on the first two outs, taking it in the hole and throwing on the run. However, jitters are biggest on the most routine plays, the ones you wait on and have time to think about... I'm surprised the Halos haven't tested Lowell's hip yet. They've obviously flirted with it, but nothing more.
5th inning - Craig Sager's jacket. Wow... I love having real speed out there. Ellsbury bunting his way on then stealing second gave us a chance, a very good chance considering Pedroia was up. Unfortunately amounting to nada. (Wiki Moment: Sager was waiting for Henry Aaron at home plate after Aaron hit his 715th home run. Sager can be easily recognized in the fracas at home plate after the home run because of his long white overcoat that he was wearing.)
6th inning - I really don't like that Lackey is stifling the Sox lineup and that he's only thrown 65 pitches. That means that the Sox will likely face only Lackey and some combination of the Halos' big three relievers... The fourth ball to Youk was interesting because it was a breaking ball well outside. They obviously don't respect Drew right now. A move justified by Drew striking out on a pitch he should have crushed... Jason Bay!!! He mashed that ball. It's so un-Bellhorn to strike out a ton, while hitting 30 homers and 100+ RBIs.
7th inning - Lester is pitching very well and, we're going to live and die (this game and this season) on if Oki, Lopez and mostly Delcarman can get us to Paps. This game appears to be headed that direction, hopefully. With 80 pitches entering the 6th, Lester is unlikely to make it more than 7, and rather likely to not even make it that far... The TBS stat guys should tell the talking heads that that was Lowrie's first error in the majors at short. His two this year were at third... No way Lester doesn't come out for next inning. He's looking strong and sharp and has 100 pitches under his belt. Go go gadget insurance runs... What the heck just happened with Gary Matthews? It must have been the lights, but it always looks so terrible when a professional athlete looks that bad on a fly ball... I am always happy to see ex-Red Sox Darren Oliver coming in. I am not afraid of him, even lefty-on-lefty. He kept lefties to a .651 OPS, not much worse than righties. Regardless of any stats: he sucks... See. Wait. Papi needs to lay off some more pitches. He seems to be letting the pitcher dictate the at bat more than he used to. Missing Manny is a big part of that, but it's also just Papi trying to force the issue.
The Stretch: I hate TBS. They seemly sold all the musical interludes to Bon Jovi? Great. I can't wait for them to put advertisements on bats and have Jessica Simpson doing color commentary... I think that Craig Sager just called our second baseman Dustin Chernobyl. But I can't be sure... I hate ad-driven plays of the game in the seventh inning. It's only the seventh inning!
8th top - Lowell is coming up third in this inning. The Sox should pull him after that and bring in Cora, moving Lowrie to third. The Sox should also consider bringing in Oki - over Manny - because Texeira has a much lower slugging batting righty and cause I feel that Oki would fare better against Vlad. I have no evidence for the latter. But I'm right... Not that the Youk foul homer was the wrong call, but shouldn't that ump be more than 10 feet behind the 3rd base ump? What's his point if he's not back to the point where the wall juts out... Mixed metafor crime: "Jon Lester finished up like so many thoroughbreeds: with seven straight outs." I forgot that part of the life of Secretariat. You must be right Buck, you wear a headset... Stop with the Bon Jovi!!!
8th bottom - I don't like bringing in Masterson here. I don't get the rationale... What a great play by Ellsbury... Then a great play by Youk!! What an adjustment and throw. Though I was worried Lowell's hip might explode trying to make the tag... While it worked, I still do not like bringing in Masterson here: it's his post season debut, he's given up quite a few homers, it switches Texeira to the left side, and it tells Delcarman he's not the main righty set-up guy. As the bullpen by committee nightmare showed, the psychology of clear rolls for guys in the pen does matter.
9th top - What a great game for Ellsbury. On base five times, two steals, nearly a homer, a fantastic game saving defensive play... If the TBS voices are right that people are leaving the game, that's ridiculous.
9th bottom - I hope Pabst pitches better than he has of late. I pray... Yes! One down.

This ends a streak of defending World Series champs either not making the playoffs at all, or getting swept. I seriously said recently I really wanted to end that streak by at least not getting swept. Next game starts at 9:30pm on Friday night, again on TBS.

My Pick

2008-10-01T19:24:00.002-04:00

The Red Sox will win this series if, and only if, Beckett has one healthy start. The Sawx match up well pitching wise with the Angels. I don't think Lackey and Saunders are great pitchers, especially because power pitching wins in the playoffs and neither is a big armed guy. Santana is a big arm, but he walks a lot of guys and the Sox should be able to keep him to no more than 6 innings.

The angels are presumed to have the better pen, but K-Rod and Shields are hitable. When mini-Manny and Paps are one, they are unhitable.

It's going to be very hard to win these series and, frankly, if I weren't biased, I'd probably call it 3-2 the other way. But, I am biased.

The Sox will win 3-2.

Small side note: I had hoped the Sox would bring Jeff Bailey onto the roster. At this point, if Lowell completely breaks down, they would have to play a lefty (Casey or Kotsay) at first, unless the Lowell's put on the DL, in which case we'd lose him for the rest of the current and all of the (hopefully) following series.

Quicky Handicapping

2008-09-30T21:52:00.006-04:00

It seems the Sox biggest worry - aside from the un-baseball flukes that can doom a three game series - is the health of Beckett, Lowell, and Drew. I am very worried about Beckett. Every movement in this sport of ours is a extremely forceful twist; an oblique is the muscle that runs that motion. I also worry about Lowell attempting to handle a Chone Figgins bunt with that bum hip of his.

The Sox have some chance of winning without Lowell. Casey and Cora (and Kotsay) would be starting for a lot of other teams, and the Sox could win without Lowell if they had wonderful pitching.

However, the Sox can NOT win without Josh Beckett. Lester and Dice-K are pretty good, but the Sox need one more pitcher and that guy simply has to be Beckett.

I am not really worried about Drew. He probably won't play all that much, but frankly Kotsay gives you most everything Drew does, with the significant exception of power. The fact is though that the Sox will win or lose on pitching and their solid defense and deep tough lineup. They're not going to pound teams into the ground.

Go Sawx. Gooooooooooo Sox.

The Starting Nine

2008-09-06T13:11:00.002-04:00

Here are nine random thought about the Sox in the order in which I think of them:

I'm so glad I was wrong that the Sox would surely dump Coco Crisp this season. I know he's not much of a hitter - except when he's on fire like he is right now - but he's really been an important part of this team all year. He's a starter on almost any other team, and he's allowed the Sox to avoid completely throwing a still-maturing Jacoby out there in an absolute sink-or-swim situation. Coco's versitility, great defense, speed, and functional bat (he'll end up batting around .280 with 8 homers) make him invaluable. Maybe they'll trade him this off season, but this has worked out very well and there is no need to dump him until (if?) Jacoby really comes into his own.
I hope the Sox retired Wakefield's jersey when he retires. That's probably not going to happen since all the retired numbers now were worn by HoF'ers. Wake will pitch his 500th game in a Sox uniform tonight (second only to Bob Stanley) and he's been an essential player and person in the franchise for very very long.
Our bench is going to include Sean Casey, Mark Kotsay, Coco Crisp and Alex Cora. Wow.
I wonder if bench coach Brad Mills will finally get a well-deserved head coaching gig this winter. Selfishly I hope not.
How can one be as passionate about a sports team as I am about the Sox when I really very rarely actually get to watch a game? Reading about, talking about, and checking out stats about the Sox seem almost as entertaining as watching the games themselves.
The Globe recently brought Tony Massarotti over from the Herald after about 20 years there. I'm not sure I have an opinion on that, but it's interesting in some way. There doesn't seem to be much diversity in where we get our Sox news and this seems a step back on that, but I do like Mazz and don't read the Herald very often.
Mazz wrote today, "Division title or not, (making the playoffs) is really all that matters." I think the division matters. It is a championship, a goal. Meeting that goal should be important too. Every championship is really about feeling like champions, it's not like your getting there cures cancer. So winning the division matters. I guess that's the downside of the wild card system, which I do love.
The Sox seem to have a real lack of power in they minor leagues. With Papi not getting any younger, and no other elite power guy in the line up, but rather a collection of ideal 5th spot hitters (Bay, Lowell, Youk, and Drew), I think the Sox future has a lot riding on Portland (AA) first baseman Lars Anderson. He's very big and young, and yet not too far from the bigs. Maybe he'll get a drink of water next year and hopefully some time in the Major League spring camp. But, aside from a major trade, this guy seems to me to be important to the Sox success in 2011 and beyond.
If the playoffs started today, I think the Sox would move Wake to the bullpen and let Byrd get the 4th start. The benefit is that 'Tek would then be able to catch every game, and Byrd did pitch rather well in the playoffs last year (against us). Then again, that means 'Tek would likely have to catch Wake in long relief, which is just a heart attack. We'll see.

Fine Dining Despite Setting the Table with Plastic Cutlery

2008-08-30T11:27:00.001-04:00

I love Ellbury and I can't wait for he and Pedroia to become the dominant top of the order in the major leagues. Too bad that day is not today.

The Sox have struggled mightily at the top of the order. The leadoff spot is b atting .238, with a .306 OBP and .310 slugging. Ouch. That is worse than their 9th spot hitters. It is worse in each of these categories than every other team in the A.L. except Oakland (with the exception of the Twins having a worse OBP). Ellsbury has had 399 at bats leading off, with a .307 OBP. Pedroia has had 72, with a .256 OBP. Lugo only 15 at bats. Drew only 29 (.172 BA, but 10 walks).

What's so odd about this is that the Sox are still second in the league in runs and leading the A.L. in OBP as a team. You wouldn't think that a team getting so little production from the leadoff spot, along with significant injuries to Papi and Lowell, a second half plung by J.D. Drew and the excommunication of Mad Manny would still score runs like that.

I started writing this post, after seeing those leadoff stats, thinking that the Sox should move Pedy to the top of the order. Pedroia had a .393 OPB leading off last year. Yet, with the production of Pedroia in the #2 hole this year, Ellsbury's speed (and his obvious future leading off), and the injuries which have shortened the Sox line up, I think the current top of the batting order is the best we can do right now.

The other options would be move Pedroia up and insert Jacoby, Youk, Kotsay or Lowrie at #2, or move Kotsay/Drew to leadoff again. Tito wouldn't want lefties like Jacoby or Kotsay/Drew batting in front of the lefty Papi. And with Lowell out, Youk is indispensible to the middle of the line up, as Lowrie is to a lesser extent at the bottom.

So, now that I've taken you on this meandering "logic" trip, I will drop you off at the same place we started: Jacoby should remain at the top of the order and we can all marvel at the fact that the Sox score runs with such an anemic leadoff spot.

Sumoza? I hardly knew ya.

2008-08-27T16:19:00.001-04:00

The Sox just picked up outfielder MarkKotsay, 32, from the Braves for young outfielder Luis Sumoza, 20. With J.D. Drew going on the 15-Day D.L. yesterday - retroactive to Aug. 18 which means he should be available again early next week - the Sox needed some insurance. Not coincidentally, J.D. will be off the D.L. just as the major league rosters expand, which means Bay, Ellsbury, Crisp, Drew, Kotsay (and Bailey?) can all remain on the team for the last month.

Given this move, it seems the Sox are genuinely concerned the Drew might be hampered by his back all year and didn't want to be caught flat-footed. Kotsay is a centerfielder by trade, but I expect he'll play rightfield as he has a very good arm. He is an effective hitter with a .289 BA, .340 OBP, and .418 slugging. He has limited power but he's definitely an improvement over Crisp (or Bailey). Fun fact: the lefthanded hitting Kotsay was once a lights-out righthanded closer, guiding Cal State-Fullerton to the 1995 College World Series title as the tournament's "Most Outstanding Player."

Here's the downside: the Sox gave up a raw talent for a decent but unspectacular major leaguer. Sumoza - who hit a homer earlier this year for the Lowell Spinners in Burlington's Centennial Field against the hometown Lake Monsters - is a major power prospect in an organization lacking in pop. He was the league player of the week once and had an 18-game hitting streak this year.

I think I have a case of Bagwell-Anderson PTSD going on. Last year's trade of David Murphy - who might have won ROY this year if not for a recent injury - and Engel Beltre for the goggled one, has left me traumatized. Beltre might be a better prospect as indicated by his $600,000 signing bonus out of the D.R. while Sumoza received $200,000 in Venezuela - though I bet there are tons of factors in play here that I don't get, including the fact that the guy that signed Beltre has been fired for some very very shady dealings. I digress. Basically, I hate to lose a big time talent for a rent-a-player.

That said, it's a good trade.

Instant Replay

2008-08-26T16:26:00.004-04:00

The Associated Press is reporting that Major League Baseball will begin allowing instant replay to be used by umpires. It says:

For now, video will be used only on so-called "boundary calls," such as determining whether fly balls went over the fence or whether potential home runs were fair or foul. Video will be collected at the office of Major League Baseball Advanced Media in New York. If the crew chief at a game decides replay needs to be checked, umpires will leave the field, technicians at MLBAM will show umpires the video and the crew chief will make the call.

This is a good thing. There is no benefit to the sport, its fans, or players to not having a call made correctly. Given how few "boundary calls" are close, this will be an exceedingly rare occurrence. People who don't like baseball already think it's slow. Those who love it, want the calls to be made correctly.

The Casey-Lowrie Samba

2008-08-22T20:01:00.004-04:00

This 'ill be a short post as I'm on vacation, but I'd love some insights from my many, many... many! readers about a question my dad and I can not seem to find an answer to: why are the Sox routinely pulling Sean Casey in the ninth inning in order to play Cora at short, Lowrie at third, and Youk at first? I'm am very much open to opinions.

I don't like this move. Obviously, Youk is a fantastic first baseman. But when they pull Casey to bring in someone else, they lose a player for the rest of that game. In doing so, they get a better firstbase man, but they put a rookie shortstop (Lowrie) at third. Casey is a solid firstbaseman (if anyone can tell me which of these three ways I'm supposed to spell that word, you win a caramel, a real caramel). Why do you lose a player on your bench for the benefit of Youk over Casey at first while exchanging Youk for Lowrie at third? Not worth it to me.

Anybody? Anybody? Bueller?

Lowrie v. Lugo

2008-08-15T16:39:00.000-04:00

I was reading an article yesterday (inexplicably archived now and unavailable after only one week) in the Boston Herald (diversity of sources folks) which contained a really interesting observation: Julio Lugo has the best on base percentage of any starting shortstop in the American League. Check it out here.

Lugo is batting .268 with a .355 OBP. Jed Lowrie is ahead of him, but he's officially (officially?) sitting for Julio - Lowrie's batting .310 with a .368 batting average. On the other hand, I don't think we can count on Lowrie to be a .310 major league 6th-spot hitter all year.

The obvious difference between the two is Lowrie's real-deal pop. Something happened to Lugo since he left Tampa Bay and he left his power in the dome. Lowrie's slugging percentage is .468 while Lugo's is a painful .330. Lowrie's 29 RBIs in less than half the plate appearances it took Lugo to get 22 is the statistical talk of the town. Lowrie hit a ball a few weeks ago against Oakland for a triple which was just crushed. With any loft that's in the stands in center, in Fenway. I have never said that about Lugo.

Additionally, Peter Gammons wrote in a recent Globe online Q&A: "one national league team that does defensive ratings like Red Sox and Indians has Lowrie's defense ranked 5th among the 62 major league shortstops. I might add that Derek Jeter and Jose Reyes were in the 40's."

At the risk of being struck by lightning because of the hubris of questioning a living god, I think Gammons and his scout buddy go a bit too far with this. My guess is that the fact that Lowrie has not made a single error in his 24 games at short really skews the statistics. Yes, he deserves a great deal of credit for not making an error, but I bet statistically he will shoot down the rankings once be breaks that seal, which he will do. Also, according to the range factor stat (which I do not trust but which I bet is in that scout's analysis), Lowrie has more range than Lugo (4.10 to 3.70). Most people seem to think Lugo has the superior range - Lowrie's liability was supposed to be his range and glove.

My point? Who says I have to have one. It's my damned blog.

I did begin thinking about this post seeking to debate what is now an arguably moot point since Lowrie's batting average has shot up. Anyway, here it is for the sake of argument: if Lowrie has more RBIs and almost no errors, but Lugo gets on base more and covers more ground, why is it that we all know we want Lowrie as the starting shortstop? The obvious answer is that his slugging is great (only behind the Royal's super-surprise Mike Aviles and J-HHonny Peralta in the AL). Any other thoughts? Can I get a saber-disciple to admit RBIs matter?

Side note: I like his holiness Peter Gammon's idea of using Lugo as a super-sub the rest of this year and even the next few years if he'll take it. The Sox have him under contract for two more years after this one. He can play every position on the field and you could do worse as a back up bat. I'm doubtful he'd take it, but I think that that versatility is the only way that the now 33 year old Lugo is still in the majors at 37.

Soft Toss

2008-08-12T20:09:00.005-04:00

The Sox just traded for Paul Byrd from the Indians. The soft-tossing veteran righty never walks anyone, is only slightly less hitable them me, and does a stricking tribute to the likes of Grover Cleveland Alexander every time he winds up. Byrd might very well be the non-knuckleballer with the slowest fastball in the game today. But he's effective and I like this trade.

Byrd hardly walks anyone (only 24 so far this year) but does get hit hard, at .282 this year, with a .466 slugging and OBP of .316. That results in a respectable but not great 1.30 WHIP, about the same as Jon Lester's. Byrd will be a welcome edition to the back-end of the rotation. With Wake's health in question and Buchholz royally struggling, we need another arm who can give us a shot to win most games he starts. Byrd will do that.

As an aside, I get a kick out of how much different Byrd is than our beloved Dice-K. Byrd averages about 82 pitches in 6 innings every time he starts. Dice-K throws 99 pitches in just under 6 innings per start. The difference really matters when they're pitching well: Byrd can generally keep pitching as long as he's getting outs, while Matsuzaka often gets pulled after the 5th or 6th inning when he's throwing well because he's around the century mark in pitches. By my calculations, the Dice Man has been pulled out of one quarter of his 20 starts before or during the 6th inning when he was pitching well (by my judgment) simply because he'd thrown 96 pitches in 5 innings, 117 in 5, 101 in 5.1, 109 in 5, and 118 in 5.2 (log here). Meanwhile, Byrd has surpassed 100 pitches only once this year (going 7.2 innings), and threw only 94 pitches in his complete game last time out. Both players are making around $8 million this year. That said , I would take Dice-K over Byrd anytime, but it's worth thinking about. Maybe Byrd can teach Dice-K something about efficiency (this makes me wonder if Blowhard Schilling might actually be missed this year as an efficiency-in-pitching tutor, hmm).

Now, what's it going to be like watching Wake and Byrd (and maybe Zink) in the rotation together? Maybe 'Tek and Cash could use mittens to catch Byrd, mostly because that would be hysterical.

The fall-out thus far

2008-08-03T11:10:00.004-04:00

Jason Bay has started off strongly in Boston which is a great relief. I'd always heard he was one of the most under-the-radar stars in baseball, but I worried he'd implode under the pressure in Boston if he didn't immediately show to the skeptical fandom that he's a major talent in the prime of his career. I somehow doubt that he ever had hundreds of cameras focused on him anytime he's arrived at the ballpark before.

It's also worth noting that you'd never see Manny cover ground enough to make the sliding catch Bay made Friday and when did Manny last have a stand-up triple? This team just became far more athletic.

To be fair, I thought I'd post a few clips from feedback I've had from friends and stuff I've read elsewhere about the trade:

Nomaa in the L.A. Times: "There's a lot of truth to what he said. I can definitely understand and relate... Manny said he didn't want to leave there. I didn't want to leave there. . . . Were we the only ones that have gone through it? There's a track record. I played with Mo [Vaughn]. I played with Roger [Clemens]."

Jason Stark from ESPN.com casts the Sox as "losers" in his rating of the trade deadline deals: "this trade marks the end of a special era in the life of their team. They have a different aura now than they had a week ago. And the reaction of folks all over their division to Manny's unceremonious exit -- an exit subsidized with $7 million of those hard-earned Red Sox dollars, we should note -- told us all we needed to know: It felt like Mardi Gras for the rest of the AL East."
From a friend's son: "everyone knows he's totally nuts and he does the exact same thing every year, asking for a trade, sitting out a game, and not legging out a ground ball. Then they try to trade him, but don't, and he gets jolly again and continues being the best righthanded hitter of his generation. Every single year this happens exactly the same. Management is supposed to be smarter than him and know that he's just a quirky fellow. They're not supposed to get in a pissing match with the best right handed hitter of his generation just to show that they're in charge."

From a friend, "Whether it was displayed in positive or negative ways, I was a member of the gotta love him because sometimes you hate him crew. The 2008 Sox just don't have the same diverse group of guys you'd hang out in a bar with as the 2004 Sox. Can't hold onto 2004 forever I know, so I've decided change is good sometimes, right? Plus, I like the fact that we are saving some money so that we can maybe work something for pitching in the off season."

Lastly, in case you didn't see this, a "source" in the Sox says that Manny's agent Scott Boras actually called the Sox post-trade to say Manny would play nice for the rest of the year if the Sox dropped the options from his contract and didn't trade him. Boras denies it. As per my long standing rule, I trust anyone who says the oposite of what Scott Boras says.

To New Beginnings. Cheers

2008-07-31T21:11:00.008-04:00

I am happy I was wrong about the Manny trade. Today the Sox traded Manny, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen for former Vermont Expo, outfielder Jason Bay. Since I was living in Burlington during the time he played there and did go to many Expos' games, I consider Jason Bay a close personal friend, despite never having "met" him.

This is a good trade for the Sox. They had to take a leap of faith within the next year or two to acquire a younger slugger. Such a trade will by it's nature be a risk. Nonetheless , I think this is about as low a risk trade as there is. The frustrating part will be potentially watch Moss turn into a strong corner outfielder in the mold of... Jason Bay. And given his stuff, there's still a chance that Hansen will be an elite closer in the not-too-distant future.

I look at the trade this way:

In order to get Bay, we gave up Manny(and have to pay the rest of his salary for the year, $7 million).
In order to get a power hitter 6 years younger than Manny, we traded away a young power bullpen arm (and one that is currently on the active major league roster).
In order to get rid of the distraction and headache that is Manny Ramirez, we traded a young, major league-ready outfielder/firstbaseman.

For my money, I think this is a good trade. I feel that Manny is so selfish that he would (again) mail in the season or even fake an injury just to screw the team and inflict some bizarro world idea of justice on those that slighted him. On that front, let me just say: "the Red Sox don't deserve me"? You don't deserve the Red Sox and their fans. The Sox fans have let Manny get away with destroying a season and driving us insane, purely because he can hit like no one I've ever seen.

So what does Tito do with the line-up? In a perfect world, J.D. would still be tearing it up and Ellsbury could bat leadoff, but that's not the world we'll watch the Sox play in tomorrow night against Oakland. They may just insert Bay into the clean up spot. Or will we see a future lineup like Jacoby, Pedroia, Bay, Tiz, J.D., Lowell, Youk, Tek, Lowrie?

It's a new era, and it's about baseball, not Manny.

Loose Ends: I am excited to have a much better baserunner and more mobel outfielder in left than Manny ever was. Bay's are is supposed to be pretty weak, but as Troy O'Leady, Mike Greenwell and others have shown, it takes accurate throws to play the Monster, not long ones... How in the world did the Dodgers get Manny Ramirez for a backup infielder and a pitching prospect? ... The Sox will have one open spot on their roster with the loss of Hansen. Aardsma and Colon are the most likely long-term prospect to take that. For now, I'd guess a return my righty Chris Smith... Bay is under contract through next year.

Manny Fun Times Were Had

2008-07-30T21:06:00.000-04:00

First let me present an idea: there should be a video game in which you play the management of a baseball team and you have to deal with Manny Ramirez. The Sims, move aside. It's Manny's world and we're all just laughing and groaning through it.

Now to business: Manny is a baby. Everything is a slight, nobody respects him, contrary to what a "rational" person might read into the huge contract, constant recognition as one of the best hitters of his generation, and, most of all, a generally bemused affection for his Manny-being-Manny antics which would have put a non-superstar player on the Jose Guillen, talented but not-in-my-back-yard category. The guy is given more leash than a Great Dane that just scarfed down some beano, but he nonetheless wants out.

The Sox will not trade Manny by noon tomorrow. They expect to make a serious run at another title this year. In that light, they will only trade Manny if they can get near-equal value. They cannot afford to put that big a dent in the line-up. Without Manny, they have four hitters in the every day line up whom no one is afraid of right now: Ellsbury, Coco, Lowrie, and Tek. I think Nick C. from the Globe has it right that they will exercise its option for next year and try to trade him (again) in the off-season.

Since they would be giving up their clean-up hitter and they expect to still win now, there are few options out there of players available and who make the Sox as good or better now. On the other hand, more teams are possible trading partners for this trade than in most trades. That's because many contenders would love to have Manny in their lineup. So, maybe there is something that works among National League contenders. But I doubt it.

The Sox are better with Manny in the line up and they are at the mercy of his pouting. If he mails this season in, no Boston sports writer should vote for him for the Hall of Fame and he should be roundly booed if he ever returns to the Fens after this year. He owes us his effort. He's paid very very well and the fans have supported him despite his maddening mistakes and his demoralizing carelessness.

Manny will not be traded by noon tomorrow, but I am now in the camp of people who hopes he never plays in the Red Sox uniform again after this year.

The Knuckler

2008-07-22T17:22:00.000-04:00

As you may have noticed, I am fascinated by the knuckleball. Wake is having another great year. John Farrell recently said in this great article breaking down most of the pitchers about Wakefield: "He's 42, yet he continues to evolve and improve." How does that happen?

Meanwhile, PawSox righty Charlie Zink is dominating this year. His stats are out of this world: 11-3, 2.54 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. Zink is 28 years old and seems to be ready to be given a shot (see the NY Times article about him from June). But I don't know how they'd use him. He's too old to really trade for much and there's no room for him in the rotation, or in the pen. He used to throw 95 mph in college and, most interesting to me, uses a change up as his secondary pitch. I have no clue why that works?

Lastly, the Sox get a taste of their own medicine tonight when they face Seattle's righthanded knuckler R.A. Dickey. While Zink was undrafted and Wake was a (bad) minor league first baseman, Dickey was a major league pitcher and 18th overall pick for the Rangers before becoming a knuckler. Dickey throws his knuckler much harder than Wake and can burn a fastball in there sometimes still. You can watch a pretty interesting video here of an ESPN reporter trying to catch his knuckler.

Side note: does it make me smaat to be interested in this, just like the NY Times which had articles on Zink and Dickey this year (both linked above) or does it take the gray lady down a peg or two?

Mid-Season Report

2008-07-16T22:43:00.005-04:00

As the Sox head into the second "half" of the season, they are in pretty good shape. They've won rather consistently all year, are in first place, have Papi almost ready for a return, and have shown strong pitching, hitting, and fielding. That said, I'm a Red Sox fan, so, here are my concerns:

Papi's Health: I feel like he'll come back this year. But I'm starting to worry that he's Mo Vaughn all over: a great power hitter who just starts falling a part as he gets older. I hope I'm wrong.
Bullpen: This seems to be the #1 concern for the fans. I'll go on the record here that I think they should stand pat come the trading deadline. Pap is a money closer (remind me to rant later about the Newsday cover). Mini Manny, Oki, Timlin, Hansen, Masterson, Lopez, and Aardsma are frankly as good as you are going to get on the market. No Larry Anderson, Gagne or Brian Fuentes is worth giving up a good prospect for. They are not great, but I truly believe we can't do better right now and there are not many teams that have it better. As I've said before, the real key is getting more innings from the starters.
Starters: Dice-K needs to walk fewer guys because that will catch up to you 99 percent of the time. He's tough to hit, but he'll lose close games if he keeps giving away first. Beckett will be great in the second half. Wake... yeah. Lester seems to keep getting better and better. I think he was really our ace in the first half and I have no reason to doubt that he'll be very solid in the second. Buchholz/Colon is about as good as anybody's fifth starter and can be great at times. Clay really is going to be nasty, eventually.
Shortstop: I'm mostly happy to see Lugo go down. I like Lowrie and Cora out there for offense (Lowrie) and defense (Cora, especially as a late inning defensive replacement which will give us the world's best infield). My question is what do they do when Lugo gets back if this platoon works. Aren't they paying Lugo the GDP of Iceland to play this year?
'Tek: That painfully ugly swing from the left side has finally completely fallen apart. It was always too long for my tastes and it is too off balance for someone who could have driven the ball much better if he were balanced. 'Tek will continue to be the defensive and game-calling rock. I hope he just cuts down on that insult to Louisville and puts the ball in play going forward.

All in all, not too many complaint. That is until they lose some games to the Angels and I lament their demise. Wasn't our collective pessimism supposed to disappear after we won a (few) World Series title(s)? Guess not.

Young Guns Flipped

2008-07-07T22:36:00.004-04:00

My first reaction was decidedly negative regarding the Sox' decision today to send Justin Masterson down to Pawtucket to get him bullpen-ready in exchange for Clay Buchholz. That's my initial reaction. Now, I'm going to try to unpackage it for good and bad.

Masterson really has been about as good as you can ask of a end-of-the-rotation slinger. He has gone six innings in all but one of his nince starts - in which he went five. In only one of those starts has he given up more hits than innings pitched. Here's the game log for his nine starts. He had one more start than Clay who was drastically less effective with only three out of eight starts getting through six - and he only had three starts last year so it's not as if he's quite a known commodity in the majors quite yet.

I do believe that Buchholz will be the better starter long term. He has more pitches and most of them are plus. When he's going, he can locate them all and keep any batter very off balance. He's a top flight prospect and ready to pitch in the majors now.

Yet, Masterson is pitching too damn well over a significant number of starts - almost a third of a season's normal 35 starts - to hand over to Rhode Island now right? I also am a firm believer that sinker ballers should be treated differently. A great sinker, somewhat like the knuckler, is not hit well by major league hitters even if they know it's coming. They get away with location mistakes, unlike pitchers like Clay with low 90s heat and good breaking stuff. If a sinkerballer has it, hitters can guess right all they want but they still will play pepper all day with the infielders. Masterson has an insane sinker. It comes from a crazy angle and drops and moves laterally viciously. I think that he can still be effective even if they figure him out somehow.

'Nough said. Decision made. Buchholz is back in the rotation. Masterson will be in the bullpen later this season. I can live with that. It's not a bad decision. But I'm shocked. They took my baby. I miss Justy and his sinking nastiness already. I feel cold...

What a mess

2008-07-03T16:08:00.003-04:00

The game last night was ugly. The Sox pitching fell apart, losing their fifth straight game, all but one by one run (and that one by two) (and two by one by four by three, sorry, if you're going to be annoying, just go with it).

The obvious issue last night was the bullpen. Tito handed the ball over to Delcarman who looked desperate to give it back. Hansen then came in and was even worse. I think we can call see that we'd like last year's Oki and Timlin from four years ago back. Fact is, we're only going succeed this year with these two guys stepping up, Oki and Timlin being serviceable, maybe a trade if there is anyone out there worth it (doubtful), AND starting pitching that goes at least seven innings.

Dice-K has thrown better the last two games by 5 innings? Did you mom by you a Push Pop after the game for that Dice-K? Everyone gets a trophy!!! The starting pitcher can throw 5 nice innings but he has not done his job if that's all he throws. You're asking the bullpen (i.e. 7 guys not good enough to start) to throw four near-perfect innings in this case. That is how you lose games. I have a plan: Dice-K, do better.

Lastly, with the obviously love-him corollary, what was Tito doing out there. Is Delta handing out frequent flier miles for walks to the mound? First, I think he should have left Manny D. in there to sink or swim. He's the best we have and he wasn't throwing too badly. Secondly, why take out Aardsma for a lefty-lefty situation after you are already behind and only in the 7th inning? Aardsma should have stayed in through the 8th in hopes that we come back and Lopez can be used in a real emergency. That part worked out because Lopez made it though the 8th but I still don't like it, and that's what matters. Thirdly, to go back to the 5th inning, I don't get really why Hansen warmed up in the 5th while Dice-K was still in there, then sat, then replaced Delcarman. Maybe Hansen is better with inherited runners than Manny so they thought they'd bring him in if Dice-K gave up a big hit that inning, but liked the idea of Manny starting a clean inning in the 7th. But would that have meant, if everything had gone well, Manny would have gone two, Hansen and Lopez would have taken on the 8th, Pap would have gone two...? Seemed odd to me.

Anyway, I don't have a solution, but I obviously have a few gripes.

Gagne Fall-Out

2008-06-19T19:07:00.000-04:00

Let's go back for a second and look at the (sort of) end results of the Gagne trade late last year with the Rangers.

At the trading deadline last year, the Sox got Eric Gagne and eventually a "sandwich pick" in this year's draft for two mid-level, major league-ready prospects outfielder David Murphy and lefty pitcher Kason Gabbard, and far-from-ready outfielder prospect, 19-year old Engel Beltre. I'll use a five-to-minus-five scale.

Murphy is having a hell of a year and has some shot at the taking the R.O.Y. - though not if Jacoby has anything to say about it. He has 10 homers, 48 RBIs, 20 doubles, .463 slugging and .313 OBP. Ok, so maybe the Sox were not too high on him because he does not walk much and strikes out a lot. But, he's slugging the ball and can play all the outfield positions. Seems like he might be a keeper for the Rangers. -3

Gabbard seems to be on a shuttle between Arlington and Oklahoma, home of their Triple-A squad. He has started 10 games and is back in the bigs now. He's 1-3 with a .295 batting average against and significantly more walks than strikeouts. He's still a lefty starter so I wouldn't mind having him in Pawtucket, but not a huge deal. -1

Beltre remains the most annoying loss to me. He's not hitting too well in the Midwest League in Clinton, Iowa (?). But he's still a big time talent and only a kid. I really hate that we lost him. But, we did gain a first round pick. -3

Gagne sucked so immensly it was breathtaking. The smallness of the negative only reflects the fact that usually picking up a player is a net gain of something. He was so bad that he disproves this rule. -1

Here is the good news. Because Gagne was considered a high-level free agent according to MLB's grading system, we were able to draft Bryan Price out of Rice Univ. Price is a 6'4" right hander "with a 95 mph fastball with good movement and mid 80s hard slider" according to SoxProspect.com. They also say he's a bit wild. I'm a big fan of drafting college pitchers, especially ones that didn't pitch much in college. A pitcher's shoulder is very fragile and less mileage is better when the stuff is this good. +3

End result: we lost this one. I'd be happy about the loss if only we hadn't given up Beltre. That sticks in my craw. Did I just write that? What does that even mean? Oh well...

Winning the 6th and 7th

2008-06-11T18:44:00.000-04:00

This season we have seen many fine (used here loosely) examples of why the Sox have designed their offense around building up other teams' pitch counts while trying hard to get their pitchers deep into the game. The reason: very few teams ever have more than two pitchers they can rely on in the late innings to get more than one out. Last year, late in the year especially, the Sox were blessed to have Manny D. set up for Oki to give it to the indomitable Pabst.

This year, the math hasn't worked out quite so cleanly.

I'll talk about the why later. But the point I'm trying to make here is that in the major leagues, the way you win games is by winning the race to face the other team's bull pen.

With the exception of the old Reds with Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble, and Randy Myers, almost no team can consistently shut their opponent down for the last three innings of the game. So, you want two things:

Your starting pitcher must pitch to contact and go deep in the game. It is important that the Sox pitchers go into the seventh inning and often finish that. Otherwise, you have to rely too much on inconsistent arms with a slight lead.
Your lineup must wear down the opposing starter. Often the opposing starter is facing the Sox lineup in the 6th having already thrown around 100 pitches. That means a few very good things for the hitters: the pitcher is tired (mentally and physically) and the bullpen is getting ready - with it's 3rd or 4th best pitcher if the game is close.

The Sox thus need to get deeper into games with their starters. That will be helped when Dice-K is back and when Colon can go deeper. Unfortunately, Masterson seems to be on a bit of a tight leash. I'm ok with that, but it's not helpful on this front. Luckily, he seems to be rather efficient with his pitches, as you'd expect from a sinker baller.

Also, they need to continue to put together tough at bats up and down the order. It's helpful that even the backups are good at this and that the kids coming up from the minors have had this bred into them.

Oh, and the bullpen needs to pitch better. But the point here is that we can't really legitimately expect that.

Life Missing Papi

2008-06-04T19:38:00.002-04:00

So Big Papi is down and out for a while, probably at least a month. Deep breaths. Deep breaths.

There is no good news here. So, moving forward, the Sox called up youngster Chris Carter (first base and bad outfield) who we picked up indirectly for Wily Mo Pena. The Sox now have to figure out how to put the best B squad out there every day sans Papi.

The Sox should let Carter hit some DH and play some left field, especially if sinkerballer Justin Masterson is pitching. The reports on Carter is that he can really hit, but that he can't play defense and has a terrible arm. So, let him play left in the Fens some where the need for an arm is minimal. Outside of that, Tito should play Coco in center and Jacoby in left. Related to what I said above, this lineup is less needed with a starting pitcher that throws lots of grounders and in the not-too-spacious outfield of Fenway Park. You don't have much benefit to a speedy leftfielder infront of the monster.

Another possibility is giving Sean Casey a bit more time at first. That would mean moving Youk or Lowell at DH. I am not a fan of the idea floated to use Casey at DH. I am morally opposed to the idea of having a great fielding, light hitting back up DH - especially when he was brought in to hopefully rest Youk some so he makes it through the season.

Lastly, I was surprised that they went with Carter of my boy Brandon Moss. Moss is hitting very well in Pawtucket, learning to play first, a much better outfielder than Carter, and must be feeling pretty good about his ability to play at this level considering his two homers this year in just a few games. But, according to Red Sox Prospects, he is out of options. That is, if they brought up Moss, he'd have to be on the team all season. Carter has never been up before and has 3 options left. So, if that's true, we won't see Moss until Crisp is traded or in some other way a roster spot opens up for the rest of the season, ie a season ending injury.

On that sad note, I bid you Freddy Adu.

Young Guns

2008-05-19T19:55:00.003-04:00

The Sox are really showing that they have an incredible depth of young pitching. Two of their young starters, Lester and Buchholz, have thrown no-hitters already. Their young closer is maybe the best in the game. Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman have shown that they might well be the Mariano Rivera to Paplebon's John Wetteland - though it's also clear that we are not there yet, a big disappointment to me regarding Mr. Delcarman

And tonight we get our second look at Justin Masterson. There's talk about his eventually being a reliever. My thoughts are very clear on this: is dumb. I don't like using sinker ballers as relievers unless they're just not good enough to start. The sinker is a pitch that you throw to contact, that you actually want people to make contact with so as to make them ground out and minimize a starter's pitch count. That is less than ideal for a short reliever.

Anyway, my point is that I'm in awe of the young arms. Clay has struggled this year and will probably be in the minors until Colon breaks down, but I still think he's going to be a good one. Lester seems to be a winner: doing what he needs to win the game, while rarely wowing you (obviously, that's an odd thing to say today). I also think the relievers are good and we'll see minny Manny playing a key (and positive) roll in the playoffs this fall.

Lastly, sorry to everyone for not posting anything for a bit. I'll try to get back on the once or twice a week horse.

Update: here is a great breakdown by the Globe on this very subject.

More Kudos to "Little Fenway"

2008-04-13T22:14:00.001-04:00

I've posted before about "Little Fenway", the whiffleball field made to look like Fenway park in Jericho, Vermont. I love this place - even though I haven't been there... yet. They even created a Little Wrigley now.

So, I just received an email from Pat O'Connor came up with this idea and built this monument to baseball, justice, peace, humanity, and wacky pitches. Here's the email:

Greetings,

I wanted you to be the first to know that a new book titled "Little Fenway: Bigger than a Baseball Fan's Imagination" is now available for purchase via paypal on www.littlefenway.com. During the past seven years the magic of Little Fenway has brought laughter and hope to children of all ages through Wiffle ball tournaments and community events. The book describes how the idea was conceived, the design and construction of the field, and the events on this acre of land that have warmed the hearts of this Vermont community.

This 160-page laminated hard-cover book features 27 black & white and 194 color photographs. The price on www.littlefenway.com is $29.65, which is 10% off the list price. Shipping and handling is an additional one time charge of $5.35 for up to ten books.

Vermont on Opening Day: A Mixed Bag

2008-04-11T17:52:00.000-04:00

As the self-appointed spokesperson for Vermont's province of the Red Sox Nation, I would like to express my "sincerest" apologies to the rest of the world, nay, the rest of the galaxy for the recent transgression by a pilot in the Vt. National Guard. Apparently, a pilot for the Guard was running late because he was going too fast (what?) and had to end up doing a "legitimate maneuver" which made for a nice show but wasn't quite regulation. Basically, I think this guy just wanted to go all Topper Harley but got the old Camp Johnson grounding for his screwball antics. Regardless: our bad. See the youtube here.

On a different note, Sox fans in Burlington had at least two establishments which opened up for the 6am first pitch of the season. Nectars and Kyoto Japanese Steakhouse were rocking. The Burlington Free Press had this article about what it's like to have Japanese steak and eggs while watching the Red Sox play at 6am on a school day in Burlington, Vermont. But really, who hasn't been there?

Be advised

2008-04-09T18:50:00.002-04:00

"The word on Bartolo Colon is his right oblique (side) is still tender to touch," according to the Globe.

I note this so any resident tickle enthusiasts contain their insatiable urges. Also so that, in order to preempt any ill-advised assaults, let me point out that Colon does not giggle if you pock him in his belly, contrary to persistent rumors -take it from one who tried.

Game on...

I miss your long locks...

2008-04-06T12:19:00.006-04:00

I stand (sit) corrected (mentally bitchslapped) by the fact that Kyle Snyder is the odd (because he's 6'8") man out in the bull(shit)pen. The Sox will have ten days to either trade that big, longhaired guy or waive him.

There's some small chance they could get something in a trade but I see very little chance of him clearing waivers and going to Pawtucket. My hope is that the rest of the league realizes how hard it is to find any reliever who can post a 3.81 ERA for a full season - as he did last year - and will be willing to trade something to not have to compete for his services on the open market. I think that the waiver system is progressive in that the worst teams get first crack at available players on the waiver wire; so, maybe a team with a good record last year might want to make a trade rather than allow Snyder to be picked up by the likes of the White Sox or Rays.

I think Snyder is a good pitcher and I was really thrown off the scent of this move by Mr. Fancona's little misdirection. Francona raved about Snyder a few weeks ago (sorry, can seem to locate that quote) which I thought meant that Tito simply had more confidence in Big Kyle than, say, Bryan Corey or David Aardsma. I thought wrong (enjoy this rare moment, enjoy it...)

Side note: this is the weirdest Web site ever.

The (bull)pending shakeup

2008-04-03T14:25:00.006-04:00

It's logjam time after the game tomorrow. In order to start on Sunday, Josh Beckett will have to be activated, and Mike Timlin will also have to be activated shortly. That'll bump two pitchers off the 25-man roster.

In an under the (my) radar move, the Sox already had to just let go Craig Breslow who the Indians quickly snagged. Breslow, a 27 year old lefty from Yale, was "out of options" so the Sox just let him go, gaining nothing. The Sox elected to keep Javier Lopez and the non-Oki lefty in the pen. The smart move no doubt, but it's too bad the Sox lost Breslow from a selfish perspective.

Now the Sox have another decision: which two of pitchers to drop now. The Globe thinks this competition is between lefty Lopez, and righties David Aardsma and Bryan Corey. I think that Julian Tavarez and Kyle Snyder are also in the mix on this. Lopez is the safest; I don't see the Sox dumping him as the only lefty specialist.

Aardsma, 26, has the most talent; Corey is pitching the best; Snyder is proven, can start, and is a Tito favorite, and Tavarez can start without dying (and his pointing antics are a net plus). I previously wrote about this situation and hoped then the Sox could trade Tavarez and sent Aardsma down. However, that trade isn't going to happen this week and Aardsma is out of options.

The trade isn't going to happen right now because the Sox will have to release one of these guys; so whose going to pay for something they can get for free? These guys all have trade value if one of them wasn't about to go to the freebie isle.

Aardsma is out of options, according to Fox. I think he's a gonner, but my hestitation comes from the fact that he was traded for. Do you trade 2 guys for a player you then release? Hmmm.

Another factor is Clay Buchholz and Bartolo Colon. If Clay struggles tomorrow and if Colon looks good today in Pawtucket, they could send Clay down, let Snyder start 2 games, then bring on Colon. It's an option, especially if you plan to give Colon a shot at the rotation after three Paw-starts. And it might be the most prudent option.

Here's my shoot-from-the-hip prediction: they'll drop Corey and send down Clay.

What I'd do in make believe: see if the White Sox will let you undo the Aardsma trade and hide Corey in a locker until it's safe to come out, after you trade Julian.

What I'd do in a video game: trade Tavarez to the Blue Jays so that I could hit off him and because they wouldn't calculate in that I might give him away in a day, and make Snyder a catcher...

My real, imperfect preference: drop Tavarez and send down Clay.

Blogging with Coffee

2008-03-25T07:16:00.002-04:00

Here are some thoughts as I drink coffee watching game number one:

Dice-K is obviously all over the place. It doesn't particularly worry me; though, of course, I'd love to see him pitching better. His change looks good, his cutter is sharp, his fastball is decent and his breaking stuff is in the wrong 郡 (county).
A's top prospect, 22 year old firstbaseman Daric Barton is hitting third this morning. In and of itself, impressive for a kid, even though he's on a team that thinks that Emil Brown is a middle-of-the-lineup bat. Ouch. But, the more important thing about Mr. Barton is that he was born in the home of Bart Simpson: Springfield, Vermont. He went to high school in California so I'm not sure about his relationship with the Green Mountains. But, I think it's safe to say that if he succeeds in his MLB career, Vermont can take most of the credit. It's only fair.
Josh Beckett was placed on the 15-Day DL and will be available April 3 in Toronto. I may have copied that directly of the ESPN2 ticker...
Can anyone explain to me why the only fan shots I've seen during this game were of American-looking fans wearing Sox t-shirts? I would like to see what people in Japan wear to a game, eat at a game, etc. etc. Thanks ESPN. Thanks for stepping up in this cultural exposure opportunity.
I miss J.D. Drew? Yes. I wish he were playing. I am big fan on Brandon Moss, but he's not the same kind of bat a Drew. The good thing is that the unique roster rules of this trip allow them to have Drew inactive then active for game 3 if they chose to do that.

Cor(e)y Snyder

2008-03-17T21:12:00.004-04:00

The pitching staff has not shaped up quite as I picked it a month ago. That's fine; it's spring. Beckett appears to be in shape to miss probably a start or maybe two, but not enough to warrant a 15-day DL stint to start the season. I just hope that they don't put his bad back on the plane to Japan for a PR stunt. With him out, and Schilling blogging and cashing checks, that moves everyone up. Right now, the rotation is Dice-K, Lester, Wake, Buchholz, _____. Right: not ideal.

With that spot in the rotation up for grabs and two bullpen spots open, there's a battle between four guys for two spots - two, not three, because Beckett will be on the active roster but not starting initially, I think. These long-man and spot-starter spots are between Bartolo Colon, Bryan Corey, Kyle Snyder, and Julian "the pointer" Tavarez.

In the Globe today, there were three interesting bits I picked up about this battle: Tito loves big Kyle, he's "stretching it out", as in pitching enough innings that he could start if needed, and scouts are watching Corey - a journeyman with a nice sinker who pitched well at the end of last year in Boston. Tavarez was also rumored in the off season to have sparked the interest of clubs.

I think they'll trade the pointer, keep Colon in Fort Myers for a few extra weeks to build strength, and start the season with a Corey Snyder combo. Snyder can start game 5 of the season, or they could even start with a 4 man rotation since they will play two games in Japan against Oakland then fly to Dodgerland with a day off in between. Then, for the second go around in the rotation, they either bring Beckett out if he's ready, throw Snyder out there again, or send Corey down on the Merloni express to Pawtucket and bring big Colon on.

End of an era

2008-03-14T18:13:00.001-04:00

You may have heard: Dougie Mirabelli has left the building. I repeat: Dougie has left the building. The departure of the Sox backup catcher and his gargantuan and glacial stroke means that this will be the last time I can link to this. Sad.

As for the baseball ramifications, I think this is a very good move. He will be replaced by Kevin Cash, who, incidentally, also cannot hit. "Young" Mr. Cash, 30, replaces the elder Mirabelli as 'Tek's backup and Wake's personal slave. Oh, you didn't know that Mr. and Mrs. Wakefield wake up every morning with eggs and toast brought to their bed side by Dougie in a maid's outfit? Well, you didn't hear it here...

Personally, I would think that the Sox should try to give one of the actually young guys, Dusty Brown or George Kottaras a shot first and let Cash stay in Pawtuck-ville to start the season and wait for a Josh Bard-esque implosion. But, since Cash has shown he can catch Wake's whiffleball, he deserves this shot. It's definitely the safest move. Cash will probably hit .210 and pursue Mirabelli's amazing record of past-balls. But that in itself is an accomplishment. Statistically, Cash may be the worst catcher in baseball and still be one of the best. Eat THAT Bill James!

I would like to point out how amazing it is that people who are some of the best in the world at the basic 2nd grade talent of catching a ball, cannot catch Wake. That's amazing to me! How the hell do you hit it if catchers can't catch it? It's like having a hot dog so big that Kobayashi can't eat it. It's exactly like that.

Good luck Cash, you'll need it.

(Sorry about the month long layoff. But what would YOU have talked about in the least eventful springtraining in Sox history?)

Projected Roster 2008

2008-02-12T12:34:00.000-05:00

Almost the exact same team that left the field after winning the Series:

2B Pedroia
1B Youk'
DH Ortiz
LF Manny
RF Drew
3B Lowell
C 'Tek
SS Lugo
CF Ellsbury

C Miribelli
Inf. Cora
1B Casey
OF Kielty
(I assume a Coco trade)

SP Beckett
SP Dice-K
SP Wake
SP Lester
SP Buchholz
RP Tavarez
RP Snyder
RP Lopez
RP Delcarmen
RP Timlin
RP Oki
CP Pap

40-man roster guys who might make the final 25: pitchers Bryan Corey, Craig Hansen, Craig Breslow, and Daniel Aardsma (#1 in baseball history on the alphabetical list); outfielder Brandon Moss. Ok, there are other players on there, but none that'll make the team out of camp. One other note, this guy they signed, Jonathan Van Every, seems like nice insurance in the outfield from Pawtucket.

Non-Roster Invitees: Kevin Cash, the catcher who almost made us forget about Dougy M. both due to his talent behind the plate with Wake and his inability to make contact with the baseball; former Brewers all-star closer Dan Kolb, seems to have lost everything quickly, but worth throwing out there and maybe having in Pawtucket; Keith Ginter, a second and third baseman with some good MLB experience including hitting 19 homers in 2004, so he might be insurance if Cora breaks down; there are also some of our top prospects on the non-roster invitee list (Lowrie, Bowden, and Masterson) which doesn't mean much regarding their talent but might make the Sox a bit more reluctant to add them to the 40 man and lose someone from it; there's also a guy named Hunter Jones who I've never heard of, but he's a 24 year old lefty who's 6'4" and 235 lbs. Wowsa. Be sure he doesn't sit on Dustin.

Stand by your man(s)

2008-02-12T12:01:00.000-05:00

I have never really been a big fan of either player before or since they started playing for the Sox, both because I have felt their on-field talent was overrated (often by themselves and their agents) and because their personalities seem to shine through and be less than appealing. But, I am glad to see that the Sox stuck with Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Yes, we won the Series last year and they both played well enough to not hinder that venture. But, they neither lived up to their billing prior to the 2007 season, especially offensively.

I am glad they are here still because the Sox have seemed to have a tendency to invest long-term and big money in top tier veteran players, then if/when they don't blow everyone away, they dump them after a year. Think Edgar Renteria. Renteria came to town after the first Series win and, a la Jose Offerman, took over for two very popular players in Nomaaa and the O.C. We signed him for 4 years and $40 million, then dumped him after a year for a 3B prospect who we quickly shipped out for what amounted to Coco. Great job guys. I truly believe that Edgar would have turned it around probably should still be playing short for the Sox which would be better than where we are not with Lugo. He had some sort of back problem, wasn't welcomed by the fans for some reason (can't wait for the boos when he arrives with the other best team in the A.L. this year the Tigers. Can you remind me again why we're booing this guy?), and there were weird rumors about strained personal relationships he had with his teammates.

Anyway, if you are going to invest in veteran talent, you should allow them to play, especially if they are not hurting your team. Lugo had a terrible year but his track record shows that they should give him a chance to "hit" the "ball" which he failed to do to an alarming degree last year. If he fails a second year, maybe turn to Jed Lowrie for 2009.

Similarly, there is no reason to think that J.D. won't actually start hitting like a 5-spot hitter this year rather than the #8 hitter he stroked like last season. I probably will never like him - stemming back to his exit from Florida State and treatment of the Phillies. But, he can play and we have no one in the wings.

Any free agent we could have signed to replace either of these guys might very well have had similar adjustment struggles to theirs. So, it makes sense to me to see if they live up to their records, and their paychecks, in year #2.

Closing In

2008-02-07T07:20:00.000-05:00

A few small things have happened in the last few days as the t's are dotted and the i's are crossed heading into "spring" training. We have liftoff very shortly:

Pitchers & Catchers - Feb. 15
First Workout - Feb. 16
Position Players - Feb. 20
First full workout - Feb. 21

Here are some interesting happenings, mostly from the Globe's blog:

Brendan Donnelly signed with the Tribe. I thought he'd be back or retire. I was frankly worried about how a career minor leaguer would afford what is probably expensive rehab from Tommy John surgery. I guess that wasn't a reasonable concern. I liked Donnelly, though the mention in the Mitchell Report does sour my feelings about him.
The Sox are "close to signing" Japanese catcher Hayato Doue, 25, to a minor-league deal. Here are his international league stats: .322 with 7 HRs and 50 RBIs in 89 games. Obviously, the organization could use yet another catcher with talent int he mix.
They resigned outfielder Bobby Kielty. Kielty is a perfect fit for the Sox as the forth outfielder: switch hitter, plays hard, works the count, can play all 3 positions, and hit a World Series game 4 pinch-hit homer. This is also the surest sign yet that Coco will be traded, which should bring back some decent quality.
They resigned long reliever and spot-starter Kyle Snyder. If you can find a pitcher for less than $1 million who can start if needed - though he didn't last year - and pitch all year with an ERA under 4.00 and not complain about his roll, you sign him. Great signing.

The Mayaa

2008-02-01T17:57:00.000-05:00

I'm sure some of you think this Santana non-deal is the story of the hour in Sox world. Y0u are wrong.

The story of the moment is the signing of Sean "The Mayor" Casey to backup Youkilis at first base. There are a few things at play here.

Casey is a 3-time allstar who can still play the game (with an otherworldly lack of power). I can't imagine he'll play as little as Hinske did. And if he does, he won't hit anywhere close to the .296 he hit last year in 143 games with the Tigers. The man has never played fewer than 120 games in a season. I think we can expect pretty paltry offense, but good at bats, from Casey. Unfortunately it's not just raw talents like our old fiend Wily Mo Pena who can't hit when they play only once a week.

This move gives the team flexibility at first and third (by moving Youk to third when Lowell needs a breather). However, they will be less flexible than last year since Hinske could play a decent corner outfield.

So, that means right now that Coco Crisp will start the season as the backup outfielder. And he will not be happy. Can you even imagine that? An unhappy Coco? It's like a melancholy hyena or an uncute kitten: it's unnatural.

I still believe the better move would have been to allow rookie outfielder Brandon Moss to back up Youk at first and play some offense. Moss would have been a liability defensively at first, but, guess what, you have the reigning gold glover who could come in for a late inning defensive replacement and still get 8 innings of rest. I asked this question of the Globe's Nick Cafardo and he said that this is under consideration. He said, "Moss didn't get to play as much first this winter as the Sox had hoped." I probably should be sorry for quoting an email from Nick (yes, first name basis), but I'm not. I'm willing to bet that Nick, Danny, Bobo and the rest have not (yet) discovered BosoxWally as a key resource for unresearched hunches, something I'm sure they are searching for.

I digress... you're welcome.

The point is: with Casey officially in the fold, one question remains. Who is the mayor now? What will be the rules surrounding the pending death match between the two claimants for the title of "the mayor". How will Sean Casey defend himself against the homegrown fury that is Lou Merloni. I don't know. I don't want to know. It might get ugly in Framingham.

The Catching Situation

2008-01-28T20:39:00.000-05:00

The Sox have a situation looming at catcher. Jason Varitek is getting old and every year that he's our only viable option is a greater risk. This season he'll be 36 years old. That's pretty old for a catcher. Tek made the majors at 25 years old, but he caught all his life so that probably won't help the wear and tear. I remember a few old catchers from my childhood.

Here are a few:

Gary Carter - he was 38 when he retired. By the time he hit 35, he was playing very limited time (no more than 101 games the last 4 seasons). He's a hall of famer who started playing in the majors at 20 years old.
Carlton Fisk (of Bellows Falls, Vt.) - I think he's still playing somewhere. He's the captain of a team in Guam where Julio Franco is called "kid." The man played mlb at the age of 45. That's actually illegal in some countries. That's why he couldn't play whenever the White Sox played in Toronto. It's true. Look it up. Wait. Don't. Just trust me...
Tony Pena - This guy was uber flexible. I also think that he could probably have fit inside one Veritek quadricep. Pena was 40 when he retired, though he was 36 when he stopped playing regularly. Also, he was not as good a player at 'Tek.

Now, I think we all know the answer: let's just hand the reigns over to Dougy Miribelli. Done.

If that fails, where does that leave us. We have George Kottaras as probably our top prospect. We acquired him from San Diego for David Wells. I don't know a bunch about him, but he did struggle offensively in AAA last year, and that's supposed to be his greatest asset.

Dusty Brown made it as far as AAA on his defense. I get the sense that the Sox are pretty high on him, but he's obviously not some great superstar in the making. He might be the best option though to get worked into the majors and see if he could take over. He is 25 years old now.

Jon Still is a bit of a wild card. He's 23 years old and apparently pretty talented. But he's a part time catcher and in A ball. So, he's not exactly ready. I know that catchers develop more slowly than other positions, but we need to have an option ready soon.

Here are a few others I came across: Mark Wagner (A ball, 23 years old), Ty Weeden (Rookie League, gigantic, 20 years old), me (glorious)...

Ok, I'll stop writing. But my point is that the Sox don't seem to have an apparent answer to this mounting problem. We've been lucky that 'Tek can still play. That luck might not last and I wish I had some idea what, if any, plan the Sox had.

Young Pitching

2008-01-23T22:41:00.000-05:00

As it seems more and more likely that Johan Santana will not be a Red Sox (Sock?), I've been thinking a lot about the benefit of this no trade: keeping our youngins.

On that front, it's interesting to me how much we all love young pitchers. I'm so excited to see what Buchholz and Lester can do. I'm was happy to read about Justin Masterson as a Derek Lowe clone. Excitement wise, I'm more excited about these guys then I would be with Santana. That is NOT to say that I think we're a better team sans Johan. I do think though that there is something uniquely captivating and exciting about watching young pitchers step up - or fail - in the big leagues.

I'm going to leave that thought there for now. I have my thoughts on the matter, but I'll let people muse for a bit - or more than a bit perhaps given my recently postless track record. Then I'll come back and bring the knowledge. Feel free to comment (and be skooled).

Are we the Yankees?

2007-12-08T19:00:00.000-05:00

A friend of mine yesterday expressed a worry that I think many of us have been contemplating: are the Sox, or even Boston sports as a whole, becoming Yankees-level evil?

We've won 2 recent world series, every major available player seems destined to enter a 2-team bidding war, we have a combination of youth and high-priced bought talent that could keep us at or near the top of the division for years, going to a Sox game is no longer affordable for most families of four (somehow seems relevant to this)...

Still, the answer is no.

Aside from the obvious general moral superiority of Sox fandom to Yankees purgatory, the Sox are not just buying their way to the top. They have amassed a great deal of talent by good scouting (college, high school, preschool (don't ask) and international) and through patience. Some recent years, the Sox have had a good team but not good enough to win. In those years, the front office didn't sell the talent for Larry Anderson.

Also, we do not have any Steinbrenner, let alone a fading patriarch and his hatched brood. There isn't a player or a front office character that everyone hates. Some people don't like Papi's theatrics, but, unlike say Paul O'Neil those people still generally seem to want to hang out with him.

I think there are a lot of different arguments that could be made on this topic - and I welcome any thoughts - but one that just came to me which argues that we are on the path to pinstripes is this: more and more fans from the rest of the league seem to dislike the Sox and their fans, they resent the kids returning from college to their hometown with a Sox hat, etc. Yet, I'm concerned that Sox fans are now starting to dismiss these fights with the patronizing old Yanks-fan standby of "they're jealous". Didn't that used to piss you off? Let's all just be defensive and protective of our Sox, not patronizing. Patronizing sucks.

For this logic and wisdom, you don't have to pay anything. You. Are. Welcome.

P.S. I promised the same friend I'd post a link to this commentary about Boston sports from NPR by Frank DeFord, enjoy.